For clear insight into regional Base oils-Lubes markets, you need in-depth price reports direct from those regions.
That’s why ICIS maintains a network of locally based reporters, providing not just price assessments but market commentary and analysis.
Updated to Q1 2021
European Group I availability is expected to remain fairly limited, with refinery run rates likely to remain low until fuel demand sees a significant boost. Players are hopeful that run rates will increase during Q2 following announcements of coronavirus vaccines. Export market supply will likely continue to be tight in Q1, though slightly more material is expected out of refineries in January, reaching export destinations in February.
European domestic and export demand will remain strong as long as shortages persist in the region. Structural demand will not see any major improvement until interest in the automotive industry picks up. This sector is not expected to significantly grow until at least Q2. Export demand will continue from destinations including west Africa, India and in some cases South America, as long as global tightness is ongoing.
European domestic Group II supply is expected to remain tight until US exports increase. Some sellers expect imports from the US by late January, though it will take some time to replenish stocks after a lengthy period of tightness.
Demand is expected to remain healthy this quarter, particularly due to tight supply. The lubricants industry is in full swing, regardless of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Market sentiment remains bullish.
Tightness in the European domestic Group III market is expected to persist in Q1 2021. Because jet fuel demand is expected to remain low, this will continue to drive lower operating rates for base oils in Europe. As a result, availability is unlikely to improve. In the meantime, demand is expected to remain high.
Demand is expected to continue rising in Q1, with some customers desperate for product in December likely to remain eager for stock as soon as it is replenished. Business is expected to start up quickly after the New Year, with many having already booked January orders at the end of 2020.
We offer the following regional Base oils-Lubes analysis and news coverage to keep you informed of factors and developments affecting prices in the Base oils-Lubes marketplace.
News & analysis
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