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HOUSTON (ICIS)–US corn and soybean harvest continues to achieve steady progress with both crops now 23% completed according to the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) weekly crop progress report. Farmers in the key regions have seen mostly favourable weather in recent days and are slightly ahead of last year’s pace of 19% and the five-year average of 21%. North Carolina is the leading state with 86% of their acreage completed, followed by Texas at 78% of the crop finished. The amount of corn rated as mature is at 82% with 53% of the crop listed as being in good-excellent condition. For soybeans the current harvest pace of 23% is above the 2022 level of 20% and the five-year average of 22%. Louisianna is the leading state with 86% completed, followed by Mississippi at 70%. There is 86% of the crop now dropping leaves with 52% listed as being in good-excellent condition.

02-Oct-2023

Updated on 2 October. On this topic page, we gather the latest news, analysis and resources, to help you to keep track of developments in the area of sustainability in the fertilizers industry. LATEST NEWS HEADLINES US ADM and Syngenta sign MoU to collaborate on low carbon oilseeds to meet biofuel demand By Mark Milam 28-Sep-23 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and Syngenta Group announced they have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to collaborate in scaling research and commercialization of low carbon oilseeds to help meet rising demand for biofuels and other sustainably sourced products. Tecnicas Reunidas, Allied Green Ammonia to build green hydrogen and green ammonia plant in Australia By Sylvia Traganida 22-Sep-23 LONDON (ICIS)–Tecnicas Reunidas and Allied Green Ammonia have signed an agreement to start the first phases of green hydrogen and green ammonia production facilities in the Northern Territory, Australia. Australian fertilizer producer Orica accelerates climate change targets By Sylvia Traganida 19-Sep-23 LONDON (ICIS)–Australian fertilizers and explosive manufacturer Orica has stepped up its climate change targets amid a strong business performance. Nestle, Cargill and CCm Technologies launch joint UK trial on sustainable fertilizer By Chris Vlachopoulos 12-Sep-23 LONDON (ICIS)–Nestle and Cargill have launched a UK, two-year trial to assess whether cocoa shells from a local confectionery could be used to create low-carbon fertilizer. The volumes of cocoa shells are provided by Cargill, as well as CCm Technologies. EnBW acquires stake in planned Norwegian ammonia plant  By Amun Lie 29-Aug-23 LONDON (ICIS)–German utility EnBW announced on 29 August it has acquired a 10% equity stake and offtake right for a renewable ammonia production plant developed by Norwegian company Skipavika Green Ammonia (SkiGA). The production facility is set to completed in 2026, to be powered by renewable electricity and with a planned production capacity of 100,000 tonnes/year. Yara Germany signs agreement for decarbonisation of cereal cultivation using green fertilizers By Sylvia Traganida 10-Aug-23 LONDON (ICIS)–Yara Germany has signed a co-operation agreement with the Bindewald & Gutting Milling Group and Harry-Brot for the decarbonisation of cereal cultivation in Germany through the use of green fertilizers. Hyphen, ITOCHU ink MoU to explore potential Namibia hydrogen collaboration By Gary Hornby 09-Aug-23 LONDON (ICIS)–Hyphen Hydrogen Energy and the ITOCHU Corporation announced 8 August that the two companies have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) surrounding hydrogen in Namibia. INSIGHT: BASF grapples with demand trough, slow road back By Tom Brown 02-Aug-23 14:12 LONDON (ICIS)–BASF and the wider chemicals sector is dealing with an environment more singular even than the conditions seen in the pandemic and 2008 financial crash according to BASF chief Martin Brudermuller, with little sign of a V-shaped recovery from the current demand trough. EU CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM (CBAM) EXPLAINED What is it? The risk of carbon leakage frustrates the EU’s efforts to meet climate objectives. It occurs when companies transfer production to countries that are less strict on emissions, or when EU products are replaced by more carbon-intensive imports. This new mechanism would counteract this risk by putting a carbon price on imports of certain goods from outside of the EU. How will it work? EU importers will buy carbon certificates corresponding to the carbon price that would have been paid, had the goods been produced under the EU's carbon pricing rules. Conversely, once a non-EU producer can show that they have already paid a price for the carbon used in the production of the imported goods, the corresponding cost can be fully deducted for the EU importer. This will help reduce the risk of carbon leakage by encouraging producers in non-EU countries to make their production processes greener. A reporting system will apply from 2023 with the objective of facilitating a smooth roll out and to facilitate dialogue with non-EU countries. Importers will start paying a financial adjustment in 2026. How is the fertilizer industry affected? The fertilizer industry is one of the sectors to fall under the CBAM. The more energy-intensive nitrogen fertilizers will be affected most in the sector by the mechanism. DEFRA CONSULTATIONS EXPLAINED The UK’s Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) launched a consultation at the beginning of November 2020 on reducing ammonia emissions from urea fertilizers. The consultation ran until 26 January 2021. It set out three options for tackling ammonia emissions: A total ban on solid urea fertilizers A requirement to stabilise solid urea fertilizers with the addition of a urease inhibitor. A requirement to restrict the spreading of solid urea fertilizers to between 15 January and 31 March of a given year. Liquid urea is excluded from any new rules or restrictions. DEFRA is currently analysing the feedback received. In March 2022, DEFRA announced that it had delayed introducing restrictions on the use of urea by at least a year to support farmers with fertilizer availability and keep their costs down Should DEFRA decide to restrict the use of urea in the future, growers would be left with just ammonium nitrate-based fertilizers. PREVIOUS  NEWS HEADLINES SABIC AN ships low-carbon urea to New Zealand US Cargill and John Deere collaborate to enable revenue for farmers adopting sustainability Canada’s Lucent Bio announces approval of biodegradable nutrient delivery patent Aker, Statkraft’s 10-year PPA to spur European renewable ammonia push further BASF, Yara Clean Ammonia to evaluate low-carbon blue ammonia production facility in US Gulf Coast Yara Clean Ammonia, Cepsa to launch clean hydrogen maritime corridor EU details CBAM reporting obligations Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden exports its first low-carbon blue ammonia shipments to China US Bunge and Nutrien Ag announce alliance to support sustainable farming practices Maire subsidiary Stamicarbon wins US green ammonia engineering contract India’s IFFCO launches liquid nano-DAP fertilizer EU Parliament backs CBAM, emissions trading measures OCP granted €100m green loan to build solar plants at Morocco facilities EU unveils plans to tackle greenwashing India’s IFFCO and CIL to manufacture nano DAP for three years USDA awards Ostara funds to boost sustainable phosphate fertilizer output Canadian prime minister confirms fertilizer emission goal is voluntary US fertilizers industry increases carbon capture in 2021 – TFI Indian president calls for reduction in chemical fertilizer use IFFCO plans to export nano urea to 25 countries Amman selects Elessent Clean Technologies for Indonesia sulphuric acid plant Lotte Chemical forms clean ammonia consultative body with RWE and Mitsubishi Corporation Global 2020-2021 specialty fertilizer demand growth led by north America, Asia BASF and Cargill extend enzymes business and distribution to US Saudi Aramco awards sulphur facilities overhaul contract to Technip India sets green hydrogen targets for shipping, oil & gas, fertilizer sectors Germany misses climate target despite lower energy consumption TFI reacts to US Congress passing the Water Resources Development ActHelm becomes a shareholder in UK bio-fertilizer company Unium Bioscience Yara inks deal to deliver fossil-free green fertilizers to Argentina Canadian firms plan fuel cell generator pilot using green ammonia Deepak Fertilizers awards contract to reduce emissions, increase productivity Saudi Aramco launches $1.5bn sustainability fund to support net zero ambition CF Industries and ExxonMobil plan CCS project in Louisiana Canada’s plan to cut fertilizer emissions is voluntary – minister Canada’s fertilizer emission goal raises food production concerns Uniper, Vesta to cooperate on renewable ammonia site in the Netherlands German Uniper to work with Japan’s JERA on US clean ammonia projects ADNOC ships first cargo of low-carbon ammonia to Germany US Mosaic and BioConsortia expand collaboration to microbial biostimulant IMO deems Mediterranean Sea area for sulphur oxides emissions control Canada's Soilgenic launches new enhanced efficiency fertilizers technology for retail Austria's Borealis aims to produce 1.8m tonnes/year of circular products by 2030 European Parliament rejects proposed carbon market reform IFA ’22: southern Africa looks to bio-fertilizer as cheaper, sustainable option IFA '22: Indian farmers will struggle to embrace specialty fertilizers – producer Canadian Nutrien plans to build world’s largest clean ammonia facility in Louisiana Japan's JGC Holdings awards green ammonia plant contract to KBR Bayer to partner with Ginkgo to produce sustainable fertilizers Australia Orica and H2U Group partner on Gladstone green ammonia project Canada sets tax credit of up to 60% for carbon capture projects UK delays urea restrictions to support farmers as fertilizer costs at record high EU states agree to back carbon border tax Yara to develop novel green fertilizer from recycled nutrients USDA announces plans for $250m grant programme to support American-made fertilizer Canada seeks guidance to achieve fertilizer emissions target Fertilizer titan Pupuk Indonesia develops hydrogen/blue ammonia business India launches green hydrogen/ammonia policy, targets exports Canada AmmPower to develop green hydrogen and ammonia facility in Louisiana US DOE awards grant to project to recover rare earth elements from phosphate production Fertiglobe, Masdar, Engie to develop green hydrogen for ammonia production Czech Republic’s Spolana enhances granular AS production India’s Reliance to invest $80bn in green energy projects Yara, Sweden’s Lantmannen aim to commercialise green ammonia by 2023 Novatek and Uniper target Russia to Germany blue-ammonia supply chain Fertz giant Yara goes green with electrification of Norwegian factoryCanada Arianne Phosphate exploring use of phosphate for hydrogen technology FAO and IFA renew MoU to promote sustainable fertilizer use Sumitomo Chemical, Yara to explore clean ammonia collaboration Sri Lanka revokes ban on imports Tokyo scientists convert bioplastic into nitrogen fertilizer Aramco plans Saudi green hydrogen, ammonia project China announces action plan for carbon peaking & neutrality Saudi Aramco targets net zero emissions from operations by 2050 Fertiglobe goes green with Red Sea zero-carbon ammonia pro Australian fertilizer major Incitec Pivot teams up for green ammonia study INTERVIEW: BASF to scale up new decarbonisation tech in second half of decade – CEO India asks fertilizer companies to speed up production of nano DAP Japan's Itochu set to receive first cargo of blue ammonia for fertilizer use Norway's Yara acquires recycled fertilizers maker Ecolan Bayer Funds US start-up aims to cut nitrogen fertilizer use by 30% BP: Green ammonia production in Australia feasible, but needs huge investment Origin and MOL explore shipping green ammonia from Australia India’s IFFCO seeks to export nano urea fertilizer Sri Lanka reinstates ban on import of chemical fertilizers Nutrien to cut greenhouse gas emissions 30% by 2030 RESOURCES IFA – Fertilizers and climate change  TFI – Sustainability report 

