Potash

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Since 2021 the global muriate of potash (MOP) fertilizer market has endured a wave of change not seen since the collapse of the Russia/Belarus trading cartel in 2013. Sanctions imposed by Western nations on Belarus’ vast potash export industry and companies supporting Russia’s MOP mining firms has led to an extended period of unrest, all-time-high prices, and a dramatic shift in supply/demand dynamics.

ICIS’ global MOP report offers valuable insights into the “new normal” of global potash trading, as nations move to secure tonnage from new sources, producers attempt new trade routes, and upstart companies such as Anglo American and Brazil Potash angle in on a share of the 98m tonne/year trade.

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Potash news

With crop yields up overall, Canadian farmers grew more soybeans but less corn in 2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Canadian farmers reported growing more wheat, oats, soybeans, dry peas and lentils, but less canola, corn and barley in 2024, according to the production of principle fields crops report from Statistics Canada. The government agency said that overall yields were higher this year compared with 2023 but there were some areas where farmers continued to face issues related to dry conditions. This was true particularly in western Canada, which the report states had a promising start to the 2024 growing season. It noted that much of the prairies received timely precipitation during seeding, although cool conditions delayed crop development in some areas. Yet a lack of rain as the summer progressed, coupled with hot weather, resulted in lower yields in some areas compared with 2023. There were good field conditions throughout the fall months which allowed farmers to complete harvest ahead of schedule, with most crops out of the fields before data collection for the November field crop survey. The agency said there were locations that did receive above-average rainfall, specifically in Ontario and western Quebec, which when combined with increased summer heat benefitted growers with higher yields. Total wheat production rose 6.1% to 35 million tonnes in 2024, with Saskatchewan wheat production rising 12.2% to 16.5 million tonnes in 2024. In Alberta, higher yields resulted in a 6.4% increase in wheat production to 9.9 million tonnes, while Manitoba was up 0.7% to 5.5 million tonnes. Canola production decreased 7.0% nationally to 17.8 million tonnes in 2024, with this drop because of lower yields and harvested area, with the declined output attributed to the hot and dry conditions in parts of western Canada in July and August. Total corn for grain production fell 0.5% to 15.3 million tonnes in 2024 with harvested area down by 4.6% to 3.6 million acres, offsetting a 4.3% increase in yields to 168.7 bushels/acre. Ontario farmers, who grow almost two-thirds of Canada's corn were down 3.5% to 9.6 million tonnes, while Quebec rose 7.9% to 3.6 million tonnes in 2024. Manitoba farmers had 1.8 million tonnes in 2024 with lower harvested area, but yields were up 8.6% to 139.4 bushels/acre. Soybean production increased 8.4% nationally to 7.6 million tonnes in 2024 with the increase due to higher yields, which were up by 7.0% to stand at 49.1 bushels/acre, while the harvested area for the crop increased 1.3% to 5.7 million acres. In Ontario soybean production climbed 7.9% year on year to 4.4 million tonnes in 2024, while in Manitoba the harvested area fell 10.9% to 1.4 million acres in 2024. Production in Quebec rose 9.3% to 1.4 million tonnes in 2024, on higher yields and harvested area. Barley production was decreased by 8.6% to 8.1 million tonnes in 2024 because of lower harvested area, which the report said was partially offset by a 3.3% increase in yields to 63.2 bushels/acre nationally. Total oat production increased by 27.0% to 3.4 million tonnes as both harvested area and yields increased in 2024. The improvements in crop output reflects the sentiment towards fertilizer consumption within in Canada this year, with nitrogen and potash volumes having robust periods of consumption during the spring. There were additional stretches of demand with significant refill participant and a good post-harvest run of ammonia also taking place before the recent arrival of winter conditions. Sentiment is that spring demand could continue at a strong pace if nutrient values do not escalate over the coming weeks and if future crop prices either stay steady or can gain some slightly increase before sowings start again.

