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Ethylene19-Apr-2024
CHARLOTTE, North Carolina (ICIS)–The US
remains an outlier among advanced nations and
continues to power forward. Inflation has
moderated and central banks are eyeing rate
cuts later this year. Global manufacturing has
stabilized and is recovering in most major
economies.
Output is strongest in emerging economies.
There are signs that China’s recovery has
re-engaged and that Europe’s economy may be
stabilizing, with recovery later this year. The
US economy is outperforming most other
developed countries, keeping the dollar
strong.
Based on a string of hotter-than-expected
readings on inflation, it appears that interest
rates will be higher for longer.
The headline March Consumer Price Index (CPI)
was up 3.5% year on year and core CPI
(excluding food and energy) was up 3.8% year on
year. Progress on disinflation appears to be
stabilizing.
Economists expect inflation to average 3.1%
this year, down from 4.1% in 2023 and 8.0% in
2022. This is above the US Federal Reserve’s
target of 2%. Inflation is forecast to soften
to 2.3% in 2025. As a result, interest rate
futures are now moving towards fewer cuts. The
case is even being made for no cuts.
US MANUFACTURING FINALLY IN
EXPANSIONTurning to the
production side of the economy, the March ISM
US Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3, up 2.5
points from February and above expectations.
This expansionary reading ends 16 months of
contraction in US manufacturing.
Production moved back into expansion, as did
new orders. Order backlogs contracted at the
same pace. Inventories contracted at a slower
pace, which could provide a floor for output.
The long and deep destocking cycle could be
ending, with the possibility for restocking
later this year.
Nine of the 18 industries expanded and demand
remains in the initial stages of recovery, with
obvious signs of improving conditions. The ISM
US Services PMI fell 1.2 points to 51.4, a
reading indicating slower expansion.
The Manufacturing PMI for Canada remained in
contraction during March while that for Mexico
expanded for the sixth month. Brazil’s
manufacturing PMI expanded for a third month.
Eurozone manufacturing has been in contraction
for 21 months. However, the region appears to
be skirting recession. China’s manufacturing
PMI was above breakeven levels for the fifth
month. Other Asian PMIs were mixed.
AUTOMOTIVE AND HOUSING HOLDING
UPTurning to the demand side of
the economy, light vehicle sales eased in
March, and although inventories have moved up,
they still remain low. Economists see light
vehicle sales of 15.8 million this year, before
improving to 16.3 million in 2025. The latest
cyclical peak was 17.2 million in 2018. Pent-up
demand continues to provide support for this
market.
Homebuilder confidence is guardedly optimistic.
Housing activity peaked in spring 2022 before
sharply falling by July 2022. From then and
into mid-2023, housing reports were mixed.
ICIS expects that housing starts will average
1.45 million in 2024 and 1.50 million in 2025.
We are above the consensus among economists.
Demographic factors are supporting housing
activity during this cycle. There is
significant pent-up demand for housing and a
shortage of inventory. But mortgage interest
rates have moved back up in recent weeks and
will hinder affordability and, thus, demand.
US RETAIL SALES, EMPLOYMENT
STRONGNominal retail sales made
another solid gain in March. Sales growth was
marked across most segments. Sales at food
services and drinking establishments also
advanced. Spending for services is holding up,
but the overall pace may be slowing.
Job creation continues at a solid pace, and the
unemployment rate is still at low levels. There
are 1.4 vacancies per unemployed worker, off
from a year ago but at a historically elevated
level. This is still fostering wage pressures
in services. Incomes are still holding up for
consumers.
Our ICIS leading barometer of the US business
cycle has been providing signals that the
“rolling recession” scenario in manufacturing
and transportation may be ending. The services
sector continues to expand, albeit at a slower
pace.
Real GDP rose 5.8% in 2021 and then slowed to a
2.5% gain in 2022. The much-anticipated
recession failed to emerge and in 2023, the
economy expanded by 2.5% again.