02-Oct-2023

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s economy started 2023 on the backfoot and GDP growth expectations at barely 1%, but nine months later most economists and analysts now expect growth to be around three times higher. Even the beleaguered industrial sectors, which were lagging agriculture and services, are posting a “moderate reacceleration”, the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) has said, according to the minutes of its last monetary policy committee (Copom) meeting. The optimistic players within the chemicals industry, a sector hardly hit by the wider manufacturing malaise in the first half of 2023, might even be able to see some green shoots: chemicals producer prices rose 1% in August, the first increase after 18 months of consecutive falls. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SURPRISE Upgrades to GDP forecasts by Brazilian institutions come after those issued by international bodies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or private financial institutions such US credit rating agencies Fitch and S&P. For much of 2023, the BCB’s tone tilted towards pessimism, and until August it kept interest rates at 13.75%, despite inflation falling for much of the year. Both the newly sworn in Brazilian government and manufacturing companies blamed high interest rates for part of the manufacturing malaise, as it kept consumers away from big-ticket purchases. The central bank’s assessments of the economy tended to put more weight on the downside factors. With the economy about to enter Q4 on a strong footing, the BCB’s tone changed this month, saying Copom members had “held a wide-ranging debate” on the reasons for the “magnitude of the surprise” regarding stronger growth in 2023. The debate occurred on 19-20 September, when the Copom decided to lower rates for the second time in three months by another half percentage point, with the Selic benchmark now at 12.75%. The minutes of that meeting were published this week. The bumper harvest this year greatly contributed to healthy growth in the first quarter and, somehow, put the wheels on other sectors, which started reviving from the second quarter onward. Brazil's fertilizers- and export-intensive agricultural sector accounts for around 25% of the country's output. “Although corroborated by data, it [strong agriculture season] does not justify the entire magnitude of the surprise. Another possibility is that the expansion of disposable income, as the result of the labour market dynamics, decline of food prices, or income transfer programs, has also provided some support to consumption,” the committee said. “Copom focused on this issue, deemed of high relevance, and stressed that the assumption of a growth sustained by the increase of income is corroborated by the resilience in the consumption of services rendered to households.” The committee added indicators were suggesting a “scenario of stronger resilience” of the economy. “Generally speaking, in the sectoral indicators, there is some deceleration in the trade sector, moderate reacceleration in industry, and stability in the services sector growth, after a stronger growth pace in previous quarters,” the Copom added. The bank also said Copom had discussed whether some reforms passed by congress – where the government, which does not command a majority, must permanently agree measures with other parties – had contributed to healthier growth. Certain mistrust about the left-leaning cabinet under Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, which took office in January, must have also been the reason for the more than 100 economists surveyed weekly by the BCB to lag in their growth expectations. They, too, were expecting worse growth figures and higher inflation for much of 2023 than the actual figures came to show. Now, they are forecasting GDP to grow by 2.92% in 2023, according to this week’s survey, the so-called Relatorio de Mercado. Only a month ago, the survey showed average growth expectations at 2.31%. For 2024, economists expect growth at 1.50%; other forecasts, however, stand at around 2.0%. A MORE DIFFICULT COUNTRY TO GOVERNWhile the BCB praised the government’s ability to reach out in parliament to pass reforms – a move which no doubt has dispelled fears among bussineses of a hard-left administration under the so-called ‘Lula 3’ term – other observers see in that a sign of the polarised and unstable political times we are living in. Mansueto Almeida, chief economist at Brazil’s investment bank BTG Pactual, said this week that the Brazilian multiparty system, which has made Congress a true counterpower to the executive, has also meant some reforms are harder to pass. The country has for much of 2023 been talking about a tax reform which would simplify the multiple taxes consumers and companies must pay. There has been some progress on the negotiations, but success is not guaranteed. “We have been 40 years talking about a tax reform. Equally, we spent 20 years debating the pensions reform, which ultimately was passed. The tax reform is important for the economy and the lack of clarity does not help,” Almeida said. “This takes me to a wider reflection about strong governments just 20 years ago and today. In his first election victory, Lula won in 26 of Brazil’s 27 states. Last year, he won in 13 out of 27. We have a more divided and independent Congress, which can be good as counterweight to the cabinet but also means reforms, especially economic reforms, are harder to achieve.” To add to the GDP growth upgrades race, Almeida said BTG Pactual is forecasting a rise in output of 3% in 2023, and of 2% for 2024. “Consumers and companies are gaining confidence and should enter into 2024 with a much more positive sentiment,” he concluded. Almeida was speaking at an event about the Brazilian economy organised by credit rating agnecy Fitch in Sao Paulo this week. Focus article by Jonathan Lopez