05-Dec-2024

Eastern EU nations call for duties on imports of fertilizers from Russia and Belarus

LONDON (ICIS)–Countries such as Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have submitted a letter to the European Commission calling for customs duty to be imposed on imports of fertilizers from Russia and Belarus, the Polish Ministry of Development and Technology has confirmed. The duty being discussed is 30-40% for nitrogen, phosphate and potash fertilizers. Market participants believe a duty is unlikely to be imposed given Europe’s dependence on Russian fertilizer, especially when gas prices are rising, which could hit domestic production in Europe. European buyers have delayed imports, including of urea, to the first quarter of 2025. It is unlikely any government would want to antagonize the farming community further when there have been protests by farmers across many countries over the cost of inputs and taxes. Domestic producers, including in northwest Europe such as Germany, have been campaigning for duties on Russian fertilizers, but met with no success. Local producers say imports are available at competitive prices, partly due to the low cost of Russian natural gas. This puts pressure on European producers, particularly when it comes to remaining competitive while maintaining profitability. The concern is that the lower Russian prices could lead to an oversupply, creating unfair competition for European suppliers who may not be able to match those prices. There is also a broader concern about Europe, and Germany in particular, becoming too dependent on Russian resources – both in terms of urea and potentially other agricultural inputs. Data from the first eight months of the year shows an increase of more than 50% in fertilizer imports to the EU from Russia compared with the same period last year. In January-August, Russia was the biggest supplier of urea to Poland, at 426,342 tonnes, more than double the 207,981 tonnes in the same period of 2023, according to customs data. Additional reporting by Julia Meehan Thumbnail image source: Shutterstock

22-Nov-2024

Advancing Banio project, Millennial Potash gains progress on Gabon port and power plant efforts

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Canadian fertilizer developer Millennial Potash, which is advancing the Banio Potash project in Gabon, announced it has achieved progress at both the Mengali port construction site and the new thermal electricity plant. The company said the port and power generation station represent critical infrastructure enhancements and are integral for a successful potash project, with the Mengali port a key part of the Grande Mayumba Programme, a joint venture for sustainable development between the Republic of Gabon and the African Conservation Development Group. Currently international construction firm Covec Gabon is undertaking earthworks for the port with development set to proceed in phases, but it will eventually be able to accommodate barges and landing craft. Future phases will involve constructing a mineral terminal, storage area, and stacker reclaimer with a conveyor system for loading large ocean-going vessels. It is expected to provide a vital infrastructure link for the Banio project as it would allow for export of bulk potash to overseas markets. Millennial said construction has commenced on a thermal power generation station located south of Mayumba, near the airport, with present work including foundation construction within the facility compound. The power station is scheduled to arrive by barge at Mengali port later this year and is expected to be installed and operational by mid-2025. The construction of the first phase, with a capacity of 8.5 megawatts, is expected to be completed in July 2025. The power plant project is under the direction of contractor Nuez et Fils and it is estimated that the total investment will be approximately $125 million. The company said the new power plant at Mayumba is viewed as a major infrastructure advancement for the region and this new reliable power source is expected to stimulate regional development. “These infrastructure developments are crucial for advancing the project and enhancing the economic viability of our proposed solution mining and conventional processing methods for potash production. The construction of the port and power plant, along with the associated infrastructure, will significantly mitigate risks related to future mining, processing, and shipping operations,” said Farhad Abasov, Millennial Potash chair. “Millennial remains committed to supporting the Gabonese government’s efforts to develop infrastructure in southern Gabon and will keep shareholders informed on the progress of these projects.” The Banio project is in the south-west corner of Gabon, approximately 450 km south of Libreville along the Atlantic coast. The maiden mineral resource estimate showed an indicated mineral resource estimate of 656.6 million tonnes at a grade of 15.9%, with an inferred mineral resource estimate of 1.15 billion tonnes at a grade of 16%.

13-Nov-2024

Nutrien said fall fertilizer demand being supported by early harvest, need to replenish soil