US economic growth is slowing from the rapid
pace in the third and fourth quarters, but
those gains will aid 2024 performance of an
expected 2.4% increase. The slowdown in
quarterly economic activity suggests that in
2025, the economy should rise by 1.8% over
average 2024 levels.
Titanium Dioxide19-Apr-2024
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Amid Europe’s industrial
crisis, green shots have started to appear in
eastern countries, giving hopes the downturn in
the region has bottomed out, the CEO at US
paints and coatings major PPG said on Friday.
Tim Knavish added after PPG announced it was
seeking to divest its US and Canada
architectural operations, it has recorded more
interest from potential buyers than expected,
but “no numbers have hit our desk yet”.
Late on Thursday, PPG said its sales
fell in the first quarter as European
demand continued to be in the doldrums, but its
earnings surged as input costs had fallen
considerably.
The company expects an overall improvement in
industrial production globally in the second
half of 2024.
“We just have to get through the second
quarter,” the CEO said, speaking to reporters
and chemical equity analysts on Friday.
As a paints and coatings producer, PPG’s
operations are petrochemicals-intensive. Among
many others, one of its key raw materials is
titanium dioxide (TiO2).
COMING OUT OF THE
DOWNTURNWhile Europe’s
industrial downturn has been the steepest as
the region took the largest hit from sharply
higher natural gas prices after the Russian
invasion of Ukraine, the US performance has
been lacklustre.
Amid overall economic growth, manufacturing has
been the sick man of the mix for many months.
That may have started to turn in March, with
official and private bodies’
statistics showing growth in US manufacturing
at last, and manufacturers
optimistic for the months ahead.
“We expect our sales volumes to continue
recovering for the remainder of 2024…. We are
only 19 days into the month, that’s only a
sixth of the second quarter, but we are
comfortable with the order book and shipments
so far this quarter,” said Knavish.
“We have been speaking to our key end-users in
the past weeks and they are all saying the same
thing about Q1 and Q2, but we are all expecting
a return to more normal growth rates in H2 – we
just have to get through Q2.”
In Europe, however, some key markets such as
France and the Nordics have yet to start any
meaningful recovery, with sales there slower
than the company was expecting, the CEO said.
Despite this, in the eastern economies – with
more emerging markets characteristics than the
European western economies – there has been a
notable improvement.
“We are seeing green shoots in the east, where
we have a strong position, so that gives
optimism. We are also seeing that the deco
[decorating] segment in those hard-hit
countries [in Europe] is also bouncing back
from the bottom, so we don’t expect it to get
worse,” said Knavish.
“The recoveries in the east, they are not the
largest individually but when you add them
together, they are an important part of our
portfolio, countries such as Poland, Romania,
Hungary or Czechia: we do see some green shots
there.”
However, he added that they were not “naive
enough” to believe there will be a V shape
recovery in Europe.
ARCHITECTURAL
DIVESTMENTAt the end of
February, PPG announced it was seeking alternatives
for its US and Canada architectural coatings
business, which has been a drag on profits and
sales volumes.
The company said at the time it would study
whether the division could be divested, be set
as a standalone entity, or be part of a joint
venture.
The CEO did not give much away on Friday,
saying it was early on, but the company was
positively surprised with the level of
interest, adding there had been “minimal if
any” disruption to the daily operations of the
division since the announcement.
“There is a lot of chatter [about this]. But we
are engaging key customers, employees, and
engaging our owners. We expected strong
interest, because of the strength of the brands
and assets … The interest has been even higher
than what we expected. We feel good right now,”
said Knavish.
“Until the numbers start coming in, and we can
look at what is best for shareholder value
creation, it is difficult to say [what the
likely outcome will be]. We’ll have a much
better view in another quarter or so.”
INDIA TAKING OFFKnavish
ended with an interesting reflection about
India. Indians are about to start what is
famously the largest democratic process in the
world, which will end in June.
