HOUSTON (ICIS)–Costs for shipping containers from Asia to South America are soaring while rates are plummeting along the other major trade lanes and Maersk will resume transits through the Panama Canal after administrators said they expect to be back to normal in 2025, highlighting this week’s logistics roundup. ASIA-SOUTH AMERICA CONTAINER RATES Rates for shipping containers from Asia to the US and Europe continue to fall, but rates from Asia to South America are spiking, according to data from ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta and as shown below. Market participants said space along the Asia-South America route has tightened as China is exporting a lot of electric vehicles (EVs) to Brazil. A market participant told ICIS that Chinese automaker BYD has booked more than 10,000 containers to ship EVs to Brazil in April. Autos are typically transported using roll-on, roll-off (RoRo) ships that are designed to carry wheeled cargo. But the surge in EV imports from China has taken up most of the RoRo capacity, forcing China to send autos in containers, which is more expensive. A 20-foot shipping container can hold one or two vehicles, and a 40-foot container can hold up to four standard-sized cars, according to IncoDocs, a shipping solutions provider. ASIA-US CONTAINER RATES FALL Rates from east Asia and China to both US coasts continue to fall, along with rates from Asia to Europe, as shown in the following charts. Asia-US rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos were largely steady this week, suggesting to the company’s head of research that rates might be nearing a floor. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said if diversions continue into the Q3 peak season months, shippers can expect rates to increase relative to this floor. STRAIT OF HORMUZ Global shippers are watching the situation in the Gulf of Hormuz after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seized a container ship operated by Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) near the Strait. “If attacks like this one continue, broaden, or Iran moves to completely close the strait, Middle East container flows would feel the strongest impact,” Levine said. A closure would see ports in Kuwait, Iraq and most of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) become inaccessible. Saudi Arabia, with access to their Red Sea port access already challenged, would see their Gulf port access cut off as well. “These disruptions would also impact container hubs in India some of which are part of services that connect south Asia and the Middle East,” Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), which are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. PORT OF BALTIMORE The Unified Command (UC) continues to remove containers from the Dali and clear wreckage from the collapsed bridge at the entrance to the Port of Baltimore. The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) expects to open a limited access channel 280 feet wide and 35 feet deep by the end of April, and are aiming to reopen the permanent, 700-foot-wide by 50-foot-deep federal navigation channel by the end of May, restoring port access to normal capacity. Source: Key Bridge Response 2024 LIQUID CHEM TANKERS US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were stable to lower this week with rates for parcels from the US Gulf (USG) to Rotterdam and the USG to Brazil unchanged. However, rates from the USG to Asia ticked lower and all other trade lanes held steady. On this route, there is no shortage of glycol enquiries. From the USG to Rotterdam, there are bits of part cargo space still available for April. Most of the outsiders’ vessels that were on berth have already sailed, and only the regulars remain at this time as they push tonnage availability. Freight rates are now expected to remain steady for the time being. PANAMA CANAL Wait times for non-booked vessels ready for transit edged higher for northbound vessels and were unchanged for southbound vessels this week, according to the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) vessel tracker and as shown in the following image. Wait times last week were 0.9 days for northbound traffic. The Panama Canal Authority (PCA) said current forecasts indicate that steady rainfall will arrive later this month and continue during the rainy season, which would allow the PCA to gradually ease transit restrictions and traffic could return to normal by 2025. Global container shipping major Maersk said it will resume Panama Canal transits for its OC1 service beginning 10 May, ending its “two-loop” setup it established in January because of transit restrictions brought on by a persistent drought. Please see the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page Additional reporting by Bruno Menini and Kevin Callahan

CHARLOTTE, North Carolina (ICIS)–The US remains an outlier among advanced nations and continues to power forward. Inflation has moderated and central banks are eyeing rate cuts later this year. Global manufacturing has stabilized and is recovering in most major economies. Output is strongest in emerging economies. There are signs that China’s recovery has re-engaged and that Europe’s economy may be stabilizing, with recovery later this year. The US economy is outperforming most other developed countries, keeping the dollar strong. Based on a string of hotter-than-expected readings on inflation, it appears that interest rates will be higher for longer. The headline March Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 3.5% year on year and core CPI (excluding food and energy) was up 3.8% year on year. Progress on disinflation appears to be stabilizing. Economists expect inflation to average 