29-Sep-2023

Updated at 11:00 GMT on 29 September 2023. Please scroll down to see headlines. The war in Ukraine has caused oil and especially gas price volatility, as restricted flows from Russia to Ukraine caused values to spike to record-breaking levels before collapsing to pre-war levels. Since December 2022, unseasonably mild winter weather hit demand, reversing gas prices. However millions of tonnes of chemical and fertilizer production remain offline across Europe thanks to the elevated gas prices and poor macro-economic conditions which have impacted demand. Europe’s energy challenge is immense and put into stark relief by the response to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Cutting the ties that bind EU and non-EU nations to Russian gas and oil will be extremely painful this year and in years to come. This topic page examines the impact of the Ukraine conflict on oil, gas, fertilizer and chemical markets. Image credit Vadim Ghirda/AP/Shutterstock Europe’s energy markets witnessed a year of record prices and extreme volatility in 2021. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to more difficult conditions for global markets since then. GAS SUMMARY Gas storage remains robust in Europe, winter demand fell thanks to mild weather Poor downstream demand still affecting industrial production, gas demand Record shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe so far in 2022/23 LNG plus Norwegian, Algerian, Azerbaijani pipeline imports compensate for Russian supply shortfall Europe LNG processing operating at full capacity Nord Stream I and II pipelines damaged by explosions, zero flows to Europe EU implements voluntary 15% cut to consumption AMMONIA SUMMARY Russia supplies 20% of global seaborne ammonia market Disrupted supply has pushed up fertilizer and food prices OIL SUMMARY Friendship oil pipeline flows through Ukraine Russian oil feeds around a quarter of Europe demand Europe seeks to end reliance on Russian crude oil EU agrees ban on seaborne imports from 5 December 2022, petroleum products from 5 February 2023 From 5 December Russian crude oil cargoes will only be insured if subject to price cap CHEMICALS SUMMARY Millions of tonnes of capacity remain offline despite gas cost collapse Elevated oil, gas prices dent consumer confidence and demand Prospect of recession, more cheap imports from Asia Margins, prices under pressure due to collapsed downstream demand Sanctions and measures against Russian exports of oil and gas have sent shockwaves across the global economy, lifting the cost of living, impacting industrial and agricultural production and potentially leading to social unrest. How vulnerable are energy and energy-related Russian supplies to disruptions? Europe has historically depended for close to 40% of its annual gas consumption on Russian supplies, imported via four routes – Ukraine, Belarus-Poland as well as the Nord Stream 1 and TurkStream corridors linking Russia to Germany and Turkey via the Baltic and Black Sea, respectively. Overall Russian pipeline supplies were limited throughout 2021 and further reduced in 2022. By the end of last year Russian pipeline supplies fell to less than 10% of Europe's total gas imports compared to 40% in the previous year. Russian volumes shipped through Ukraine to Europe are now at third of what they should be as part of a five-year transit agreement Russia has banned exports of gas to several EU countries, and the Nord Stream I and II pipelines have been damaged. In 2022 flows via Yamal and Nord Stream 1 stopped completely. European petrochemicals players faced even higher gas prices as a result, though these have since collapsed to pre-war levels. Fertilizer companies – where gas can account for 80% of costs – have been forced to curtail production. Chemicals were affected, especially those with high exposure to gas prices through utilities or feedstocks. If the conflict escalates, Ukraine transit pipelines may come under attack but disruptions could be limited because the infrastructure has been built to grant flexibility, allowing the operator to reroute flows away from potentially damaged segments. AMMONIA IMPACT The Togliatti-Azot pipeline, the world’s longest ammonia pipeline stretching 2,471km from the Togliatti Azot plant in Russian Samara Oblast to the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Yuzhny, could be caught up in the cross-fire. Russian ammonia supplies account for around 20% of the global seaborne merchant ammonia market each month. Around two thirds of those volumes are exported via Yuzhny, with the rest reaching European and global markets via Baltic ports. Ammonia is a prime material for fertilizers, so curtailments could potentially lead to higher food prices and shortages. Ammonia market players are scrambling to cover positions and assess options as the Russian invasion of Ukraine saw loadings at the key export hub of Yuzhny halted with immediate effect. Russian nitrogen fertilizer major Togliatti confirmed the suspension of the transit of ammonia to the Black Sea port via pipeline to ensure the safety of people living in the vicinity of the lengthy conduit. OIL PIPELINES VULNERABLE Supplies on the world’s longest oil pipeline, the Friendship (Druzhba) pipeline, could be threatened if the conflict leads to tough sanctions. The pipeline carries oil from central Russia 4,000km west to Ukraine and Belarus and runs close to the Belarus-Ukraine border. Russia exports around 5m bbl/day, of which half are exported to Europe, including via this pipeline. Russian oil accounts for about a quarter of Europe’s consumption, with the Druzhba pipeline carrying close to 1m bbl/day. Sanctions have been imposed on imports of Russian crude oil and products by sea, but the ban does not include pipeline oil. Europe consumed most exports of Urals, Russia’s biggest export grade, in 2021 after Saudi Arabia boosted market share in China. Almost 10m tonnes of Urals went through Rotterdam in the first half of last year, up 2m tonnes on 2020. Germany stands most exposed because it gets 25% of its oil from Russia. SInce the ban came into place, Russia has successfully switched exports mainly to China and India, though priced at a steep doscount. CHEMICALS IMPACT Gas and electricity are important components in the production costs of many chemicals. Surging gas and feedstock prices in Europe have caused big hikes in contract and spot prices. Now millions of tonnes of fertilizer and chemical capacity are offline in Europe. ICIS has also created an interactive timeline which shows the history of the gas impact since July 2021. These products have been most badly affected by outages in Europe, with more than half of capacity offline or running at reduced rates in some cases. Analysis by the ICIS Margin Analytics team shows the products which are most exposed to energy and gas prices in Europe as a feedstock or utility. Europe is at a competitive disadvantage to other regions and some customers are seeking new sources of lower-priced supply, especially from Asia and the Middle East. Collapsed demand means that millions of tonnes of European chemicals capacity remains offline despite much lower gas costs. The conflict in Ukraine has pushed European gas prices back up to record levels, forcing exposed chemical producers to cease production, or add further energy surcharges. Rising oil prices since late 2021 have already put chemical margins under pressure, and volatility has continued into 2022. As oil and naphtha prices soared, margins for ethylene production based on naphtha went negative for the first time ICIS record began. The are now are swinging wildy in tandem with oil price movements. Chemical producers are struggling to pass on increasing feedstock and energy costs in Europe. Elevated oil and gas prices also dent downstream consumer confidence and spending, with recession a possibility later in 2022 or 2023. What contingency plans are being put in place? Europe prepared for a difficult winter although rising storage fullness levels, falling demand and more import capacity for liquefied natural gas (LNG) have helped it get by, assuming there will not be an extensive cold spell. As of 6 March, storage facilities across Europe were 54% full compared with just 20% last March. Some 30bn cubic meters of new capacity were added between September 2022 and March 2023. The capacity includes offshore terminals in the Netherlands, Germany and Estonia/Finland. Demand has been decreasing by more than 20% in the industrial sector in north-west European countries and by 20-30% for households in Germany, according to official data. Nevertheless, there is a possibility that Russia may completely stop its gas supplies to Europe via the last two remaining routes – Ukraine and Turkey, which could lop off some 70 cubic meters of Russian gas entering Europe daily. In such a scenario, the most affected countries would be those in eastern and central Europe, which are landlocked and have been struggling to secure regasified LNG from importing countries. For oil markets, in case of an attack but no international sanctions, the worst-case scenario would be for approximately 240,000 bbl/day of lost Russian exports via Ukraine. There are other seaborne routes, including the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Gas rationing – impact on Europe petrochemicals, fertilizers Embattled European fertilizer and petrochemical producers may be the first in line to cut gas consumption if the region experiences a cold snap in the weather. Russia, Europe’s largest gas supplier, has been limiting exports to less than a quarter of its deliveries two years ago and may stop them altogether amid its political stand-off with the EU. Policymakers recommend voluntary reductions but say these would become mandatory in case of a supply emergency jeopardising the bloc’s security. DEMAND REDUCTION The EU’s largest consumers include households, accounting for 37% of total demand, electricity and heat generation covering around 30% and industrial consumption accounting for another 30%. Record high gas prices and an ongoing gas supply crunch over the least year had forced consumers to limit or stop production or seek import substitution globally. The mild winter has alleviated this situation. FERTILIZERS The fertilizer sector, one of the most gas-intensive industries, has also been one of the most affected so far as gas can account for up to 80% of production costs. Production has been cut back drastically because it is no longer economic. PETROCHEMICALS On the petrochemicals side, there are now deep production cuts for products such as methyl methacrylate (MMA) and melamine which are heavily exposed to natural gas for utilities or as a feedstock. Producers are making detailed plans for rationing, particularly in Germany, where the chemicals and pharmaceuticals industry uses about 140 TWh per year, or about 15 percent of Germany's gas consumption. Gas is mainly used by petrochemicals to generate energy such as electricity and steam as well as to fire furnaces for production complexes such as crackers. Sites are able to lower operating rates significantly, but they may be forced to close if gas supplies drop so much that production becomes uneconomic or difficult from a technical perspective. Companies with flexibility are switching from natural gas to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) or other sources of energy. Ukraine conflict threatens Europe oil supply, chemicals production With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, sanctions could cut supplies of crude oil through the Druzhba pipeline, threatening oil refinery operations and chemicals production at installations in Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Poland and the former East Germany. Russian oil supplies up to a quarter of Europe’s crude imports, with refineries in central and eastern Europe, which are attached to the Druzhba pipeline, particularly reliant on these supplies. Any interruption to these supplies could force refineries to reduce operating rates unless they can find alternative supplies. Analysis of the ICIS Supply & Demand database shows that the countries Druzhba runs through, except for Germany, are reliant on Russian crude oil for more than half of their imports, led by Slovakia which obtained 96% of its supplies from Russia in 2021. Chemical production downstream of refineries in these countries could be impacted by any reduction in operating rates. The ICIS data forecast that for 2022, 2.79m tonnes of ethylene (11% of total European capacity) and 2.34m tonnes of propylene (12% of total European capacity) are reliant on refineries located along the Druzhba pipeline. While some alternative sources of crude oil could be sourced, it is unlikely normal levels of operations could be maintained. Michael Connolly, ICIS Principal Analyst Refining said: “Although many have built alternate sources, keeping full operating rates would be difficult for them as they rely on a consistent and reliable source of crude. Most refiners in Europe are aware of the risk of Russian crude and over the past 5-10 years have tried to reduce their dependence, or at least to build some capability to have an alternate supply – it doesn't mean they would be unaffected, but there should be a little bit of resilience, depending on the site.” Connolly explained that some land-locked refineries along the Druzhba pipeline have built pipelines to the coast, allowing alternative sources of crude oil to be sourced. However, these pipelines may not have capacity to feed the whole refinery. A spokesperson for Grupa LOTOS said: "The LOTOS refinery has dealt with suspended supplies by land before. Due to the contamination of Russian oil with chlorines, PERN, the state-owned operator of transmission and storage infrastructure, had to completely discontinue the transmission of crude oil from the eastern direction between 24 April and 9 June 2019." He added that scheduling of oil supplies by sea helped to secure volumes sufficient to maintain an unchanged level of throughput and maximise fuel production. UKRAINE CHEMICALS UNDER THREAT With Russian forces present in Ukraine, chemical and fertilizer facilities may be threatened by physical damage, interrupted power and gas supplies or logistics disruption. Kalush cracker closed Karpatnaftohkhim's cracker at Kalush has been closed down because of the imposition of martial law in Ukraine. It has capacity (tonnes/year) of 250,000 (ethylene); 117,000 (propylene) 110,000 (LLDPE), 300,000 (PVC), 100,000 (benzene). Black Sea export hub closed  Ammonia market players have scrambled to cover positions and assess options as the Russian invasion of Ukraine saw loadings at the key export hub of Yuzhny halted with immediate effect. Russian nitrogen fertilizer major Togliatti confirmed the suspension of the transit of ammonia to the Black Sea port via pipeline to ensure the safety of people living in the vicinity of the lengthy conduit. The Samara Oblast-based giant also confirmed the shut down of four of its seven ammonia units, with the other three plants operating at reduced rates. Russia export disruptions to shift global trade flows, future capacities threatened Disruptions to Russia’s chemicals and polymers exports will change trade flows, particularly to Europe and Asia, as international sanctions, lack of logistics and even “self-sanctions” limit volumes. While Russia’s capacities are relatively small on a global scale, they can still have a significant impact on regional markets if these exports are disrupted. Key Russia exports include methanol, polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), styrene and paraxylene (PX). Russia has increased exports of high density polyethylene (HDPE) and polypropylene (PP) in particular in 2020 and 2021 as new capacity started up from SIBUR’s ZapSibNeftekhim complex in Tobolsk in 2020. LATEST HEADLINES UK power winter supply margins adequate – system operator By Calum Andrews 28-Sep-23 23:04 LONDON (ICIS)–The UK should be able to maintain