Current Prime Minister Narendra Modi is widely
expected to win a resounding third term in the
general election, despite many analysts warning
about increasing tensions between Hindus and
Muslims, who are India’s largest minority, with
175 million people.
But the key to Modi’s expected victory may well
be all about the economy.
“I have been going to India for 25 years. There
has always been the talk of higher civil
engineering works, higher industrial production
[but it never seemed to come to fruition],”
said the CEO.
“Now, all that is happening, and the
development is very noticeable for someone who
has been going there regularly.”
Additional reporting by Deniz Koray
Recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate19-Apr-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Senior editor for recycling Matt
Tudball discusses the latest developments in
the European recycled polyethylene
terephthalate (R-PET) market, including:
Food-grade pellet (FGP) prices edge up at
low end
May demand, price expectations unclear
Growing conversations about impact of
Single Use Plastics Directive
Global News + ICIS Chemical Business (ICB)
See the full picture, with unlimited access to ICIS chemicals news across all markets and regions, plus ICB, the industry-leading magazine for the chemicals industry.
Speciality Chemicals19-Apr-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Europe stock markets shifted
onto bearish footing in morning trading on
Friday in the wake of explosions in Iran that
escalated fears of ever-higher tensions in the
Middle East.
Oil prices settled after the initial shock.
Explosions in Iran overnight sent crude pricing
surging more than $3/barrel during the Asia
trading window. Iran state media reported
explosions near air bases close to the city of
Isfahan, which also operates nuclear
facilities.
Watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) stated that there has been no damage to
any nuclear facility, but urged caution.
“IAEA can confirm that there is no damage to
Iran’s nuclear sites. Director General
Rafael Mariano Grossi continues to call
for extreme restraint from everybody and
reiterates that nuclear facilities should never
be a target in military conflicts,” the agency
said in a statement.
Reports have also emerged in the media of
explosions in Iraq and Syria.
Speaking at a G7 briefing in Capri, Italy, this
morning, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken
declined to comment on the developments beyond
disavowing US involvement.
“I’m not going to speak to that, except to say
that the US has not been involved in any
offensive operations,” he said.
No parties have officially taken responsibility
for the blasts, but the incident is the latest
in a volatile week in the Middle East, which
began in the wake of Iran’s drone
strikes in Israel on 13 April, which the
Israel Defence Force (IDF) confirmed had struck
the Nevatim air base.
Crude oil pricing has whipsawed in the face of
the market unrest, breaching the psychological
$90/barrel mark before receding, before surging
close to that watermark again when news of the
blasts in Iran broke.
With no reprisals currently threatened, oil
futures pricing quickly receded, dropping from
$89.42/barrel for Brent at 3:17 BST to well
under $87 in midday trading.
A build in crude stocks also weighed on
sentiment, while diminishing expectations for
imminent central bank rate cuts in the face of
stubborn inflation has also slowed the pulse of
the global economy.
Crude demand growth has been subdued this year
but substantial downward shifts to supply could
substantially tighten conditions, according to
crude analysts at ING.
“If these reports [of explosions] turn out to
be true, fears over further escalation will
only grow, as well as concerns that we are
potentially moving closer towards a situation
where oil supply risks lead to actual supply
disruptions,” the bank said in a note on Friday
morning.
European public markets were also subdued, with
Germany’s CAC 40 and the UK’s FTSE 100 indices
trading down 0.65% and 0.45% respectively as of
13:30 GMT.
Europe chemicals stocks also weakened in early
trading at a more modest level relative to
general markets. The STOXX 600 chemicals index
clumped 0.15% compared to Thursday’s close,
with shares in seven of the 30 component
companies down at least 1-2%. The weakest
performer on Friday so far was Solvay, which
saw shares shed 3.39% of their value as of
13:17 BST.
Thumbnail photo: The city of
Isfahan, Iran. Source: Morteza
Nikoubazl/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Polypropylene19-Apr-2024
DUBAI (ICIS)–Importers in the Middle East are
being hit by surging costs of transporting
goods by land through Saudi Arabia from the
Jebel Ali port in the UAE a shipping crisis in
the Red Sea to the west of the region.
