EU ETS White Paper: Brexit risks for the European carbon market

Will the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) experience a smooth ride or organised chaos?

Following the Brexit pathway, the UK will no longer be part of the European Union from April 2019. As of today, the UK government has made no official announcement on the future participation of UK installations within the European carbon market.

This White Paper, provides a scenario-based assessment analysing the impact of Britain’s exit on the EU ETS market balance and as well as our mid-term outlook for EU Allowance (EUA) prices. We found that the most bearish EUA price risk is associated with a scenario where the lead time between the announcement of Brexit and the actual end of compliance obligations for UK installations is reduced to a minimum, and when Brexit takes place before the end of phase three in 2020.

Government Agency / MinistryIndustry AssociationRegulatorStatutory BoardOther
AcidsAlcoholsAromaticsBase Oil / Lubes / Motor OilButadiene / C4 / ElastomersFertilizers / Agri ProductsFibre ChainIntermediatesOlefinsOleochemicalsPhenolics, Chlor-alkaliPolymers / Polyolefins / ThermoplasticsSolventsSurfactantsNaphthaPolyurethane chainSpecialty ChemicalsOther
Carbon EmmissionsCrude OilLNG / Natural GasRefinery By-Products / Petroleum / LPGNaphthaCoal / HydrocarbonGasoline / Jet Kerosene / Fuel OilsPower or ElectricityAcidsAlcoholsAromaticsBase Oil / Lubes / Motor OilButadiene / C4 / ElastomersFertilizers / Agri ProductsFibre ChainIntermediatesOlefinsOleochemicalsPhenolics, Chlor-alkaliPolymers / Polyolefins / ThermoplasticsSolventsSurfactantsPolyurethane chainSpecialty Chemicals
Carbon EmmissionsCrude OilLNG / Natural GasRefinery By-Products / Petroleum / LPGNaphthaCoal / HydrocarbonGasoline / Jet Kerosene / Fuel OilsPower or ElectricityOther
Asset ManagementBrokerageCommodity TradingExchange / Trading PlatformFinancing / LoansInvestments / AcquisitionsInsuranceOther
ChemicalsFertilizers / Agri ProductsCrude OilRefinery By-Products / Petroleum / LPGCoal / HydrocarbonLNG / Natural GasGasoline / Jet Kerosene / Fuel OilsNaphthaGeneral Shipping / Ship BrokingOther Consumer Products and ServicesOther Industrial or B2B Services
Polymer compounders / MasterbatchesAuto Parts / Automobile / TransportFoams / Insulation MaterialsElectronicsFood and BeverageFurniture / Appliances / Home FinishingsMedical / PharmaceuticalPaints / Adhesives / Dyes / Pigments / Epoxy ResinPersonal Care / Soap / Cleaning ProductsPackaging Materials / Plastics OEMPipes / Tubes / Gaskets / Sealants / CablesPulp / PaperRubber Products / TyresTextiles / Yarns / Garments / FabricsOther Consumer Products and ServicesOther Industrial or B2B Services
Crude OilLNG / Natural GasOil Refinery / Refinery Gases / PetroleumNaphthaCoal / HydrocarbonGasoline / Jet Kerosene / Fuel OilsPower or Electricity ProviderMining / Metals / MineralsRenewable Energy / BiofuelsOther
AcidsAlcoholsAromaticsBase Oil / Lubes / Motor OilButadiene / C4 / ElastomersFertilizers / Agri ProductsFibre ChainIntermediatesOlefinsOleochemicalsPhenolics, Chlor-alkaliPolymers / Polyolefins / ThermoplasticsSolventsSurfactantsUpstream FeedstockPolyurethane chainSpecialty ChemicalsOther
Crude OilLNG / Natural GasOil Refinery / Refinery Gases / PetroleumNaphthaCoal / HydrocarbonGasoline / Jet Kerosene / Fuel OilsMining / Metals / MineralsAcidsAlcoholsAromaticsBase Oil / Lubes / Motor OilButadiene / C4 / ElastomersFertilizers / Agri ProductsFibre Chain IntermediatesOlefinsOleochemicalsPhenolics, Chlor-alkaliPolymers / Polyolefins / ThermoplasticsSurfactantsSolventsOther
Oil Refinery / Refinery Gases / PetroleumNaphthaAcidsAlcoholsAromaticsBase Oil / Lubes / Motor OilButadiene / C4 / ElastomersFertilizers / Agri ProductsFibre ChainIntermediatesOlefinsOleochemicalsPhenolics, Chlor-alkaliPolymers / Polyolefins / ThermoplasticsSurfactantsSolventsOther
Business SchoolUniversityOther
ConsultingEngineering / ContractorResearch / Information ServiceLaboratory / R&D FacilitySoftware / Technology ServiceOther Consumer Products and ServicesOther Industrial or B2B Services

We want to keep you up-to-date with what’s happening at ICIS* and tell you about our latest products and other services. We may email you about information we think you’ll be interested in, including selected articles and reminders about forthcoming events. If you do not wish to receive such information please tick the box to opt out of these emails

*ICIS is a tradename of Reed Business Information Limited. By registering your details, you understand that your personal data will be handled according to our Privacy Policy

RELATED DOWNLOADABLE CONTENT