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Nutrien said demand in North America for the fall fertilizer application has been supported by a relatively early harvest along with the need to replenish soil nutrients following a period of lower field activity in the third quarter. In its latest market outlook, the Canadian fertilizer major said favorable growing conditions in the US have supported expectations for record corn and soybean yields and significant soil nutrient removal in 2024. The company did note that prospective crop margins have declined compared to the historically high levels in recent years, however Nutrien’s view is most growers in the key region of the US Midwest remain in a healthy financial position. One positive factor that the producer sees is that global grain stocks remain below historical average levels which support export demand for North American crops and firm prices for key agriculture commodities such as rice, sugar and palm oil. Looking at crop nutrient, Nutrien said it has raised 2024 global potash shipment forecast to 70 million – 72 million tonnes primarily driven by stronger expected demand in Brazil and Southeast Asia. The company said it believes the increase in global shipments this year has been driven by an underlying increase in consumption in key markets. The forecast for global potash shipments in 2025 is between 71 million – 74 million tonnes, which Nutrien said supported by the need to replenish soil nutrient levels and the relative affordability of potash. It does anticipate limited new capacity next year and the potential for incremental supply tightness with demand growth. Regarding global ammonia the producer said prices have been supported by supply outages, project delays and higher European natural gas values. For urea Nutrien said that Chinese export restrictions, production challenges from major exporters and strong demand from India and Brazil have tightened the global urea market. It noted that US nitrogen inventory was estimated to be well below average levels at the end of the third quarter, and the company is expecting it will support demand in the fourth quarter of 2024 and early 2025. For global phosphates, the situation remains tight which is furthered by Chinese export restrictions and production outages in the US. Nutrien said it anticipates some impact on global demand due to tight supply and weaker affordability relative to potash and nitrogen.

06-Nov-2024

US fertilizer segment watching but not overly concerned over Canada port strike activity

HOUSTON (ICIS)–As a fresh labor union strike halted activity at Canadian ports along its west coast on Monday, US fertilizer participants were watching the latest worker strife unfold with only moderate concerns over how this activity might disrupt nutrient flow. Fertilizer sources noted that the sentiment currently is that this work stoppage could be short in duration, as other recent strike actions have turned out with similar results. As a US trader said, the prior halt of the railroads in Canada “didn't seem to have much effect on the market last time”. If this strike activity were to carry forward, domestic sources highlighted that it would not be a widespread event for fertilizers in the US as it would be felt primarily within the potash segment as well as for sulphur movement. With a domestic participant commenting that for the other nutrients, especially the nitrogen-based offerings, that this latest event “hasn't yet affected us or any pricing”. This segment of west coast ports is estimated to move over 21,000 tonnes of potash daily for oversea shipment, with Fertilizer Canada calculating this latest shutdown could cost the industry around (C$) 9.7 million ($7.0 million) per day in lost sales revenue. The industry group had cautioned ahead of the strike occurring that another disruption to Canada’s supply chains would further damage the country’s reputation as a dependable trading partner and jeopardizes food security around the world. “We are once again on the brink of losing access to a critical trade corridor, and potash fertilizer will be one of the hardest hit commodities,” said Karen Proud, Fertilizer Canada president and CEO. The group noted that the 2023 labor disruption of west coast ports cost the fertilizer industry over C$126 million and took 13 days to resolve and that Canada lost significant market share to Russia in key markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia afterwards. Fertilizer major Nutrien said its main concern was that the strike action will prevent potash marketing agency Canpotex from exporting volumes out of the Port of Vancouver. “Canpotex is exploring alternatives to mitigate the potential impact to customers, however a prolonged disruption could negatively impact farmers and food security around the globe,” said a Nutrien spokesperson. “We urge the parties to come to an agreement before damage is done to Canada’s reputation as a reliable, global potash supplier.” ($1 = C$1.39)

04-Nov-2024

Australia Kore Potash completes Kola project EPC contract

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Australian Kore Potash announced it has finalised the agreement on the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for the Kola project with PowerChina International Group Limited (PowerChina) on 28 October. Kore Potash and PowerChina are now working towards convening a date which is currently set for 19 November for the signing ceremony with the Minister of Mines and other officials in the Republic of Congo-Brazzaville. In an update on financing, the company said it continues to work with the Summit Consortium to provide for the construction cost and is intended to be based on royalty and debt finance. Kore Potash added that the financing parties have confirmed their ongoing strong interest and has advised that the term sheet will be provided within three months of the execution of the EPC contract. The company does plan to conduct a small capital fund raise in November to finance working capital. Kola is expected to be designed with the capability to produce 2.2 million tonnes/year of granular muriate of potash (MOP) over an initial 31-year life.

