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Updated to Q4 2020
Phosphates supply in Asia is expected to be lower in Q4 as Chinese producers focus on the domestic market and celebrate the Golden Week holiday. Players expect the market to be stable-to-firm until mid-November at least. Supply is expected to become tighter in Q4 if Moroccan producer OCP is awarded the annual Ethiopia purchase tender for 1.1m tonnes of NPS (four grades).
Demand in Q4 is expected to increase in Asia, especially in India, following a good monsoon, and in Pakistan. After OCP settled phosphoric acid contract prices for Q4 deliveries to India at an increase from Q3, it will be cheaper to import DAP rather than produce it domestically using phosphoric acid.
Q4 supply is expected to be steady for phosphates as producers continue to ship product to Europe. As demand slows in the southern hemisphere in Q4, producers will be targeting the continent for business. Russian producers will focus on domestic and regional markets due to their geographical advantage and a lack of demand from the Americas. Buyers will be getting ready for spring 2021.
Demand is looking subdued for Q4, as it is too early to buy for the upcoming season. There is some demand for small lots, but buyers are not interested in making enquiries for product. Also, most producers increased their offers for product following the settlement of the phosphoric acid Q4 contract price in India at an increase, although buyers were reluctant to accept these levels.
Supply is expected to increase, but to what degree is not clear. Due to the restrictions on certain imports, supply is considered tight. So the domestic market will need to attract volumes before year’s end. That material will be necessary to cover post-harvest needs but also for spring.
With farmers seeing improved crop prices, and set to receive more government assistance early in Q4, they are expected to have more money for crop input. The quick appreciation in prices last quarter caused some purchasing to be deferred and this will need to be completed to avoid logistical issues if fall demand is significant.
Phosphate fertilizers news and market information products from ICIS
We offer the following regional Phosphate fertilizers analysis and news coverage to keep you informed of factors and developments affecting prices in the Europe & US Phosphate fertilizers marketplace.
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