Increased demand meets truck shortage
Polymer market activity slow to pick up
after Eid holidays
Logistics woes may spill into Strait of
Hormuz as tensions escalate
Buyers in Jordan, Syria and Israel have been
relying more on this route to take cargoes
coming in from elsewhere in the world.
Most shipping companies avoid the Red Sea
fearing attacks on commercial vessels by
Yemen’s Houthi militants since late last year
following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war.
GCC suppliers are the main exporters of PP and
PE to the East Mediterranean region and have
been selling most of the material through truck
via Saudi Arabia, with limited quantities sold
via the CFR (cost & freight) Aqba route.
The Red Sea, which has the Suez Canal in the
north, offers the shortest route between Asia
and Europe and shipping access to the East
Mediterranean markets.
From the Jebel Ali port in Dubai to Jordan,
land freight has more than doubled in recent
months, a Jordanian trader said.
”We’ve seen jumps from $60-70/tonne [trucking]
cost from Jebel Ali, to Jordan, via Saudi
Arabia, to … as high as $150/tonne when
ordering non-prime material for both PP and PE
from a major UAE-based supplier,” the
trader said.
The Middle East observed the Muslim fasting
month of Ramadan from 10 March, during which
working hours were reduced, culminating with
the Eid ul-Fitr holiday during the second week
of April.
“Now that we are back from Eid, the
expectations are towards some decreases in the
[land freight] costs,” the trader said.
In March, the spike in freight cost was due
shortage of trucks following a sharp spike in
demand to transport essential goods by land for
Israel from Jebel Ali via Saudi Arabia.
This shortage was exacerbated by Saudi Arabia’s
existing ban on trucks older than 20 years from
transiting through its territories, which came
into effect in 2023.
Trucking demand for polymer cargoes from Oman
and the UAE to Egypt via Saudi Arabia also
increased, causing a sharp increase in freight
cost.
“The cost of [transporting] polymers by truck
to Egypt was around $80-100/tonne before March,
but it increased to $120-140/tonne ahead of
Ramadan Season,” a regional trader said.
Saudi Arabia’s own cost of transporting polymer
cargoes, however, was not affected, market
players said, despite a lot of trucks mobilized
since the beginning of the year to transport
material inland from plants located on the west
coast to ports situated on the east coast, so
be able to ship them to customers in Asia.
Overall polymer market activity has yet to pick
up as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), East
Mediterranean, and North African markets are
just returning from the Eid holiday.
Concerns are now shifting toward repercussions
of a potential full-on war between Iran and
Israel, which could further impact logistics in
the region, specifically in the Strait of
Hormuz, which could cause oil and feedstock
prices to soar.
Explosions in Iran, Syria and Iraq were
reported early on Friday, causing oil prices to
surge
by more than $3/barrel in early trade, with
Brent crude breaching $90/barrel before easing
down.
According to media reports, Israel was behind
the explosions in Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Gulf
of Oman and the Persian Gulf, is bordered by
Iran, Oman and the UAE. It is an important
chokepoint for energy trades from the Middle
East.
On 13 April, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards seized
Portuguese-flagged container ship MSC Aries in
the key shipping lane which Tehran says is
linked to Israel.
On the same day, Iran had launched drones and
missiles on Israel, which it blames for a fatal
attack on an Iranian diplomatic facility in
Damascus that killed a high-ranking member of
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards and eight
other officers.
Focus article by Nadim
Salamoun and Pearl
Bantillo
Click here to read the
ICIS LOGISTICS topic page, which examines the
impact of shipping disruptions on oil, gas,
fertilizer and chemical markets.