adequate supply margins through Winter 2023, according to an outlook released by grid operator National Grid on 28 September. EPCA ’23: Europe petchem markets in trough, no upturn expected for 2024 By Katherine Sale 27-Sep-23 21:17 VIENNA (ICIS)–The European petrochemical markets are in a trough, with no demand upturn expected for 2024. High stocks, low demand to shield Europe’s winter gas supply margins By Rob Dalton 27-Sep-23 20:12 LONDON (ICIS)–After weathering the global energy crisis last year, the European gas markets’ outlook for winter 2023-2024 has significantly improved amid high gas storage levels and subdued demand. EPCA '23 INSIGHT: Europe petrochemicals face another tough year By Will Beacham 25-Sep-23 16:41 BARCELONA (ICIS)–Europe’s beleaguered petrochemical sector continues to be battered by persistent low demand, global overcapacity and cheap imports from China which are all contributing to poor margins. Germany producer prices fall by a record 12.6% By Stefan Baumgarten 21-Sep-23 02:58 LONDON (ICIS)–Producer prices in Germany fell 12.6% year on year in August, marking the biggest year-on-year decline since 1949, when collection of the data began. UK inflation edges down in August despite higher fuel prices By Morgan Condon 20-Sep-23 20:30 LONDON (ICIS)–UK annual inflation slowed for the third consecutive month in August, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) was recorded at 6.7%, down from 6.8% in July, driven by softening inflation for food prices. Further contraction was offset by rising prices for motor fuels. Oil prices hit highest since Nov ‘22 on China recovery hopesBy Nurluqman Suratman 15-Sep-23 12:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Upbeat August data on China’s industrial production and consumer spending accompanied by cuts in banks’ reserve requirement on Friday sent crude prices soaring to their highest level since November 2022. INSIGHT: Lummus, Clariant enhance PDH tech amid tougher propylene market By Al Greenwood14-Sep-23 23:15 HOUSTON (ICIS)–The enhancements that Lummus Technology and catalyst producer Clariant have made to the CATOFIN propane dehydrogenation (PDH) technology will compete not just with the market leading Oleflex tech from Honeywell UOP, but with new entrants from Dow and KBR as well as renewable processes that have become more popular as companies strive to become more sustainable. INSIGHT: ICIS Leading Business Barometer gauges pressured global economy By Nigel Davis 14-Sep-23 18:47 LONDON (ICIS)–The health of the chemical industry can be used as a bellwether for the that of the wider economy, tied as it is so closely to upstream energy and vitally important downstream industries and sectors, principally autos, construction and electronics. PODCAST: Global oil Q4 tight supply could intensify on three factors By Eloise Radley 14-Sep-23 16:03 LONDON (ICIS)–Crude prices rose above $90/bbl for the first time in 2023, in the week ending 8 September. Europe, US economies to grow in 2024, China slowdown to persist for years: economist By Will Beacham 12-Sep-23 23:41 SITGES, SPAIN (ICIS)–Europe and the US economies should grow next year while China will be trapped in a prolonged multi-year slowdown, according to Koes De Leus, chief economist of BNP Paribas Fortis. INSIGHT: Saudi, Russia crude cuts firm prices but macro bearishness casts a shadow By Tom Brown 11-Sep-23 23:45 LONDON (ICIS)–News last week that Saudi Arabia and Russia are to extend voluntary crude oil output cuts through to the rest of the year has driven prices to the highest levels of the year, but economic weakness and stronger flows from elsewhere may cap gains. Singapore factory activity improves in Aug but major external headwinds remain By Nurluqman Suratman 06-Sep-23 13:58 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The country's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose marginally to 49.9 in August from 49.8 in July, marking the third consecutive month of improvement, according to data from the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management. INSIGHT: Styrene capacity build up shifts global cost curve and threatens structural change By Moritz Lank 05-Sep-23 23:40 LONDON (ICIS)–High cost styrene production units are challenged in a difficult, slow-growing demand environment and one in which global capacity is building fast. INSIGHT: Trinseo seeks breathing room amid fiercely challenging market, financing conditions By Joseph Chang 07-Sep-23 03:55 NEW YORK (ICIS)–It has been a tough stretch for Trinseo as the polymers and latex binders producer seeks to refinance debt coming due next year amid fiercely challenging market and credit conditions, especially in Europe where it still operates a good chunk of assets even after shutdowns. European caustic soda quiet during August lull, spot prices under further pressure By Chris Barker 29-Aug-23 22:48 LONDON (ICIS)–European caustic soda players cut back activity in August, adding to the market's already weak outlook. Asia fatty alcohols mid-cuts C12-14 weakens on feedstock PKO decline By Helen Yan 30-Aug-23 12:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Despite ongoing and upcoming plant turnarounds, spot prices of mid-cuts C12-14 are facing downward pressure from the decline in the feedstock palm kernel oil (PKO) prices and stagnant demand. Europe MA offers undercut Asian offers, some restocking may be seen By Anne-Sophie Briant-Vaghela 29-Aug-23 22:05 LONDON (ICIS)–European maleic anhydride (MA) prices could be near a bottom, although it remains to be seen how long the uptick or a halt in the downtrend will last given unanimous expectations that underlying demand will be stagnant for the rest of the year. Europe jet fuel price rally stalls following upstream volatility, fading gasoil strength By Shruti Salwan 25-Aug-23 17:17 LONDON (ICIS)–Consumption for aviation and road fuels has started to soften as the wind-down of the summer travel season begins, with lower gasoil and jet fuel spending exerting downward pressure on prices. CDI Economic Summary: US mild recession expected in H1 2024 By Kevin Swift 25-Aug-23 03:30 CHARLOTTE, North Carolina (ICIS)–The US economy could enter a mild recession in H1 2024 as the lag effects from the Federal Reserve’s heavy dose of rate hikes finally kick in. The Fed has also signaled the potential for further hikes as core inflation remains sticky. Gas sell-off to trigger German peak spark spread upside By Daniel Muir 24-Aug-23 22:48 LONDON (ICIS)–The sell off of benchmark natural gas contracts after Australian LNG strike risks eased should see clean peak spark spreads for German front-year delivery rebound in coming sessions, traders told ICIS. Front-month clean dark and clean spark spreads tighten By Anna Coulson 24-Aug-23 00:32 LONDON (ICIS)–Rising fuel costs saw German rolling front-month Clean Dark and Clean Spark Spreads improve slightly over the last seven days, but a weaker fuel mix saw coal and gas front-year profitability decrease. Thailand 2023 growth forecast cut to 2.5-3.0% after H1 slowdown By Nurluqman Suratman 21-Aug-23 15:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand on Monday cut its full-year growth forecast to 2.5-3.0% after the economy slowed in the first half of the year due to the weakness in global demand which has weighed on exports and manufacturing. INSIGHT: Shrinking China trade signals trouble for chemicals everywhereBy Will Beacham 10-Aug-23 19:26 BARCELONA (ICIS)–Double-digit declines in China’s latest import and export figures, together with shrinking domestic manufacturing data, confirm a persistent collapse in demand for chemicals around the world. Thailand’s PTTGC swings to Q2 net loss on crude-led slump in product prices By Pearl Bantillo 10-Aug-23 15:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thai producer PTT Global Chemical swung into a net loss of baht (BT) 5.6bn ($159m) in the second quarter of 2023 as product prices tracked the slump in upstream crude prices amid global recession and petrochemical overcapacity concerns. Saudi raises most Sept crude prices for Asia; hikes all Europe prices By James Dennis 08-Aug-23 10:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi Arabia issued its September Official Selling Prices (OSP), with price rises for most grades for customers in Asia and more marked increases for customers in northwest Europe and the Mediterranean, while there were no increases for US buyers. Saudi Aramco Q2 net profit falls 37.9% on lower oil prices, poor chemical margins By Nurluqman Suratman 07-Aug-23 15:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Aramco's net profit fell by 37.9% year on year in the second quarter on the back of lower crude oil prices and weakening refining and chemicals margins, the Saudi energy giant said on Monday. Singapore manufacturing shows signs of recovery; external headwinds persistBy Nurluqman Suratman 03-Aug-23 12:55 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery in July as new orders improved, but export headwinds are expected to persist as economic conditions at major trading partners remain poor. OUTLOOK: US BD, SBR likely to remain oversupplied amid weak demandBy Amanda Hay 03-Aug-23 03:03 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US butadiene (BD) and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) are expected to remain oversupplied through the second half of 2023 because of weak demand for tyres. Austrian gas storage withdrawals could buck 2022 trend in Q4 ‘23By Irina Breilean 02-Aug-23 22:54 LONDON (ICIS)–Austrian VTP price dynamics suggest storage withdrawals will likely concentrate during the first quarter of 2024, with VTP Q1 ’24 prices trading at a premium over Q4 ’23, October ’23 and November ’23. INSIGHT: BASF grapples with demand trough, slow road backBy Tom Brown 02-Aug-23 21:12 LONDON (ICIS)–BASF and the wider chemicals sector is dealing with an environment more singular even than the conditions seen in the pandemic and 2008 financial crash according to BASF chief Martin Brudermuller, with little sign of a V-shaped recovery from the current demand trough. INSIGHT: Commercial start-up of Vietnam petrochemical complex delayed amid weak global demand By Pearl Bantillo 02-Aug-23 18:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand’s Siam Cement Group (SCG) expects mechanical completion and commissioning of Vietnam’s first cracker in August to September, pushing back the full commercial start-up of the Long Son Petrochemical project to the second half of the year amid oversupply concerns in Asia. China rolls out fresh stimulus to boost growth as July manufacturing contracts By Fanny Zhang 31-Jul-23 16:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China has announced new measures to revive its fragile economy that has been losing steam since the second quarter, with the focus on boosting consumption. INFOGRAPHIC: Europe PET in survival mode despite peak summer season By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 24-Jul-23 19:01 LONDON (ICIS)–Post-COVID life, coupled with the Russia-Ukraine war and the volatile macroeconomics it has unleashed, are upending consumers’ habits. Restaurants are full, tourism is booming, yet people are saving on supermarket purchases, which is severely hurting demand f or polyethylene terephthalate (PET). IMF ups 2023 global GDP forecast, slowed growth expectations remain By Tom Brown 25-Jul-23 21:00 LONDON (ICIS)–The IMF on Tuesday modestly increased its global GDP growth estimates for 2023 while maintaining expectations that the recovery over the next 18 months will continue substantially slower than in 2022 as post-COVID headwinds and the Russia-Ukraine war weigh on the economy. OUTLOOK: Europe polyols demand forecast uncertain for H2 By Zubair Adam 26-Jul-23 17:00 LONDON (ICIS)–Polyols consumption in Europe was mainly limited in H1 2023, and there is no major recovery expected in H2. OUTLOOK: Short-term European SBR demand expectations bearish By Melissa Hurley 27-Jul-23 17:00 LONDON (ICIS)–European styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand has weakened in 2023 and the situation is expected to continue in the third quarter. INSIGHT: Resurgence of Iran gas price debate as politicians seek a rollback to formula By Keven Zhang 28-Jul-23 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In mid-July, an official announcement from the Iranian government stated that the natural gas price for petrochemical producers was Iranian rials (Rls)70,000/cubic metre, up from Rls50,000/cubic metre. OUTLOOK: Europe PX braces for a gloomy H2 amid recessionary fears By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 21-Jul-23 17:00 LONDON (ICIS)–The Europe paraxylene (PX) market is getting ready to navigate a second half of the year marked by disappointing downstream demand, as the challenging macroeconomic scenario keeps denting orders from customers. French nukes to drive German gas-to-power demand in August By Eduardo Escajadillo 20-Jul-23 23:07 LONDON (ICIS)–German gas-fired generation could potentially gain momentum in August to compensate in the event of lower French nuclear power output amid warmer temperatures forecast in northwest Europe. Ukraine needs more realistic energy targets to attract investors, MP By Aura Sabadus 20-Jul-23 17:42 LONDON (ICIS)–Ukraine must guarantee a stable regulatory environment and competitive market conditions if it is determined to attract investments to rebuild its war-ravaged energy sector, Andrii Zuphanyn, the chair of the gas subcommittee in the Ukrainian parliament told ICIS. Profit warnings may drive sell-side M&A – bankers By Joseph Chang 20-Jul-23 04:55 NEW YORK (ICIS)–A very active earnings warning season for the chemical industry portending difficult conditions throughout 2023 could lead to more M&A activity, particularly on the sell side. Robust domestic demand to drive Asia ‘23 growth amid weak exports By Nurluqman Suratman 19-Jul-23 14:31 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday maintained its growth outlook for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific at 4.8% this year as robust domestic demand continues to support the region’s recovery. INSIGHT: Pakistan gets much-needed reprieve; polymer imports to improve By Pearl Bantillo 14-Jul-23 17:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Billions of US dollars have started flowing into Pakistan after getting the much-awaited IMF stamp of approval that the south Asian nation will set its house in order, averting an impending sovereign debt default. INSIGHT: Chems warn of weak consumer goods, China as earnings season starts By Al Greenwood 13-Jul-23 21:41 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Chemical companies have flagged weakness in consumer goods and China in a wave of profit warnings issued before the start of earnings season. PODCAST: Falling chemical prices signal switch from inflation to deflation By Will Beacham 12-Jul-23 20:07 BARCELONA (ICIS)–Falling chemical prices could be a leading indicator of a switch from inflation to deflation in the broader economy. OUTLOOK: No respite from economic pressures and weak demand for Europe plasticizers market By Nicole Simpson 12-Jul-23 17:21 LONDON (ICIS)–Weak demand, strong competition between sellers and economic woe are expected to continue defining the European plasticizers spot market through the second half of 2023. OUTLOOK: As busy ‘warnings season’ nears end, a new reality sets in for H2 2023 By Joseph Chang 12-Jul-23 05:37 NEW YORK (ICIS)–A very active earnings warnings season for the chemical industry is just about over, resulting in a big reset downwards in earnings expectations for Q2 and the rest of the year. With a new reality setting in, the industry is bracing for earnings and new guidance that is likely to be far less optimistic than at the start of the year. OUTLOOK: Asia methanol to grapple with more supply; feedstock swings to direct market By Keven Zhang 11-Jul-23 11:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s methanol market is expected to grapple with