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Updated to Q4 2020
Group I
Domestic Group I supply is anticipated to improve at least slightly in Q4 as several plants recover from constraints at the end of Q3. Brightstock supply is likely to remain limited through October, with global tightness further lowering availability of heavier grades. Export availability is expected to remain low during October, with some refiners expected to re-enter the market in November.
Domestic European demand could see further a improvement as the automotive industry continues to recover. Buying interest will see a seasonal drop in December as players begin to de-stock. Export market demand could see a boost in October due to a continued shortage in supply. A limited structural improvement in availability is expected in the export market due to ongoing concerns about a second wave of the coronavirus in some key destinations.
Group II
Group II supply is expected to remain tight while outages in the US continue. Q4 began with Phillips 66’s Excel Paralubes’ refinery in shutdown, although other hurricane-related shutdowns ended in late September. Availability in October will be limited until US imports resume, which should see supply stabilise.
European Group II demand will remain healthy while supply constraints continue. Early Q4 will likely see strong demand, with a possible tail-off towards the end of the year. Once availability improves, demand will balance market conditions.
Group III
Supply constraints are expected to ease slightly over Q4. With limited turnarounds scheduled and some suppliers awaiting deliveries from overseas, the spot market should become more balanced.
Demand will remain steady for most of Q4, although a seasonal dip in activity may be seen later in the year. Purchases may slow down from the surge during the peak demand season of Q3, although there will be some demand from the recovering automotive sector.
We offer the following regional Base oils-Lubes analysis and news coverage to keep you informed of factors and developments affecting prices in the Base oils-Lubes marketplace.
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