31-Oct-2024

Highfield Resources said Muga project concession not relinquished but is under further review

HOUSTON (ICIS)– Spanish fertilizer firm Highfield Resources announced that the Navarra Government has not relinquished the Goyo mining concession, which is one of the three mining concessions for their Muga potash project in Spain. The company said it wanted to clarify the issue as there was previously a procedural flaw which has been identified in the internal administrative coordination process for the granting of the mining concession. There were no details provided regarding the mistake in the process, but Highfield Resources did say it has received confirmation that the ruling is being analyzing. Further, the company said the government stated it will resolve the situation as soon as possible to enable the implementation of the project, which it said has already been evaluated with sufficient rigor. Highfield Resources said at Goyo the production from that section is only expected to happen after year six of their mining plan.

28-Oct-2024

Agrimin potash project awaits investment decision, advances on Australia environmental approval

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Agrimin Limited said their Mackay potash project in Western Australia is continuing to advance towards a final investment decision and that the development is now in the stage three assessment with the environmental regulators. The project is planned to be able to manufacture standard and granular sulphate of potash (SOP) products with its definitive feasibility study (DFS), completed in July 2020, showing that once in operation it could be the world’s lowest cost source of seaborne SOP. In a quarterly update on activities, the company said the timeline from the Western Australian Environmental Protection Authority is still expected to come in 2024, with supplementary government approval expected to follow in the first half of 2025. Agrimin said it is also progressing on the other secondary approvals and licenses necessary for the project with the Department of Energy, Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety and the Department of Water and Environmental Regulation. Regarding the final investment decision, the company said it is undertaking activities to reach that status including engineering efforts with advanced process testing and preparation for contractor involvement. It is also engaged in execution planning with a focus on critical path analysis and mitigation including earliest possible environmental surveys and baseline monitoring. Agrimin said it will also be working on funding for the project including potential strategic partnerships.

28-Oct-2024

MOVES: US Intrepid Potash announces Jornayvaz steps down as CEO

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US fertilizer producer Intrepid Potash announced that Bob Jornayvaz has stepped down as Chief Executive Officer and as a director of the board following his extended medical leave of absence. The Denver-based producer had previously announced Jornayvaz was injured in an accident while playing in the US Open Polo Championship in April and was on extended medical leave of absence. “We are thankful to Bob for his immeasurable contributions to the company over the last two decades,” said Barth Whitham, Chair of the Board. “Bob led numerous initiatives that strengthened our customer relationships, modernized our operations, and capitalized on our unique position as the only domestic producer of potash. He took great pride in the company and its contributions to the domestic and global agriculture industry. Bob and his family remain in our thoughts, and we continue to wish him well in his recovery.” Intrepid said their Chief Financial Officer Matt Preston will continue to serve as acting principal executive officer as the Board of Directors’ search to identify and select a new CEO. “The board’s search for a CEO is well underway. In the interim, we are pleased to continue to have Matt and the rest of the management team lead the execution of Intrepid’s strategic plan,” Whitham said. Intrepid is the only US producer of muriate of potash and also delivers volumes of magnesium, sulfur, salt and water products for use in not only agriculture and for animal feed, but also within the oil and gas industry.

04-Oct-2024

American Potash receives federal approval for Utah potash and lithium project plans

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Fertilizer developer American Potash announced the US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has approved their plan of operations at the Green River project in Utah, including issuing 11 prospecting permits and authorizing four exploratory drill holes. The company now has federal potash exploration permits and has a total of 7 exploratory drill holes authorized and is positioned for confirmation drilling, with expectations that will validate a high-grade potash potential estimated to be between 600 million to 1 billion tonnes of sylvinite. Another outcome is American Potash intends to establish an initial resource for not only potash but also lithium and potential by-products. The project is located 20 miles northwest of Moab, Utah, within the state’s Paradox Basin, which is one of only eight designated potash Super Basins globally with a long history of potash production. The company said recent development work has also validated the location’s potential as one of the largest domestic sources of lithium in the US. “This is a huge step for the company and the culmination of a process lasting several years. It positions the company to be able to drive forward with its business plan to confirm and validate historic data and targets, and to leverage the benefit of nearby production and neighboring development work, through the drill-bit,” said Simon Clarke, American Potash president and CEO. “We now have complete coverage for potash and lithium exploration across our acreage at a time when global events are driving home the need for domestic sources of potash and lithium to secure food and energy independence. We are now positioned to fully validate the strategic potential of our Green River project.”

02-Oct-2024

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