3.1% this year, down from 4.1% in 2023 and 8.0% in 2022. This is above the US Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Inflation is forecast to soften to 2.3% in 2025. As a result, interest rate futures are now moving towards fewer cuts. The case is even being made for no cuts. US MANUFACTURING FINALLY IN EXPANSIONTurning to the production side of the economy, the March ISM US Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3, up 2.5 points from February and above expectations. This expansionary reading ends 16 months of contraction in US manufacturing. Production moved back into expansion, as did new orders. Order backlogs contracted at the same pace. Inventories contracted at a slower pace, which could provide a floor for output. The long and deep destocking cycle could be ending, with the possibility for restocking later this year. Nine of the 18 industries expanded and demand remains in the initial stages of recovery, with obvious signs of improving conditions. The ISM US Services PMI fell 1.2 points to 51.4, a reading indicating slower expansion. The Manufacturing PMI for Canada remained in contraction during March while that for Mexico expanded for the sixth month. Brazil’s manufacturing PMI expanded for a third month. Eurozone manufacturing has been in contraction for 21 months. However, the region appears to be skirting recession. China’s manufacturing PMI was above breakeven levels for the fifth month. Other Asian PMIs were mixed. AUTOMOTIVE AND HOUSING HOLDING UPTurning to the demand side of the economy, light vehicle sales eased in March, and although inventories have moved up, they still remain low. Economists see light vehicle sales of 15.8 million this year, before improving to 16.3 million in 2025. The latest cyclical peak was 17.2 million in 2018. Pent-up demand continues to provide support for this market. Homebuilder confidence is guardedly optimistic. Housing activity peaked in spring 2022 before sharply falling by July 2022. From then and into mid-2023, housing reports were mixed. ICIS expects that housing starts will average 1.45 million in 2024 and 1.50 million in 2025. We are above the consensus among economists. Demographic factors are supporting housing activity during this cycle. There is significant pent-up demand for housing and a shortage of inventory. But mortgage interest rates have moved back up in recent weeks and will hinder affordability and, thus, demand. US RETAIL SALES, EMPLOYMENT STRONGNominal retail sales made another solid gain in March. Sales growth was marked across most segments. Sales at food services and drinking establishments also advanced. Spending for services is holding up, but the overall pace may be slowing. Job creation continues at a solid pace, and the unemployment rate is still at low levels. There are 1.4 vacancies per unemployed worker, off from a year ago but at a historically elevated level. This is still fostering wage pressures in services. Incomes are still holding up for consumers. Our ICIS leading barometer of the US business cycle has been providing signals that the “rolling recession” scenario in manufacturing and transportation may be ending. The services sector continues to expand, albeit at a slower pace. Real GDP rose 5.8% in 2021 and then slowed to a 2.5% gain in 2022. The much-anticipated recession failed to emerge and in 2023, the economy expanded by 2.5% again. US economic growth is slowing from the rapid pace in the third and fourth quarters, but those gains will aid 2024 performance of an expected  2.4% increase. The slowdown in quarterly economic activity suggests that in 2025, the economy should rise by 1.8% over average 2024 levels.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Amid Europe’s industrial crisis, green shots have started to appear in eastern countries, giving hopes the downturn in the region has bottomed out, the CEO at US paints and coatings major PPG said on Friday. Tim Knavish added after PPG announced it was seeking to divest its US and Canada architectural operations, it has recorded more interest from potential buyers than expected, but “no numbers have hit our desk yet”. Late on Thursday, PPG said its sales fell in the first quarter as European demand continued to be in the doldrums, but its earnings surged as input costs had fallen considerably. The company expects an overall improvement in industrial production globally in the second half of 2024. “We just have to get through the second quarter,” the CEO said, speaking to reporters and chemical equity analysts on Friday. As a paints and coatings producer, PPG’s operations are petrochemicals-intensive. Among many others, one of its key raw materials is titanium dioxide (TiO2). COMING OUT OF THE DOWNTURNWhile Europe’s industrial downturn has been the steepest as the region took the largest hit from sharply higher natural gas prices after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US performance has been lacklustre. Amid overall economic growth, manufacturing has been the sick man of the mix for many months. That may have started to turn in March, with official and private bodies’ statistics showing growth in US manufacturing at last, and manufacturers optimistic for the months ahead. “We expect our sales volumes to continue recovering for the remainder of 2024…. We are only 19 days into the month, that’s only a sixth of the second quarter, but we are comfortable with the order book and shipments so far this quarter,” said Knavish. “We have been speaking to our key end-users in the past weeks and they are all saying the same thing about Q1 and Q2, but we are all expecting a return to more normal growth rates in H2 – we just have to get through Q2.” In Europe, however, some key markets such as France