increased global supply in the second half of 2023 as new capacities are slated to come on stream in China, Middle East and north America. Europe suffers further operating rate cuts as demand malaise, overcapacity bite By Will Beacham 07-Jul-23 16:49 BARCELONA (ICIS)–Collapsing demand and competition from other regions have led to further deterioration in operating rates for Europe’s petrochemical sector, new data from ICIS shows. South Korea removes tariffs on naphtha, crude imports until yearend By Nurluqman Suratman 07-Jul-23 15:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea has removed tariffs imposed on naphtha and crude oil imports, to reduce cost burden for the domestic petrochemical industry and tame high inflation. Ukraine can scale up wind output despite war, market challenges By Aura Sabadus 06-Jul-23 20:01 LONDON (ICIS)–Ukraine could bring online as much as 55GW of wind capacity by 2050 despite major challenges related to the Russian invasion and issues linked to market design. Weak economic activity pressuring European oil demand, refining margins By Cecilia Barreiro 06-Jul-23 00:07 LONDON (ICIS)–It has been difficult for oil prices to push above the $80/bbl threshold as economic anxiety weighs on the market. Weak industrial and manufacturing demand in the US, EU and China has driven bearish market sentiment despite recent announcements from Saudi Arabia, Russia and Algeria of further supply cuts. Eurozone manufacturing slips to mid-2020 levels as demand slows, rate hikes bite By Tom Brown 03-Jul-23 19:00 LONDON (ICIS)–Eurozone manufacturing sector activity slowed in June to the weakest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic as demand continued to fall, confidence sank and producers started to feel the impact of the central bank's interest rate hikes. INSIGHT: China MTBE pushed into overseas markets due to limited domestic demand By Aviva Zhang 30-Jun-23 12:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Chinese methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) producers have been pushing into overseas markets since 2022 due to limited domestic consumption potential. Production capacity is in surplus and gasoline demand has plateaued. Brazil’s chemicals May producer prices fall sharply on lower naphtha values, stronger real By Jonathan Lopez 30-Jun-23 02:26 SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s chemicals producer prices fell by nearly 6% in May, month on month, on the back of lower global naphtha values and a stronger currency bringing down prices in reais, the country’s statistics office IGBE said on Thursday. INSIGHT: Worries over weak Asia PA6 and domestic China market remain By Josh Quah 28-Jun-23 20:25 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia polyamide 6 (PA6) markets are ending the quarter with much of the concerns that have been prevalent since the start of it – against a backdrop of weak demand in most regions and already below-threshold margin levels under pressure of falling further. OX imports into Europe up by nearly 10% in Q1 By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 27-Jun-23 19:55 LONDON (ICIS)–Imports of orthoxylene (OX) into the EU and the United Kingdom went up by 9.9% in Q1 year on year, according to the latest data from the ICIS Supply and Demand database. European heatwave could dampen German power imports through July By Calum Andrews 23-Jun-23 01:05 LONDON (ICIS)–Germany is likely to maintain a net import position through July, market sources have suggested to ICIS, however the extent will largely hinge on European temperatures. INSIGHT: Embedding inflation further weakens 2023 industrial demand for chemicals By Nigel Davis 22-Jun-23 20:12 LONDON (ICIS)–Chemical producers in Europe are in an especially difficult position but operators worldwide have had to face up to the fact that demand recovery in 2023 appears increasingly distant. INSIGHT: LANXESS CEO ‘Lehman 2’ warning highlights extreme and broadening demand weakness By Joseph Chang 21-Jun-23 05:29 NEW YORK (ICIS)–A huge earnings warning by Germany-based specialty chemicals company LANXESS highlights the extreme and extended weakness in European and global construction and electronics markets, along with surprising declines in “usually stable” consumer applications. Asia polyolefins overcapacity to worsen amid eurozone recession By Nurluqman Suratman 20-Jun-23 14:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s polyolefins market is bracing for a supply overhang as heavy capacity additions coincide with a significant weakening of demand from the recession-laden eurozone, and amid the slowing Chinese economy. Global weekly spot IPEX down again on declines across regions By Yashas Mudumbai 19-Jun-23 18:58 LONDON (ICIS)–The global spot ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) went down by 1.7% week on week on the back of price declines across all regions. Ample UK gas supply to boost exports over winter 2023 By Hector Falconer 16-Jun-23 01:30 LONDON (ICIS)–National Gas released its Gas Winter Review and Consultation on 15 June. For this coming winter, the British grid operator expects: INSIGHT: Shell joins list of companies reviewing chemicals as demand tanks, overcapacity grows By Will Beacham 15-Jun-23 22:36 BARCELONA (ICIS)–Shell has joined the ranks of major chemical companies which are reviewing and rationalising their operations as demand and profitability continue to fall amid rampant overcapacity. INSIGHT: Asia petrochemicals markets plunge in June on supply length – ICIS analysts By Ann Sun 15-Jun-23 18:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Following a weak May, petrochemical markets in Asia are witnessing a further drop in prices in June on supply/demand imbalances. INSIGHT: Shell to be ‘ruthless’ in capital allocation with Singapore petchems, Europe units under review By Joseph Chang 15-Jun-23 05:29 NEW YORK (ICIS)–UK-based energy giant Shell will take a “ruthless” approach to capital allocation along with a focus on simplification. There will be a renewed commitment to oil and gas, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) where returns are expected to be the highest, while chemicals will come under greater scrutiny with the Singapore energy and petrochemical assets under review and European plants being evaluated “unit by unit”. JUNE CRUDE OUTLOOK: Bearish demand narrative confronted by tightening global oil supplies By Cecilia Barreiro 13-Jun-23 22:39 LONDON (ICIS)–Oil prices are expected to continue retreating during the rest of June as worries over the health of the global economy and bearish oil demand prospects depress market sentiment. However, dwindling spare capacity and a tighter sour-crude market could rekindle price volatility in July. PODCAST: China, energy transition spur volatility in oil and chemical markets By Will Beacham 13-Jun-23 20:36 BARCELONA (ICIS)–As China’s economy decelerates and the shift to renewable energy gathers pace, prepare for much greater volatility in the oil and chemical markets. Global spot IPEX down for ninth consecutive week on falls across all regions By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 12-Jun-23 19:31 LONDON (ICIS)–The global spot ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) went down by 1.8% week on week on the back of price declines across all regions. Saudi Arabia 2023 GDP growth slows to 2.1% on oil output cuts – IMF By Nurluqman Suratman 08-Jun-23 15:31 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, is expected to post a slower GDP growth of 2.1% this year in view of production cuts announced in April, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Czech Republic eyes SMRs development in addition to standard reactors by 2030 By Simona Uhrinova 08-Jun-23 01:14 LONDON (ICIS)–The Czech Republic would need to develop small and medium sized modular reactors (SMRs) in addition to standard nuclear plants to reduce its dependence on cross-border imports before 2030. ICIS China May petrochemical price index slumps 7%; June demand stays weak By Yvonne Shi 08-Jun-23 11:33 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sluggish demand sent the ICIS China Petrochemical Price Index in May tumbling by 7% from end-April despite some stability in the upstream crude market during the period. Fears of gloomy summer for Europe PE, PP By Ben Lake 06-Jun-23 19:25 LONDON (ICIS)–Polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) players in Europe are bracing for a challenging summer, with buyers worried by woeful demand, while producers closely monitor already lowered operating rates to avoid dipping into negative margins. Dow cuts Q2 sales guidance on challenging macros By Joseph Chang 02-Jun-23 04:48 NEW YORK (ICIS)–US-based Dow is taking down its Q2 sales forecast to a range of $11.0bn-11.5bn from its prior estimate of $11.75bn-12.25bn on challenging macroeconomic conditions and lower pricing levels, its CEO said at an investor conference. PODCAST: Ukraine SOE corporate governance is vital for reconstruction efforts, specialist By Aura Sabadus 01-Jun-23 21:28 LONDON (ICIS)– Corporate governance rules at Ukraine’s energy state owned enterprises (SOEs) have been critical to market reforms and to helping the country secure a long-term gas transit contract with Russia. NE Asia C2 outlook downbeat on rising regional supply, weak China data By Yeow Pei Lin 01-Jun-23 11:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s ethylene (C2) players are cautious on expectations of rising regional supplies and weak downstream outlook for the third quarter as the recovery in the Chinese economy loses momentum. Caixin China May manufacturing PMI rises to 50.9, first expansion in three months By Nurluqman Suratman 01-Jun-23 11:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Caixin’s China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) picked up from 49.5 in April to 50.9 in May, marking the first expansion in three months, the Chinese media firm said on Thursday. High stocks could curb Italian Q4 ‘23 gas and power risk By Camilla Vitanza 31-May-23 23:44 LONDON (ICIS)– High gas storage levels could reduce some of the risk premium priced in the Italian gas and power Q4 ’23 products ahead of expiry, although LNG supply will likely remain a key driver. China manufacturing weakness weighs on crude; outlook dims further By Nurluqman Suratman 31-May-23 13:36 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's manufacturing sector lost further momentum in May, heightening concerns that oil consumption in the world’s second-biggest economy could weaken further. INSIGHT: Petrochemical prices and margins under relentless pressure By Nigel Davis 31-May-23 00:38 LONDON (ICIS)–The persistent global weak demand environment continues to put pressure on producers and prices are falling as the balance with output remains elusive. PODCAST: Demand flops in chemical markets around the world, gloomy outlook By Will Beacham 30-May-23 20:25 BARCELONA (ICIS)–Chemical markets around the world are suffering from collapsed demand conditions and oversupply with no prospect of a turnaround in the coming months. Depressed US manufacturing activity weighing on PP demand By Zachary Moore 26-May-23 05:40 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Demand for polypropylene (PP) in the US is facing a bearish short-term outlook as the US manufacturing sector remains in contractionary territory. INSIGHT: A tale of two economies, as resurgent services eclipses languishing industry By Tom Brown 25-May-23 23:05 LONDON (ICIS)–After the dark warnings of late 2022, ministers at the European Commission could be forgiven for sounding a little smug. PODCAST: Rampant China chemicals overcapacity could rebalance by 2024/5 By Will Beacham 25-May-23 21:00 BARCELONA (ICIS)–Excess capacity plaguing China’s petrochemical markets could return to more balanced conditions by 2024/5 as the current wave of additions ends and demand gradually improves. APIC '23: INSIGHT: Asia petrochemicals navigate poor demand amid China start-ups; carve 'green' path By Pearl Bantillo 24-May-23 19:50 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Uncertainties will hound Asia’s petrochemical markets for the rest of the year and possibly into 2024 amid the global economic slowdown at a time of strong capacity additions in regional powerhouse China. INSIGHT: Europe petrochemicals demand remains weak and prices under intense pressure By Nigel Davis 23-May-23 23:10 LONDON (ICIS)–This striking chart from Germany’s chemicals and pharmaceuticals trade association, the VCI, does not even tell the full story for the country’s petrochemical and polymers sectors. APIC ’23: Asia PE, PP margins to stay in unhealthy range despite China reopening By Nurluqman Suratman 19-May-23 19:25 NEW DELHI (ICIS)–Asia’s polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets are expected to face poor margins across all production routes despite China’s reopening, an industry analyst said on Friday. APIC ’23: Japan petrochemical plants run at 80% on current demand By Pearl Bantillo 19-May-23 17:13 NEW DELHI (ICIS)–Japan’s petrochemical plants have been running at an average rate of about 80% amid demand uncertainties this year, an industry executive told ICIS. INSIGHT: Fundamental Asia olefin imbalance persists despite better margins By Joey Zhou 19-May-23 14:00 SINGAPORE(ICIS)–Asia olefin margins from major production routes have improved and remained in profitable territory since March, driven by lower feedstock prices. Eurozone inflation rises on energy cost pressure By Morgan Condon 17-May-23 20:05 LONDON (ICIS)–Eurozone inflation edged up slightly on persistent pressure from energy costs in April, as the rate for the wider EU showed a soft decrease, according to the latest data from the EU’s statistical agency Eurostat on Wednesday. Annual inflation in the eurozone rose to 7.0%, up from 6.9% in March.  