Crude Oil19-Apr-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical
companies in Asia slumped on Friday, while oil
prices surged amid escalating tensions in the
Middle East following reported explosions in
Iran, Syria and Iraq.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 falls 2.66% at close of
trade
Brent crude briefly crosses $90/bbl; oil
eases off highs
Israel behind Iran explosions – reports
At 07:24 GMT, Asahi Kasei Corp and Mitsui
Chemicals were down by 1.31% and 1.98%,
respectively, in Tokyo, as Japan’s benchmark
Nikkei 225 shed 2.66% to close at 37,068.35.
In Seoul, LG Chem fell 2.11% as South Korea’s
KOSPI composite fell by 1.63% to 2,591.86.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped by 0.98% to
16,226.07.
In southeast Asia, PETRONAS Chemicals Group
(PCG) slipped by 0.44% while Siam Cement Group
(SCG) was down 2.69%.
High oil prices will continue to squeeze
margins of petrochemical producers, which are
struggling with poor demand and overcapacity.
Middle East markets in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
Bahrain, and Qatar could mirror the movement in
Asia when they open on 21 April. Regional
bourses are closed on Fridays and Saturdays.
Oil prices pared earlier gains in the afternoon
trade in Asia after surging by more than
$3/barrel earlier in the session, following
reports by various media outlets in the Middle
East of explosions in Iran, Syria, and Iraq.
“If these reports turn out to be true, fears
over further escalation will only grow, as well
as concerns that we are potentially moving
closer towards a situation where oil supply
risks lead to actual supply disruptions,” said
Dutch banking and financial information
services provider ING in a note on Friday.
Overnight, oil prices settled mixed following a
sell-off early in the week as financial markets
discounted fears of a war between Israel and
Iran that could disrupt crude supplies.
Explosions were heard around the central city
of Isfahan early on Friday, Iranian media
reported, adding that three drones were
destroyed after the country’s air defense
systems were activated.
Isfahan houses a significant military airbase,
and the province is host to numerous Iranian
nuclear facilities, among them the city of
Natanz, which is central to Iran’s uranium
enrichment efforts.
Iran’s state-run Press TV in a report said that
“important facilities in the Isfahan province,
especially nuclear facilities, are completely
safe and no accidents have been reported”.
Iran initially closed its airports in Tehran,
Shiraz and Isfahan after the attack but has
since re-opened them.
“Normal operations have resumed for flights at
Iranian airports including Imam Khomeini
International Airport and Mehrabad
International Airport in Tehran after temporary
delays,” Press TV said, citing the Iran
Airports and Air Navigation Co.
Elsewhere, Iran’s official IRNA news agency
said a series of explosions in Syria targeted
military sites.
In Iraq, meanwhile, explosions were reported in
the al-Imam area of Babel.
The reports have sparked worry that Israel has
retaliated against Iran’s drone attacks last
week.
Iran launched the strikes on 13 April in
response to a suspected Israeli airstrike on
Iran’s consulate in Syria at the start of the
month.
Prior to the news of Friday’s attacks, Iran’s
Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian
issued a warning during an interview with US
broadcaster CNN on Thursday that Iran would
respond “immediately and with maximum
intensity” to any Israeli aggression.
Focus article by Nurluqman
Suratman
Additional reporting by Nadim Salamoun
Crude Oil19-Apr-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices surged by more
than $3/barrel in Asian morning trade on
Friday, with Brent crude crossing above
$90/barrel before easing midday, amid
heightened fears of supply disruption following
unofficial reports of explosions in the Middle
East.
($/barrel)
Contract
Low
High
Open
Last (at 03:17 GMT)
Previous Settlement
Change
High Change
Brent
June
86.85
90.75
87.04
89.42
87.11
2.31
3.64
WTI
May
82.47
86.28
82.62
84.76
82.73
2.03
3.55
“If these reports turn out to be true, fears
over further escalation will only grow, as well
as concerns that we are potentially moving
closer towards a situation where oil supply
risks lead to actual supply disruptions,” said
Dutch banking and financial information
services provider ING in a note on Friday.