and the Nordics have yet to start any meaningful recovery, with sales there slower than the company was expecting, the CEO said. Despite this, in the eastern economies – with more emerging markets characteristics than the European western economies – there has been a notable improvement. “We are seeing green shoots in the east, where we have a strong position, so that gives optimism. We are also seeing that the deco [decorating] segment in those hard-hit countries [in Europe] is also bouncing back from the bottom, so we don’t expect it to get worse,” said Knavish. “The recoveries in the east, they are not the largest individually but when you add them together, they are an important part of our portfolio, countries such as Poland, Romania, Hungary or Czechia: we do see some green shots there.” However, he added that they were not “naive enough” to believe there will be a V shape recovery in Europe. ARCHITECTURAL DIVESTMENTAt the end of February, PPG announced it was seeking alternatives for its US and Canada architectural coatings business, which has been a drag on profits and sales volumes. The company said at the time it would study whether the division could be divested, be set as a standalone entity, or be part of a joint venture. The CEO did not give much away on Friday, saying it was early on, but the company was positively surprised with the level of interest, adding there had been “minimal if any” disruption to the daily operations of the division since the announcement. “There is a lot of chatter [about this]. But we are engaging key customers, employees, and engaging our owners. We expected strong interest, because of the strength of the brands and assets … The interest has been even higher than what we expected. We feel good right now,” said Knavish. “Until the numbers start coming in, and we can look at what is best for shareholder value creation, it is difficult to say [what the likely outcome will be]. We’ll have a much better view in another quarter or so.” INDIA TAKING OFFKnavish ended with an interesting reflection about India. Indians are about to start what is famously the largest democratic process in the world, which will end in June. Current Prime Minister Narendra Modi is widely expected to win a resounding third term in the general election, despite many analysts warning about increasing tensions between Hindus and Muslims, who are India’s largest minority, with 175 million people. But the key to Modi’s expected victory may well be all about the economy. “I have been going to India for 25 years. There has always been the talk of higher civil engineering works, higher industrial production [but it never seemed to come to fruition],” said the CEO. “Now, all that is happening, and the development is very noticeable for someone who has been going there regularly.” Front page picture: PPG’s headquarters in Pittsburgh, in the US state of Pennsylvania Source: PPG Additional reporting by Deniz Koray

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior editor for recycling Matt Tudball discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: Food-grade pellet (FGP) prices edge up at low end May demand, price expectations unclear Growing conversations about impact of Single Use Plastics Directive

LONDON (ICIS)–Europe stock markets shifted onto bearish footing in morning trading on Friday in the wake of explosions in Iran that escalated fears of ever-higher tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices settled after the initial shock. Explosions in Iran overnight sent crude pricing surging more than $3/barrel during the Asia trading window. Iran state media reported explosions near air bases close to the city of Isfahan, which also operates nuclear facilities. Watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that there has been no damage to any nuclear facility, but urged caution. “IAEA can confirm that there is no damage to Iran’s nuclear sites. Director General  Rafael Mariano Grossi continues to call for extreme restraint from everybody and reiterates that nuclear facilities should never be a target in military conflicts,” the agency said in a statement. Reports have also emerged in the media of explosions in Iraq and Syria. Speaking at a G7 briefing in Capri, Italy, this morning, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken declined to comment on the developments beyond disavowing US involvement. “I’m not going to speak to that, except to say that the US has not been involved in any offensive operations,” he said. No parties have officially taken responsibility for the blasts, but the incident is the latest in a volatile week in the Middle East, which began in the wake of Iran’s drone strikes in Israel on 13 April, which the Israel Defence Force (IDF) confirmed had struck the Nevatim air base. Crude oil pricing has whipsawed in the face of the market unrest, breaching the psychological $90/barrel mark before receding, before surging close to that watermark again when news of the blasts in Iran broke. With no reprisals currently threatened, oil futures pricing quickly receded, dropping from $89.42/barrel for Brent at 3:17 BST to well under $87 in midday trading. A build in crude stocks also weighed on sentiment, while diminishing expectations for imminent central bank rate cuts in the face of stubborn inflation has also slowed the pulse of the global economy. Crude demand growth has been subdued this year but substantial downward shifts to supply could substantially tighten conditions, according to crude analysts at ING. “If these reports [of explosions] turn out to be true, fears over further escalation will only grow, as well as concerns that we are potentially moving closer towards a situation where oil supply risks lead to actual supply disruptions,” the bank said in a note on Friday morning. European public markets were also subdued, with Germany’s CAC 40 and the UK’s FTSE 100 indices trading down 0.65% and 0.45% respectively as of 13:30 GMT. Europe chemicals stocks also weakened in early trading at a more modest level relative to general markets. The STOXX 600 chemicals index clumped 0.15% compared to Thursday’s close, with shares in seven of the 30 component companies down at least 1-2%. The weakest performer on Friday so far was Solvay, which saw shares shed 3.39% of their value as of 13:17 BST. Thumbnail photo: The city of Isfahan, Iran. Source: Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto/Shutterstock

