For clear insight into regional Base oils-Lubes markets, you need in-depth price reports direct from those regions.
That’s why ICIS maintains a network of locally based reporters, providing not just price assessments but market commentary and analysis.
Updated to Q3 2021
The Group I supply outlook is mixed for Q3. There may be some relief seen in July and August, after several plants returned from maintenance in early June. Most refineries in Europe are already sold out until mid-August for the export market, but domestic availability is anticipated to improve during the quarter. Availability is expected to improve heading into August as plants that were on turnaround in H2 June build up stocks.
Group I buyers are on the sidelines heading in early Q3, with significant push-back seen about accepting higher prices. Several players are almost out of stocks however, and this is expected to boost demand in July. Overall demand will remain firm as long as the current shortages continue. There will likely be a dip in demand during August as several downstream plants shutdown for several weeks during the summer holidays.
Imports from the US are expected to fall in the first half of Q3 due to tightness in the US market. The US market is also gearing up for hurricane season, which may disrupt production. European production is unlikely to see much change in Q3. However, there may be further tightness in the market due to limited imports.
Demand is expected to remain healthy in Q3, with a season pull in the summer. Meanwhile, spot availability is likely to tighten. If Group II becomes harder to source and Group I prices become more attractive as blenders may substitute Group II with Group I.
Supply is expected to increase following the end of planned maintenance in Europe. However, demand is likely to remain high and as such it will take some time for supply and demand fundamentals to balance out.
Strong demand is expected in Q3 as the typical peak demand season in the automotive sector. Refinery run rates are likely to remain below average and as such supply will be unable to meet demand in the short term.
We offer the following regional Base oils-Lubes analysis and news coverage to keep you informed of factors and developments affecting prices in the Base oils-Lubes marketplace.
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