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Updated to Q2 2021
Asian producers, especially Chinese, will focus on the export market in Q2 following three months of a strong domestic season and limited export availability. Also, OCP is expected to focus on phosphoric acid and NPS production as well as shipping product to the region and Latin America following the imposition of US duties.
Demand is expected to be strong, as India and Pakistan are poised to step back to the market. Especially for India, the phosphoric acid contract price for Q2 deliveries is expected to be settled at an increase, so it will be cheaper to import DAP rather than produce it domestically using phosphoric acid. Moreover, buyers and importers will be getting ready for the peak monsoon season in the summer.
Supply will be steady in Q2, as north African producers will focus on export of processed phosphates and netbacks are favourable. Also, Russian producers see demand from the domestic and regional markets for spring application and will be shipping product to the region. Moreover, product that will not be sent to the US can find a home in the continent for spring.
Spring demand is expected to be down as product has already been purchased and shipped. Farmers are busy spreading fertilizers and are not expected to return to the market until Q3. Following a strong Q1, producers are shipping contract volumes to customers on the continent and the summer months are expected to be slow. Phosphates buyers in Europe are also weary of the high offers from producers and reluctant to make new purchases.
The supply situation is seen as remaining constant. This stable outlook considers that there would be no significant production issues arise for domestic producers. Domestic consumption will depend on that output. The import situation looks to remain unchanged.
Demand should increase because there will be large plantings this season, which will leave farmers with significant needs to cover through the end of the quarter. With some applications having been skipped or reduced at end of 2020, there could also be more buying over this period than typically seen.
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