DUBAI (ICIS)–Importers in the Middle East are being hit by surging costs of transporting goods by land through Saudi Arabia from the Jebel Ali port in the UAE a shipping crisis in the Red Sea to the west of the region. Increased demand meets truck shortage Polymer market activity slow to pick up after Eid holidays Logistics woes may spill into Strait of Hormuz as tensions escalate Buyers in Jordan, Syria and Israel have been relying more on this route to take cargoes coming in from elsewhere in the world. Most shipping companies avoid the Red Sea fearing attacks on commercial vessels by Yemen’s Houthi militants since late last year following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war. GCC suppliers are the main exporters of PP and PE to the East Mediterranean region and have been selling most of the material through truck via Saudi Arabia, with limited quantities sold via the CFR (cost & freight) Aqba route. The Red Sea, which has the Suez Canal in the north, offers the shortest route between Asia and Europe and shipping access to the East Mediterranean markets. From the Jebel Ali port in Dubai to Jordan, land freight has more than doubled in recent months, a Jordanian trader said. ”We’ve seen jumps from $60-70/tonne [trucking] cost from Jebel Ali, to Jordan, via Saudi Arabia, to … as high as $150/tonne when ordering non-prime material for both PP and PE  from a major UAE-based supplier,” the trader said. The Middle East observed the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan from 10 March, during which working hours were reduced, culminating with the Eid ul-Fitr holiday during the second week of April. “Now that we are back from Eid, the expectations are towards some decreases in the [land freight] costs,” the trader said. In March, the spike in freight cost was due shortage of trucks following a sharp spike in demand to transport essential goods by land for Israel from Jebel Ali via Saudi Arabia. This shortage was exacerbated by Saudi Arabia’s existing ban on trucks older than 20 years from transiting through its territories, which came into effect in 2023. Trucking demand for polymer cargoes from Oman and the UAE to Egypt via Saudi Arabia also increased, causing a sharp increase in freight cost. “The cost of [transporting] polymers by truck to Egypt was around $80-100/tonne before March, but it increased to $120-140/tonne ahead of Ramadan Season,” a regional trader said. Saudi Arabia’s own cost of transporting polymer cargoes, however, was not affected, market players said, despite a lot of trucks mobilized since the beginning of the year to transport material inland from plants located on the west coast to ports situated on the east coast, so be able to ship them to customers in Asia. Overall polymer market activity has yet to pick up as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), East Mediterranean, and North African markets are just returning from the Eid holiday. Concerns are now shifting toward repercussions of a potential full-on war between Iran and Israel, which could further impact logistics in the region, specifically in the Strait of Hormuz, which could cause oil and feedstock prices to soar. Explosions in Iran, Syria and Iraq were reported early on Friday, causing oil prices to surge by more than $3/barrel in early trade, with Brent crude breaching $90/barrel before easing down. According to media reports, Israel was behind the explosions in Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, is bordered by Iran, Oman and the UAE. It is an important chokepoint for energy trades from the Middle East. On 13 April, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards seized Portuguese-flagged container ship MSC Aries in the key shipping lane which Tehran says is linked to Israel. On the same day, Iran had launched drones and missiles on Israel, which it blames for a fatal attack on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Damascus that killed a high-ranking member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards and eight other officers. Focus article by Nadim Salamoun and Pearl Bantillo Click here to read the ICIS LOGISTICS topic page, which examines the impact of shipping disruptions on oil, gas, fertilizer and chemical markets.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical companies in Asia slumped on Friday, while oil prices surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East following reported explosions in Iran, Syria and Iraq. Japan’s Nikkei 225 falls 2.66% at close of trade Brent crude briefly crosses $90/bbl; oil eases off highs Israel behind Iran explosions – reports At 07:24 GMT, Asahi Kasei Corp and Mitsui Chemicals were down by 1.31% and 1.98%, respectively, in Tokyo, as Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 shed 2.66% to close at 37,068.35. In Seoul, LG Chem fell 2.11% as South Korea’s KOSPI composite fell by 1.63% to 2,591.86. