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Updated to Q3 2021
Supply is expected to continue rising as Iran’s output increases. Expectations of a new deal with major powers which could see the lifting of some sanctions may also lead to higher supply, but COVID-19 remains a threat. Domestic blending requirements and shipping issues may also to continue to restrict supply.
Demand in the UAE market for Iranian material is expected to be stable as inventories remain sufficient and increasing with the higher supply expected in coming months. Downstream demand, especially in automotive, is not expected to see a significant increase. Blenders are likely to keep buying only as necessary, especially during the slower summer months in the Middle East.
Middle East Group II 150N and 500N spot supply in Q3 is expected to continue to be tight as some major Asian refiners have prioritised backlogged orders shipments for contract customers. Some flexi-bag shipments may continue to be offered, but firm shipment costs would affect buying interest. Regional supplies from Middle Eastern producers are expected to become more regular, helping to alleviate the Asian shortages.
Demand is expected to remain stable or slightly higher in Q3 as many blenders are facing a lack of available spot supply and inventories are running low. However, downstream demand, especially in the automotive sector, is not expected to see significant increases. Blenders are likely to keep buying only as necessary, especially during the slower summer months in the Middle East.
Middle East Group III base oils supply is expected to be stable to tight. Contract obligations to buyers in Asia and the US among major Middle Eastern refiners could still result in limited spot volumes available to buyers in the Middle East region. Contractual supply from a key supplier in the region is also expected to ease some of the supply tightness in coming months.
Middle East Group III base oils demand is expected to be stable or higher in Q3 as blenders have resumed operations in a post-lockdown environment. Group III consumption is likely to remain limited. Many blenders are facing a lack of available spot supply, but contractual supply could ease some of the tightness. Downstream demand, especially in automotive sector, is not expected to see significant growth, especially during the slower summer months in the Middle East.
We offer the following regional Base oils-Lubes analysis and news coverage to keep you informed of factors and developments affecting prices in the Base oils-Lubes marketplace.
News & analysis
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The main use for base oils is in the manufacture of lubricants, of which there are many thousands of types.
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ICIS price assessments are based on information gathered from a wide cross section of the market, comprising consumers, producers, traders and distributors. Confirmed deals, verified by both buyer and seller, provide the foundation of our price assessments, giving you a robust reference for your negotiations.
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