In the wider EU, annual inflation fell to 8.1%, from 8.3% in the previous month. Compared to a year prior, inflation for the eurozone remained slightly softer, as the rate was pitched at 7.4% in April 2022, while the level remained stable on the previous year for the EU at 8.1%. Global oil demand expectations for 2023 increased in May on stronger China recovery – IEA By Morgan Condon 16-May-23 22:25 LONDON (ICIS)–Global oil demand is set to increase in 2023, driven by strength in China, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday. The IEA’s monthly oil report shows that demand is expected to rise by 2.2m bbl/day year on year in 2023, marking an average 102m bbl/day, supported by economic recovery in China surpassing expectations. Macroeconomic pressures and soft demand was reflected in weaker oil pricing in April and early May, caused lingering concerns of a recession in some regions. The IEA, however, increased its output forecast on a strong recovery in the second half of the year. China is expected to account for nearly 60% of global growth in 2023. INSIGHT: Weak demand dominates chemicals in Q2 as economies drag By Nigel Davis 11-May-23 00:41 LONDON (ICIS)–The persistence and wide spread of the demand slump is the key issue for chemical producers in 2023, now mid-way through the second quarter. Recent financial reporting from chemical companies of all types and in all locations has underlined the impact of weak demand on sales in the first quarter. The year-on-year comparisons have proved to be stark, and reduced production the driver of lower revenues at a time of still high costs of sales. Certainly, the focus in Europe and large parts of the rest of the world has shifted from energy costs (and availability). Higher feedstock costs, slow demand maintain pressure on US polyether polyol margins By Zachary Moore 21-Apr-23 06:41 HOUSTON (ICIS)–A combination of higher feedstock costs along with slower demand has been maintaining pressure on margins for US polyether polyol producers, with margins likely to remain compressed over the next few months. INSIGHT: Plastics, petchems in Europe still waiting for construction season, Q2 may be reality check By Vicky Ellis 20-Apr-23 21:45 LONDON (ICIS)–As warmer, sunnier days grow more frequent, Europe’s construction industry should be ramping up for a busy period. But the season is proving a disappointment, with weaker demand across a wide range of petrochemical and plastics products. INSIGHT: Hope for 2023 European construction market recovery falters as spring demand uptick fails to materialize By Nicole Simpson 19-Apr-23 20:52 LONDON (ICIS)–Since late 2022, chemicals players have been hopeful that better demand is just around the corner but optimism is faltering as economic conditions remain challenging and spring construction demand has failed to ignite. INSIGHT: Diverse Asia April price trends for olefins and aromatics chain chemicals By Jimmy Zhang 19-Apr-23 19:15 SINGAPORE (ICIS)– Weak consumer confidence and economic pressures are expected to weigh on the price outlook for Asia petrochemicals. UK summer demand to drop, exports to France in Q3 likely By Anna Coulson 19-Apr-23 00:07 LONDON (ICIS)–National Grid is confident that there will be sufficient supply to meet electricity demand over the summer, the UK’s Electricity System Operator (ESO) announced in its Summer Outlook 2023 on 18 April. Global oil demand growth hopes pinned on faltering Chinese economy By Barney Gray 12-Apr-23 18:42 LONDON (ICIS)–Chinese government data for March, published earlier this month, indicated that domestic consumer demand is weak and the manufacturing sector was under pressure at the end of Q1, which could hinder the anticipated China-led growth in global oil demand. IMF keeps developing Asia 2023 growth forecast at 5.3%; trims India projections By Nurluqman Suratman 12-Apr-23 13:23 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has kept its 2023 growth forecast for developing Asia at 5.3% but trimmed its forecast for next year amid rising risks in global financial conditions. INSIGHT: Europe chemicals must wait until 2026/7 for gas cost relief By Will Beacham 11-Apr-23 22:58 BARCELONA (ICIS)–Although record inflows of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have helped European gas prices fall, a cold winter could see them soar, with relief from volatility only in prospect for petrochemical customers by 2026/7 when major new sources come onstream globally. INSIGHT: Vietnam economy sputters as first petrochemical complex about to start up By Pearl Bantillo 06-Apr-23 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Vietnam hopes to stem deteriorating manufacturing conditions, borne of weak external demand, by cutting the cost of borrowing to spur domestic activity as it gears toward commercial operations of its first petrochemicals complex. US auto sector faces economic headwinds on rising interest rates, higher prices By Adam Yanelli 05-Apr-23 05:05 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US March auto sales ticked lower from February as economic headwinds have replaced supply chain issues as obstacles facing the industry that relies heavily on chemicals. Developing Asia 2023 GDP to grow faster at 4.8% but downside risks remain – ADB By Nurluqman Suratman 04-Apr-23 12:10 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Developing economies in the Asia Pacific region are projected to grow at a faster pace of 4.8% this year and in 2024 on the back of higher consumption, tourism and investments due to continued easing of pandemic restrictions, but downside risks remain, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said. INSIGHT: Europe chems look to tough Q2 as economic indicators remain choppy By Tom Brown 03-Apr-23 21:47 LONDON (ICIS)–With expectations growing for some of the headwinds buffeting the chemicals sector to ease in the second half of the year, conditions remain challenging for the second quarter, while economic indicators point to a continuing “volatile phase” according to an analyst. Oil surges after surprise OPEC+ output cut, lifting Asia naphtha, benzene By Nurluqman Suratman 03-Apr-23 12:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices rose by more than $6/bbl on Monday after the OPEC and its allies unexpectedly announced further production cuts of about 1.16m barrels per day on Sunday. Hungary unlikely to reach EU intermediate gas storage targets By Irina Breilean 29-Mar-23 12:53 LONDON (ICIS)–Hungary may not reach the next EU intermediate storage fullness target on 1 May, ICIS analysis indicates. EU intermediate targets have been in place since November 2022, in preparation for the start of the 2023 gas winter. The targets apply to all member states with underground gas storage sites on their territories and directly interconnected to their market areas. Intermediate targets are in force for 1 February, 1 May, 1 July, and 1 September, two months ahead of the beginning of the gas year. ICIS data shows storage sites across Hungary were 33.2% full on 27 March, a 26.2 percentage point increase compared to last year. However, this still stands 3.8 percentage points short of the upcoming May target of 37%. Joint gas purchasing uptake may be slow as buyers locked into contracts By Gretchen Ransow 28-Mar-23 23:20 LONDON (ICIS)–Uptake of the EU’s joint purchasing model may be limited in its first year, as companies were already locked into contracts due to “huge panic” about prices in 2022, European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic told the European Parliament’s Committee on Industry, Research and Energy (ITRE) on 28 March. However, if the platform does prove successful the EU wants to extend the model beyond gas to other strategic commodities such as hydrogen, critical raw materials or technologies linked to the energy transition. Sefcovic told ITRE on 28 March that there was still much work to do but joint gas purchasing would give valuable experience for the future. Ukraine's new policy proposals to 'revolutionise' energy sector By Aura Sabadus 28-Mar-23 00:22 LONDON (ICIS)–Ukraine is preparing a raft of wide-ranging regulations that could pave the way for the complete overhaul of its energy sector. The step is a priority for the mid-term, a senior Kyiv-based lawyer told ICIS. Maksym Sysoiev, partner at global law firm Dentons, said the reconstruction of the energy sector is deemed a priority for Ukraine and added that if all regulations that are now under discussion are implemented, they would trigger a “revolution” in the energy sector. Russia to extend export restrictions on fertilizers until November By Deepika Thapliyal 27-Mar-23 22:39 LONDON (ICIS)–Russia is planning to extend restrictions on fertilizer exports until November to guarantee availability in the domestic market, according to the country’s agriculture minister Dmitry Patrushev. Current restrictions on exports are valid until end-May. To curb inflation and to ensure that there was a reliable supply of fertilizers to its farmers, the government imposed export quotas in December 2021. The restrictions have continued since the war with Ukraine broke out in February 2022, although they have not had a significant impact on the availability of Russian fertilizer exports – apart from nitrates. Asia petrochemicals demand tepid on macroeconomy, oversupply concerns By Nurluqman Suratman 24-Mar-23 14:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's petrochemical markets continue to face tepid demand as economic recovery in regional bellwether China remains slower than initially expected, with new production capacities adding to oversupply concerns. European acrylates subdued with underwhelming demand By Mathew Jolin-Beech 24-Mar-23 01:26 LONDON (ICIS)–The European acrylates markets are all currently subdued with demand described as “soft." CDI Economic Summary: US regional banking crisis lowers odds of soft landing By Joseph Chang 23-Mar-23 22:21 NEW YORK (ICIS)–The failure of two sizeable banks (Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank) in the US and the crisis of confidence contagion spreading to other regional banks and now European financial institutions threatens to significantly tighten lending conditions at the very least, further slowing economic growth and potentially tipping US and European economies into recession. Asia PMDI import markets bearish on poor downstream demand By Shannen Ng 23-Mar-23 15:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian import markets for polymeric methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (PMDI) were dominated by largely bearish sentiment in the week ended 22 March. PODCAST: Asia, Mideast PS demand tepid on competitive imports, feedstock volatility By Damini Dabholkar 23-Mar-23 11:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian and Middle Eastern polystyrene (PS) markets are seeing slow demand with regional supply remaining relatively unchanged. INSIGHT: US Fed undeterred from 2% inflation goal means more tough times ahead for chemicals By Joseph Chang 23-Mar-23 05:34 NEW YORK (ICIS)–Even amid a regional banking crisis, the US Federal Reserve remains undeterred in its goal of bringing inflation down to its 2% target. This was evidenced by another 0.25 percentage point rate hike and will mean weakening economic conditions, a lower chance of a soft landing and a more challenging demand environment for chemicals going forward. Phenol energy surcharges will start to disappear on lower TTF, but no demand improvement seen By Jane Gibson 23-Mar-23 00:57 LONDON (ICIS)–Falling upstream gas prices may offer chemical sellers and buyers some relief but the impact on demand levels has yet to be significant. PODCAST: Plunging shipping rates point to normalising global logistics, Europe under pressure By Will Beacham 22-Mar-23 22:58 BARCELONA (ICIS)–Steep falls in container shipping rates indicate that the pandemic-induced logistics crisis may be drawing to a close, but this now makes Europe more vulnerable to a flood of cheap imports from Asia. US R-PET buying sentiment weakens in wake of banking crisis By Arianne Perez 22-Mar-23 20:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian exporters of recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) cargoes are expected to continue to see cautious buying from converters in the US following the banking crisis. INSIGHT: New PE/PP capacities risk derailing nascent Asia polyolefin recovery By Izham Ahmad 22-Mar-23 17:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A wave of new polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) supply in Asia is threatening to upend the tentative demand recovery the region has been experiencing since the end of the Lunar New Year holidays as new suppliers fight to establish market share in an increasingly crowded market. Asia polyamide 6,6 Q2 mood darkened by fiscal year closing, demand outlook By Josh Quah 22-Mar-23 13:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s nylon polyamide 6,6 (PA66) markets remain weak, ahead of turnarounds coming up for some producers in northeast Asia. China PP prices fall to nearly three-year low amid increasing supply, lower-than-expected demand By Lucy Shuai 22-Mar-23 12:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China polypropylene (PP) prices fell to a nearly three-year-low amid increasing supply and lower-than-expected demand, and the market may remain under pressure in Q2. Asia naphtha swings to multi-month lows on volatile crude By Melanie Wee 21-Mar-23 13:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s naphtha markets can expect heightened volatility, largely tracking crude oil futures movement, as demand prospects are being weighed down by market jitters over the health of the global banking system. PODCAST: Subdued spot trading activity in Europe's oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets By Marion Boakye 21-Mar-23 03:35 LONDON (ICIS)–Throughout March – the oxo-alcohols and derivative markets in Europe have experienced weak spot demand, ample supply, and thin import opportunities. INSIGHT: Constrained consumer budgets limit demand for major chemicals consuming sectors By Nigel Davis 21-Mar-23 00:49 LONDON (ICIS)–This is by no means an easy time for chemical producers as the industry’s major downstream markets continue to be influenced by the impact on demand of rising costs and higher interest rates. Europe's chemical sector shrinks – battered by high costs, poor demand and cheaper imports By Will Beacham 20-Mar-23 23:10 BARCELONA (ICIS)–Collapsing Q4 profits and losses for European chemical majors, together with low expectations for 2023, show just how badly the sector is still suffering. Europe markets firm after emergency UBS Credit Suisse purchase By Tom Brown 20-Mar-23 20:15 LONDON (ICIS)–European markets firmed on Monday after Switzerland-based banking group UBS announced plans to acquire embattled rival Credit Suisse, raising market hopes that banking sector contagion may be limited. Global weekly spot IPEX down on price declines across regions By Will Beacham 20-Mar-23 19:11 LONDON (ICIS)–The global weekly spot ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) fell by 2.0% week on week on the back of lower index values across regions. PODCAST: Asian PP markets grapple with increased supply, lower-than-expected demand in 2023 By Damini Dabholkar 20-Mar-23 19:06 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian polypropylene (PP) markets are being challenged by increasing capacity in 2023, especially in the China market, while demand continues to recover more slowly than expected. Crude dips to lowest since December 2021 on banking sector turmoil By James Dennis 20-Mar-23 17:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Crude prices declined on Monday to their lowest levels since December 2021 before recovering on growing financial concerns following equity market losses and instability in the banking sector in Asian trading. Asia petrochemical shares, oil prices weaken after UBS rescue of Credit Suisse By Nurluqman Suratman 20-Mar-23 12:43 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical companies in Asia were mostly weaker and crude futures fell on Monday on fears of a banking crisis contagion, as troubled Credit Suisse was rescued by its Swiss rival UBS in a government-backed deal. INSIGHT: European TiO2 operations at risk, but China may not be the answer By Heidi Finch 17-Mar-23 17:53 LONDON (ICIS)–While energy costs in Europe are more relaxed  compared with 2022 peaks, the TiO2 marketand the wider chemical industry in Europe are still facing residual economic and demand headwinds. European production is at risk, while China/Asia capacity is increasing. Asia glycerine demand weighed down by caution after US bank collapse and turmoil By Helen Yan 17-Mar-23 11:48 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s glycerine spot demand has been weighed down by prevailing caution following the collapse of two mid-sized banks in the US and plunging bank stocks in Europe. INSIGHT: Banking contagion threatens to spread, hit chemicals demand hard By Joseph Chang 17-Mar-23 05:47 NEW YORK (ICIS)–The failure of two sizeable banks (Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank) in the US and the crisis of confidence contagion spreading to other US regional banks and now European financial institutions threatens to significantly tighten lending conditions at the very least, further slowing economic growth and potentially tipping the US and European economies into recession. Asia naphtha tumbles on tepid demand; crude oil losses By Melanie Wee 16-Mar-23 12:56 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia naphtha markets are under pressure on the back of fragile demand, while taking cues from global crude oil futures. INSIGHT: Banking woes rattle US chem shares By Al Greenwood 16-Mar-23 05:03 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Shares of US-listed chemical companies fell on Wednesday amid concerns about the implications of a string of bank failures. Topic Page by Aura Sabadus and Will Beacham. Additional reporting by  Richard Ewing and Sophie Udubasceanu. Maps and graphs by Yashas Mudumbai.