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped by 0.98% to 16,226.07. In southeast Asia, PETRONAS Chemicals Group (PCG) slipped by 0.44% while Siam Cement Group (SCG) was down 2.69%. High oil prices will continue to squeeze margins of petrochemical producers, which are struggling with poor demand and overcapacity. Middle East markets in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar could mirror the movement in Asia when they open on 21 April. Regional bourses are closed on Fridays and Saturdays. Oil prices pared earlier gains in the afternoon trade in Asia after surging by more than $3/barrel earlier in the session, following reports by various media outlets in the Middle East of explosions in Iran, Syria, and Iraq. “If these reports turn out to be true, fears over further escalation will only grow, as well as concerns that we are potentially moving closer towards a situation where oil supply risks lead to actual supply disruptions,” said Dutch banking and financial information services provider ING in a note on Friday. Overnight, oil prices settled mixed following a sell-off early in the week as financial markets discounted fears of a war between Israel and Iran that could disrupt crude supplies. Explosions were heard around the central city of Isfahan early on Friday, Iranian media reported, adding that three drones were destroyed after the country’s air defense systems were activated. Isfahan houses a significant military airbase, and the province is host to numerous Iranian nuclear facilities, among them the city of Natanz, which is central to Iran’s uranium enrichment efforts. Iran’s state-run Press TV in a report said that “important facilities in the Isfahan province, especially nuclear facilities, are completely safe and no accidents have been reported”. Iran initially closed its airports in Tehran, Shiraz and Isfahan after the attack but has since re-opened them. “Normal operations have resumed for flights at Iranian airports including Imam Khomeini International Airport and Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran after temporary delays,” Press TV said, citing the Iran Airports and Air Navigation Co. Elsewhere, Iran’s official IRNA news agency said a series of explosions in Syria targeted military sites. In Iraq, meanwhile, explosions were reported in the al-Imam area of Babel. The reports have sparked worry that Israel has retaliated against Iran’s drone attacks last week. Iran launched the strikes on 13 April in response to a suspected Israeli airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Syria at the start of the month. Prior to the news of Friday’s attacks, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian issued a warning during an interview with US broadcaster CNN on Thursday that Iran would respond “immediately and with maximum intensity” to any Israeli aggression. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Additional reporting by Nadim Salamoun

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices surged by more than $3/barrel in Asian morning trade on Friday, with Brent crude crossing above $90/barrel before easing midday, amid heightened fears of supply disruption following unofficial reports of explosions in the Middle East. ($/barrel) Contract Low High Open Last (at 03:17 GMT) Previous Settlement Change High Change Brent June 86.85 90.75 87.04 89.42 87.11 2.31 3.64 WTI May 82.47 86.28 82.62 84.76 82.73 2.03 3.55 “If these reports turn out to be true, fears over further escalation will only grow, as well as concerns that we are potentially moving closer towards a situation where oil supply risks lead to actual supply disruptions,” said Dutch banking and financial information services provider ING in a note on Friday. Overnight, oil prices settled mixed following a sell-off early in the week as financial markets discounted fears of a war between Israel and Iran that could disrupt crude supplies. On Friday, various media outlets in the Middle East reported explosions occurred in Iran, Syria, and Iraq. Israel has launched a missile attack against a site in Iran, according to US broadcaster ABC News, while Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency has reported explosions in Isfahan province with state television reporting flights in several cities have been suspended. Isfahan houses a significant military airbase, and the province is host to numerous Iranian nuclear facilities, among them the city of Natanz, which is central to Iran’s uranium enrichment efforts. Iran’s official IRNA news agency said a series of explosions in Syria targeted military sites. In Iraq, meanwhile, explosions were reported in the al-Imam area of Babel. The reports have sparked worry that Israel has retaliated against Iran’s drone attacks last week. Iran launched the strikes on 13 April in response to a suspected Israeli airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Syria at the start of the month. Prior to the news of Friday’s attacks, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian issued a warning during a interview with US broadcaster CNN on Thursday that Iran would respond “immediately and with maximum intensity” to any Israeli aggression.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Two US officials confirmed to BBC News and partner CBS News in the US that an Israeli missile hit Iran on 19 April. Benchmark Brent crude oil has jumped more than 3% to around $90.60 a barrel as reports filtered out of a strike. Iran or Israel have not reported any attacks via official websites. The official Iran FARS news agency in Iran said that air defence systems have been activated in response. Commercial flights in the Gulf region have been diverted and suspended for Emirates Airlines, according to notices, and over Iranian cities, including Isfahan where explosions this morning were reported by Iranian media.