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Updated to Q2 2020
Southeast Asian potash inventories in Q2 are likely to remain stable. Demand is lacking and confusion in the market is widespread, as marine traffic authorities, ports, and private industries alike all scramble to follow often contradictory government antiviral laws. Warehouses are well stocked.
Southeast Asian potash demand is unlikely to increase in Q2, despite skipped applications putting pressure on existing crops, and palm oil futures steadying in early Q1. Government-mandated antiviral measures are putting pressure on production and logistics, and confusing the market outlook.
Potash availability will likely continue to improve in Q2, as fertilizer production is deemed an essential industry, and not subject to government-mandated shutdown. That said, the coronavirus will continue to put pressure on logistics networks. Fieldwork will increase as Q2 continues.
It is likely European demand will increase in Q2 after a lacklustre Q4 2019 and Q1 2020. Farming and fertilizer production are deemed essential practices by most national governments, and though coronavirus-related concerns will likely continue to pressure logistics networks, once warehouses start to empty fresh demand for new volumes will emerge.
As the spring season advances, there will be a need for additional supply as demand at some locations will quickly exhaust carryover volumes and participants will find availability tight, especially at some of the inland outlets. Improving weather will support increased applications and could set up a significant refill period during the summer.
If the spring sowings are not impacted by the virus pandemic or disruptive weather, overall demand should steadily climb as farmers are projected to plant higher acreage this year, which means increased consumption. Given the cautious movement in the prior quarter, product movement and usage will respond accordingly to an elevated pace out in the fields.
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Potash or Potassium (K) is the seventh most common naturally-occurring element in nature, and it is one of the three main macronutrients required for plants…
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