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Updated to Q3 2021
Supply is expected to be stable, as Chinese buyers have returned to the export market and will be focusing on demand coming from southeast Asia. Production rates at domestic DAP/MAP plants are running at normal rates and producers are comfortable for summer availability. The award of the 700,000 tonne Bangladeshi DAP import tender is expected to give some price direction to the market and also absorb some tonnage from the market.
Indian DAP buyers are expected to return to the import market soon, as the monsoon season this year, which has started already, is predicted to be normal. India needs to buy product for this year, especially as phosphoric acid prices in the country remain high and it is cheaper to import DAP. In Pakistan, demand for this season is already being met through previous imports and DAP buyers can afford to wait until August to make new purchases.
Supply is expected to be stable, as producers are looking into the continent and shipping product to countries where they can achieve better netbacks due to high freight rates. Russian producers, in particular, are expected to focus on Europe, as demand from Latin America winds down and import duties for Russian imports are imposed in the US.
Demand in the northern hemisphere will be slowing down for DAP seasonally and Europe is mostly covered with previous purchases. High global DAP prices are preventing buyers from making purchases and they can afford to wait until the end of the summer. On the other hand, there is solid demand for NPKs from eastern Europe, mainly Poland and the Baltic states, and Russian producers are expected to be focused on these shipments.
The upcoming quarter will see the supply situation increasing, with volumes rising mainly because there will be less need as crops mature towards harvest. This improving outlook assumes there will be no significant production issues and that refilling efforts will be consuming typical volumes.
Demand will decrease, as there will be reduced buying compared with the peak of consumption seen in the previous quarter. The pace of barges from New Orleans (Nola) to the interior outlets will be lighter, although there will be some further movement for refill efforts that arise.
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