Overnight, oil prices settled mixed following a
sell-off early in the week as financial markets
discounted fears of a war between Israel and
Iran that could disrupt crude supplies.
On Friday, various media outlets in the Middle
East reported explosions occurred in Iran,
Syria, and Iraq.
Israel has launched a missile attack against a
site in Iran, according to US broadcaster ABC
News, while Iran’s semi-official Fars news
agency has reported explosions in Isfahan
province with state television reporting
flights in several cities have been suspended.
Isfahan houses a significant military airbase,
and the province is host to numerous Iranian
nuclear facilities, among them the city of
Natanz, which is central to Iran’s uranium
enrichment efforts.
Iran’s official IRNA news agency said a series
of explosions in Syria targeted military sites.
In Iraq, meanwhile, explosions were reported in
the al-Imam area of Babel.
The reports have sparked worry that Israel has
retaliated against Iran’s drone attacks last
week.
Iran launched the strikes on 13 April in
response to a suspected Israeli airstrike on
Iran’s consulate in Syria at the start of the
month.
Prior to the news of Friday’s attacks, Iran’s
Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian
issued a warning during a interview with US
broadcaster CNN on Thursday that Iran would
respond “immediately and with maximum
intensity” to any Israeli aggression.
Gas19-Apr-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Two US officials confirmed to
BBC
News and partner CBS News in the US that an
Israeli missile hit Iran on 19 April.
Benchmark Brent crude oil has jumped more than
3% to around $90.60 a barrel as reports
filtered out of a strike.
Iran or Israel have not reported any attacks
via official websites.
The official Iran FARS news agency in Iran said
that air defence systems have been activated in
response.
Commercial flights in the Gulf region have been
diverted and suspended for Emirates Airlines,
according to notices, and over Iranian cities,
including Isfahan where explosions this morning
were reported by Iranian media.
Ammonia18-Apr-2024
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Petrobras is to restart its
large-scale ANSA fertilizers plant in
Araucaria, state of Parana, which has been idle
since 2020, the Brazilian state-owned energy
major said late on Wednesday.
The company did not disclose the date it
intends to restart production but said as soon
as “next week” technicians would work at the
site to establish what repair or upgrading work
is necessary to restart the facilities.
The facilities are called Araucaria
Nitrogenados SA (ANSA), a wholly owned
Petorbras subsidiary. They are located next to
Petrobras’ Presidente Getulio Vargas Refinery
(REPAR).
Production capacities stand at 720,000
tonnes/year of urea, 475,000 tonnes/year of
ammonia, and 450,000 cubic meters/year of the
so-called ARLA urea, an additive added to
diesel engines to reduce the emission of
polluting gases.
“In view of the review of the company’s
strategic guidelines approved last year,
investment in fertilizers production is once
again part of Petrobras’ portfolio,” said the
company.
Petrobras new CEO, Jean Paul Prates, was
appointed by President Luiz Inacio Lula da
Silva in January 2023, when he started his
term. Unlike the prior Administration, Lula
wants Petrobras to play a more active role in
the economy.
Lula has repeatedly said Brazil needs to
increase fertilizers production to lessen its
dependence on imports – the country’s trade
deficit in fertilizers is large as its
agricultural output has become on of the
largest in the world. Agriculture is now a
quarter of Brazil’s economy.
Moreover, the significant producer of
fertilizers in the country, Unigel, has
paused production on
two large-scale fertilizers plant due to high
natural costs while it negotiates with its
creditors a debt
restructuring.
The two plants were a 10-year lease from
Petrobras signed in 2019.
Meanwhile, Unigel and Petrobras have been
involved in negotiations to help the former
restart its plants, but an agreement signed in
December is now
under scrutiny. All in all, the two plants
remain idle.
This week, Petrobras said its “re-entry” into
the fertilizers sector would first focus on
“assets that already belong” to it.
Front page picture: Petrobras’ facilities
in Aracaura, state of Parana
Source: Petrobras
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