29-Sep-2023

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical markets have slowed down ahead of the long holiday in the Chinese markets, with concerns over long-term demand continuing to weigh on sentiment despite recent gains. NE Asia ICIS Petrochemical Index falls for the first time in 12 weeks Strong oil prices push up production cost Strong pick-up in China post-holiday demand unlikely Pre-holiday restocking waned from mid-September, stepping on the brakes of strong crude-led gains in petrochemical prices in recent months. China will be on holiday from 29 September to 6 October for the Mid-Autumn Festival and the week-long National Day celebration. Upbeat August data out of China, along with stimulus measures for the property sector, provided a recent lift to sentiment, but global macroeconomic uncertainties abound. "The recent improvement in several of China's economic activity indices has convinced many market participants that China’s economy has already bottomed out, thanks to the raft of policy measures that have been rolled out. However, we remain cautious," Japan's Nomura Global Markets Research said in note. In the fourth quarter, rising prices of energy and the general commodity markets, slowing momentum from the services sector and fading summer travel demand in China could weigh on the Asian chemical markets. The ongoing property crisis in the world’s second-biggest economy and the Russia-Ukraine war remain as major headwinds on petrochemical trades. NE ASIA PETCHEM INDEX SNAPS 12-WEEK GAINSIn the week ending 22 September, the weekly ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) for northeast Asia slipped by 1.0% year on year, the first contraction in 12 weeks as China export discussions slowed down. The index tracks price movements of 12 major petrochemicals and polymers. In the aromatics market, benzene prices in Asia trended lower in the week as boost to trade and consumption from China’s latest stimulus measures in early September tapered off and as oil prices cooled off from recent highs of around $95/bbl. A series of stimulus measures were announced in early September for China’s ailing property sector, including reducing down payment requirements for first- and second-time home buyers and lowering interest rates for existing mortgages. Oil prices were trading higher on Thursday, with US crude breaching $95/bbl and Brent trading at above $97/bbl, as the sharp decline in US crude stocks heightened concerns about tightening global supply in the last quarter of 2023 amid prolonged output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. In the previous week, Brent crude had crossed $95/bbl on 19 September, pulling up spot prices of selected petrochemicals, including propylene and acrylonitrile (ACN). Concerns that central banks at major economies will keep interest rates higher for longer, meanwhile, continue to temper gains across commodities markets. In the regional paraxylene (PX) market, prices were being weighed down by weak fundamentals in the downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and polyester markets, with players doubting a strong demand recovery is possible up to year-end. The fourth quarter is typically a lull period for downstream polyester and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets, which, along with a weak global macroeconomic environment and poor consumer spending, will likely keep demand for PX soft. Asia’s polyester export discussions weakened in the week ending 26 September, weighed down by falling feedstock prices and cautious buying sentiment. Trades are expected to be subdued during the China holidays. For olefins, ethylene prices have been stable so far in the week as weak downstream markets offset cost concerns and fewer deep-sea supply. Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene demand for November-delivery regional supply is expected to increase, as exports from the US are expected to dwindle next month due to a tightly shut arbitrage window. In the downstream PE market, demand in southeast Asia was deemed persistently weak amid slowing economic growth, sluggish consumer spending and rising inflation. Many downstream PE converters across the region remained cautious, deeming recent price hikes for October could not be sustained without demand support and a corresponding increase in prices of finished plastic goods. For fatty alcohols, a widening buy-sell price gap is hampering spot deals as demand for home personal care products shrink amid the global economic downturn, but suppliers are upbeat about China’s post-holiday demand. In the ethyl acetate (etac) market, spot discussions in Asia have tapered off in pre-holiday trade amid faltering upstream acetic acid sectors, with a bearish fourth-quarter outlook. In the related butyl acetate (butac) market, constrained spot supply amid plant turnarounds were supporting prices. CHINA MARKET PLAYERS CAUTIOUS Local industry players in China are turning cautious as more than 3m tonnes/year of new capacities are expected to come on stream in the fourth quarter. Polypropylene (PP) prices have been on an uptrend since late January, supported by higher costs and improved demand from China’s re-opening after the pandemic. More than 3m tonnes/year of new PP capacities are expected to come onstream in Q4 in China following the end of the traditional peak demand season earlier in the third quarter. For methanol, prices in the futures market shed 7.9% in the past week, weighing down on the import market, as players turned more cautious, after the market had a bullish run in the previous week. Expectations of tight supply in the fourth quarter and steady end-user consumption, however, could provide some support to the market. In the general purpose (GP) moulding grade polycarbonate (PC) market, the gains in import prices were largely driven by feedstock cost and not by demand. For fatty alcohols, China’s import demand is expected to pick up after the holidays. Currently, a widening buy-sell price gap in Asia is hampering spot deals as demand for home personal care products has shrunk due to the global economic downturn. For ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA), slumping domestic prices have weakened import demand ahead of the holidays. China’s overall exports of goods are likely to remain depressed amid the global economic slowdown, while the country’s property sector is still in shambles. MIDEAST, S ASIA ALSO GRAPPLE WITH WEAK DEMAND Polystyrene (PS) markets in the Middle East and south Asia saw limited activity in the week ending 22 September, while uptake of October polyvinyl chloride (PVC) was dismal. PS offers from northeast Asia spiked following a surge in cost of feedstock styrene monomer (SM), which soared to a one-year high in the first half of September. With most regions in Asia seeing fundamentally weak macroeconomic conditions, PS demand from buyers was unable to keep pace with these increases, causing a wide buy-sell gap. In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, sporadic deals were recorded in the week to 22 September, but most buyers were waiting for offers from a major regional supplier next week. For PVC, rising feedstock costs were deterring uptake of October cargoes, with initial higher offers from several Asian producers being met with lukewarm response from buyers. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: Yangzhou Port in Jiangsu, China – 15 September 2023 (Source: Shutterstock) Additional reporting by Keven Zhang, Damini Dabholkar, Samuel Wong, Judith Wang, Seng Li Peng, Yeow Pei Lin, Izham Ahmad, Helen Yan, Helen Lee, Lucy Shuai and Melanie Wee

