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Updated to Q4 2019
Phosphates supply to the European market in the fourth quarter is expected to remain stable, as most producers will be focusing on the continent where they can get better freight and netbacks. Especially, north African producers will concentrate on Europe, as demand in other regions is slow. There are expectations that following a slow summer, producers will ship a lot of product to Europe. Russian suppliers are already shipping cargoes to the regional and domestic markets.
Phosphates demand in Europe is expected to be high for autumn, as buyers have not made enough purchases during the summer and due to some adverse weather during spring application has been pushed back. After the summer when buyers return to the market there are estimates that they will make purchases from traditional supply outlets, as most of the key regions in Europe come into season. Purchase enquiries have started already and suppliers are starting to ship volumes.
With production curtailments by Mosaic commencing at start of the quarter the market will see less inventory through the end of the year. There could also be a further dip coming within the overall supply stockpile as growers who have carryover volumes and did not have the opportunity to apply phosphate this past spring might try to boost soil levels if the weather cooperates.
With expectations that the challenging agricultural market conditions will remain in place and present an obstacle for the fertilizer sector, this quarter should see less demand for post-harvest. While it is hoped that 2020 will be a rebound period for US farmers, there is increasing reluctance to commit to additional inputs and any short-term needs could be covered by inventory carried over from missed spring applications.
Phosphate fertilizers news and market information products from ICIS
We offer the following regional Phosphate fertilizers analysis and news coverage to keep you informed of factors and developments affecting prices in the Europe & US Phosphate fertilizers marketplace.
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