Forecasting for Business Success

Agenda

Why is forecasting important?

• The ability to foresee the future is a huge business advantage

Forecast case studies

• CEO/CFO Perspectives of forecasts

Forecast Accuracy

• Measure accuracy to develop and maintain good forecast models

Forecasting Considerations

• Many factors like cost drivers, seasonality, buyer/seller markets, leading indicators, market time lags, and trigger factors all influence our forecasts

Forecast Methods & Keys

• Delphi method, Market Segment Build up, Statistical, Delta/Ratio, Spreads, Day’s on hand, Stock to use Ratio

Seller & Buyer Markets

• Cost + Margin = Market price vs Margin = Market price – Cost, where the buyers determine the Market price
• Typical Sellers’ Market Forecasts do not perform well during Buyers Markets and vice versa

The Secret Sauce for Forecasting

• Good sauces are made from the right blends of ingredients, like good forecasts use the right factors that yield the best results

Live Demonstration / Workshop

• We look at forecast models for several products and how they work
• The class nominates a product(s) that we walk through and build a forecast