28-Sep-2023

SAN ANTONIO (ICIS)–US builders are reducing the sizes of single- and multifamily housing to make them more affordable as mortgage rates reach 20-year highs, an executive at Huntsman said. US mortgage rates have been rising with the benchmark interest rate, which is set by the Federal Reserve. The US central bank could raise rates by one more quarter point from the current 5.25-5.50% as part of its campaign to bring inflation down to its target of 2%. That campaign by the Fed has helped push average mortgage rates to 7.19%, a 20-year high, according to Freddie Mac, a company that buys and securitises home loans. Those higher rates are one of the factors making housing unaffordable to a growing number of US consumers. Home builders are responding by reducing the size of single-family houses by 10%, said Jan Buberl, Huntsman vice president polyurethanes Americas and global propylene oxide (PO)/methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE). For multifamily housing, the reduction is 20%, he said. MULTIFAMILY CONSTRUCTIONBuberl noted that many multifamily projects under construction were financed when interest rates were much lower. It is unclear if similar projects would be viable under today's much higher interest rate environment, he said. POLYURETHANES AND CONSTRUCTIONConstruction is important to Huntsman's polyurethanes business because two-thirds of its sales in the Americas are tied to the sector, Buberl said. Out of that, 60% is tied to residential construction in the Americas and 40% is tied to commercial construction. For residential construction, a lot of Huntsman's polyurethane chemicals are used in insulation and oriented strand board (OSB). For the chemical industry in general, housing is a key end-use market in the form of paints, wire insulation, house-wrap, sealants, roofing materials, resilient flooring, vinyl siding and many other chemical and plastic-related products. Other products include plastic pipe, insulation, paints and coatings, adhesives and synthetic fibres. New housing also generates sales of appliances, furniture, carpet, fixtures and window treatments. In total, each start engenders on average over $13,000 worth of chemistry. AFFORDABILITY CRISISIn years past, consumers would have bought existing homes if they could not afford a new one. However, the US has a shortage of existing homes because of a drought in house construction that followed the 2008-2009 recession. In addition, people who own homes are reluctant to sell them because their purchases were financed with relatively cheap loans, Buberl said. The average mortgage rate for current homeowners is 4%. If consumers continue to hang on to their homes, they may choose to remodel and renovate, which would require polyurethanes and other plastics and chemicals used in construction. IMPLICATIONSAlthough housing is unaffordable for a large number of consumers, a significant share of them are at the age when people typically buy homes. Those demographics, the shortage of housing and the smaller size of new homes could encourage more construction and sales even as mortgage rates remain high. For multifamily housing, higher interest rates could make it more difficult to arrange the financing for future projects. Developers could try to offset those financing pressures by building smaller projects. CURRENT SNAPSHOT OF COMMERCIAL CONSTRUCTIONBuberl noted that office construction is in a difficult situation because of vacancies caused by people working from home. Warehouse construction has just come off of a wave of activity. It is close to equilibrium, with room for some additional growth. Companies are building a lot of industrial plants closer to their customers in a phenomenon known as reshoring or nearshoring, Buberl said. These types of industrial projects have flat roofs that require insulation. Walls also require insulation. Roofs and concrete floors require coatings. The Polyurethanes Technical Conference is held by the Center for the Polyurethanes Industry (CPI). It continues on Tuesday and runs through Wednesday. Interview article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows a home being built. Image by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). (recast with dateline as San Antonio instead of Houston)

26-Sep-2023

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 22 September 2023. US-Asia ethylene trade slows in Oct; Korea’s supply sees uptick By Yeow Pei Lin 22-Sep-23 11:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot demand for November-delivery regional ethylene (C2) supply will increase, as exports from the US are expected to dwindle next month due to a tightly shut arbitrage window. Asia glycerine offers stay firm despite deep-sea Brazilian spot availability By Helen Yan 21-Sep-23 12:39 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Despite more deep-sea Brazilian glycerine coming to the region, producers in southeast Asia are keeping their offers firm in a bid to compensate for the eroded margins in the fatty acids market. Japan August chemical exports fall 12% amid China slowdown By Nurluqman Suratman 20-Sep-23 12:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s chemical exports in August fell by 11.7% year on year to yen (Y) 873.1bn ($5.9bn), weighing on its overall shipments abroad which fell for the second straight month, with China's slowdown continuing to dampen trade. INSIGHT: SE Asia packaging consumption behaviours are changing, but not in the way you think By Jackie Wong 20-Sep-23 14:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Demand for packaging products in southeast Asia is clearly changing for better or worse, judging by trends observed in Indonesia, the region’s most populous nation. INSIGHT: Better sentiment to boost September prices of Asia petrochemicals By Lina Xu 19-Sep-23 11:20 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical prices are expected to increase in September on improved macroeconomic sentiment and forecasts of higher crude oil values, which are being supported by key producers’ output reduction plan until the end of the year. Singapore Aug petrochemical export fall narrows; China demand may rebound By Nurluqman Suratman 18-Sep-23 12:47 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s petrochemical exports declined for the 12th month although the rate of contraction has narrowed to a single-digit level in August, possibly indicating that the worst may be over in view of upbeat China data.

25-Sep-2023

TORONTO (ICIS)–Ford and labour union Unifor have reached a tentative three-year collective deal for about 5,600 Ford auto workers in Canada, thus avoiding a strike. After Unifor extended its strike deadline, the deal was reached late on Tuesday (19 September) – covering wages and pensions, as well as job security amid the transition to electric vehicles (EVs). Neither Ford nor Unifor disclosed details as the deal is still subject to ratification by Unifor members. Unifor will use the deal as a template in upcoming negotiations with General Motors (GM) and Stellantis, it has said. A strike would have hit a Ford assembly plant at Oakville, west of Toronto, along with two engine plants in Windsor, at the US border to Detroit, and two parts distribution centres. The Oakville plant is due to start building EVs next year. Meanwhile, in the US a strike by about 13,000 United Auto Workers (UAW) members at three plants – one each by GM, Ford, and Stellantis – entered its sixth day on Wednesday. UAW’s president Shawn Fain has said that the strike would be extended to other plants if the Big Three Detroit automakers “have not made substantial progress toward a fair agreement” by noon on Friday, 22 September. US-Canada auto manufacturing is tightly integrated, with disruptions in either country affecting suppliers from the chemicals, plastics and other industries on both sides of the border. The petrochemicals industry is paying close attention because an extended  auto strike in the US would massively disrupt demand for polymers. A typical vehicle contains nearly $3,950 of chemistry including chemical products and chemical processing. The automotive industry is a major global consumer of petrochemicals that contributes more than one-third of the raw material costs of an average vehicle. The automotive sector drives demand for chemicals such as polypropylene (PP), along with nylon, polystyrene (PS), styrene butadiene rubber (SBR), polyurethane (PU), methyl methacrylate (MMA) and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA). Additional reporting by Adam Yanelli, Al Greenwood and Joseph Chang Please also visit the ICIS automotive topic page Thumbnail photo shows a Ford Edge vehicle, which is assembled at the Oakville plant west of Toronto; photo source: Ford

20-Sep-2023

The article published on 20 September 2023 included an incorrect conversion rate in the final paragraph. The correct conversion for $300.00/1000m3 is €26.50/MWh. LONDON (ICIS)–Ukraine’s Naftogaz does not intend to renew its transit contract with Russia once it expires at the end of 2024 but Europe’s supply needs may also have to be considered, the incumbent’s CEO told ICIS in an exclusive interview on 20 September. Oleksiy Chernyshov said Naftogaz as the organiser of transit was not profiting from current arrangements since Russia ships much less than what it should do under its contractual obligations. “We are not seeking the renewal of this contract and that’s a clear statement [just] as we are not seeking to continue it right now, [while Ukraine is at war with Russia],” he said. “We service this transit only as a favour to our EU partners not to deprive them of basic needs of gas during winter.” However, he added that if European partners ask for transit to continue, even as the EU set a 2027 phase-out date for Russian gas, Naftogaz would ask for a solution to be found, including to Gazprom’s current refusal to pay in line with existing contractual terms. ARBITRATION Last year, Naftogaz initiated arbitration against Russia’s Gazprom in response to non-payment. It had been involved in a spate of arbitrations with Gazprom over the years, including a recent case, where a tribunal in The Hague awarded $5bn to the Naftogaz Group for losses incurred following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Earlier this month, the Ukrainian military said it had recaptured some of the oil and gas rigs that had been seized. Chernyshov said Naftogaz has not been able to inspect them yet and added that even though some of the rigs had been recaptured, the company would continue to push for the recovery of the $5bn in compensation for lost opportunities, profit and assets. STORAGE Chernyshov insisted that Naftogaz’ main concerns as of now relate to increasing internal onshore gas production and attracting a large number of non-resident companies to use Ukraine’s storage capacity. He said he expected more than 16 billion cubic meters (bcm) to be injected in storage by 1 November, of which 3bcm would be held by non-resident companies. As of 19 September, there were 14.7bcm in stock, of which 2bcm had been injected by foreign companies. To compare, 0.31bcm were injected by non-resident companies at the same time last year. “These volumes [stored by international companies] have not been guaranteed by additional business insurance. It’s great that Naftogaz has a reputation that can inspire trust to these major traders,” he added. Last month, Naftogaz along with the gas grid operator, GTSOU and backed by EU and US partners issued a report confirming that Ukrainian gas transmission and storage could withstand extreme scenarios of simultaneous missile-induced outages and severe market conditions. The report was intended to reassure traders that Ukraine’s gas infrastructure was safe to use despite Russia’s ongoing war. Many traders have been incentivised to inject gas in Ukraine by attractive summer-winter price spreads this year. They told ICIS that as long as winter prices remain €14.00/MWh or higher above current spot levels, they would continue to use Ukrainian facilities. Ukrainian market sources, however, say that if non-resident companies start withdrawing the 2-3bcm volumes they may accumulate in storage until the start of the heating season, Ukraine may face a tough winter. This is because it may be looking to use small gas turbines to compensate for electricity-generating capacity that had been damaged or lost as a result of Russian missile attacks or occupation. IMPORTS AND PRODUCTION Chernyshov, however, is adamant that locally produced gas and volumes held in storage would be sufficient to see Ukraine through the cold season. “Naftogaz has a record number of new wells that we executed over the course of 2023 and we expect 7-8% growth overall this year compared to last year and this would be also increased compared to 2021,” he said. Chernyshov said 54 new wells had been commissioned since the start of 2023 and added that the company’s target is to produce 13.5bcm this year, and 14bcm in 2024. He explained the company’s priority was to bolster local production not only by increasing Naftogaz’ own output but also by supporting private production. As Ukraine banned the export of locally produced gas at the start of war, Naftogaz stepped in to buy volumes from independent companies, snapping up close to 1bcm since April. He said the average purchase price has been $300/1000m3 (€26.50/MWh), which is just over €11.00/MWh lower than current spot TTF gas prices assessed by ICIS. Some EU traders said they expected Naftogaz to buy gas for the remaining weeks of September and for October but Chernyshov rejected the claims. “Formally I can confirm that there will be no imports unless something dramatic happens, such as losses in our internal gas production,” he said.

20-Sep-2023