Europe Outlook Stories 2025 Summary

ICIS Editorial

13-Jan-2025

LONDIN (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Europe Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025.

Click on a headline to read the full story.

2025 OUTLOOKS SUMMARY

OUTLOOK ’25: Global fertilizer sector braced for a tricky start to 2025
The global fertilizer sector is bracing itself for a bumpy ride moving into 2025 as it starts the year with high operating costs and struggling grain markets, making affordability for farmers and growers a key concern.

OUTLOOK ‘25: New production capacity expected to drive the ammonia market in 2025
Ammonia players are expecting more supply to come onstream in 2025 which could support a subdued market.

OUTLOOK ‘25: Refining constraints, Dangote disruption, cracker closures to shake Europe naphtha market
After a tumultuous 2024, the outlook for the naphtha and gasoline markets in 2025 reflects a complex interplay of supply dynamics, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical factors.

OUTLOOK: 2025 will be critical to Europe pyrolysis oil scalability
Legislative uncertainty, long commissioning times and macroeconomic headwinds will continue to negatively weigh on European pyrolysis oil market growth and investment decisions in 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Jet fuel demand poised for take-off despite oversupply worries
Jet fuel demand in Europe is expected to maintain an upward trajectory in 2025 despite a potential supply glut. However, much will depend on the airline industry’s ability to navigate through economic and geopolitical turbulence and its commitment to adopt sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ethanol market could face supply challenges amid demand stability
Mixed harvest yields in 2024 lead as one of several supply factors that is likely to shape the European ethanol market in 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe biodiesel to face mixed supply, sluggish blending rates
Evolving supply factors are set to meet relatively stable-to-low demand in the European biodiesel market for 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: More of the same for Europe ethylene, propylene
The best we can hope for is a re-run of 2024, European ethylene and propylene market players say, and there is very little expectation that Europe’s base case demand improves in any meaningful way in 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ethanolamines market 2025 expectations subdued but braced for any supply shocks
For 2025, similar underlying demand trends seen in the second half of 2024 are expected to carry across into the first half of 2025 with sentiment to remain broadly subdued.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PE faces triple threat of cost squeeze, overcapacity, longer supply chains
European polyethylene (PE) markets face a triple whammy of high local costs, overcapacity globally and the risk of lengthening supply chains at a time when global trade flows are threatened by tariff wars in 2025

OUTLOOK ’25: Economic woes to continue stifling Turkish PE/PP demand
Economic concerns continue to dampen demand expectations for Turkish polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) for the first half of 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Africa PE/PP players expect year of stagnation on oversupplied market
Could 2025 finally be the year? A return to healthy polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) demand across Africa?

OUTLOOK ’25: Positive view for European R-LDPE packaging grades, other sectors face tough start
Demand for low and high melt flow index (MFI) grades of recycled low density polyethylene (R-LDPE) from the packaging sector will continue to grow in 2025 but construction-related grades may suffer due to low end-use market demand.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe R-HDPE packaging/non-packaging divide deepens
The fragmentation between packaging and non-packaging grades of Europe recycled high density polyethylene (R-HDPE) is expected to continue in 2025, while consolidation risk across the market remains high – particularly for companies heavily exposed to the construction sector.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe R-PP increasingly fragmented by end-use demand
Demand for Europe recycled polypropylene (R-PP) has radically diverged by the end-use market across 2024, and this is expected to continue in 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PP players eye pain points from old plants, tariff threats and limp manufacturing
2024 was dominated by supply-driven dynamics and 2025 looks unlikely to be much different for Europe’s polypropylene (PP) market.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe Mixed plastic waste demand remains driven by mechanical recycling in 2025
Europe mixed plastic waste demand will remain weak for as long as overall industrial production remains limited by macroeconomic headwinds.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ACN set for another year of confined demand
Downstream demand constraints brought on by geopolitics-led macroeconomic challenges are anticipated to persist into 2025 for Europe’s acrylonitrile (ACN) market.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe BDO demand pessimism to continue under the gloom of rising capacities in China
There is a growing sense of apathy among players in the European butanediol (BDO) market when it comes to discussing demand hopes for 2025 as there are no expectations of an uptick and there is a prevalence of worry ahead of growing capacity in China in an already oversupplied market.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe SBR demand overshadowed by automotive challenges
European styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand could lift slightly in January on restocking activity, but there are still longer-term concerns over the timeline for recovery of the automotive industry.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ABS and SAN demand to stay weak, imports unclear as ABS ADD investigation begins
Demand has been mostly weak throughout 2024 in the Europe acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) markets, as downstream sectors have continued to be impacted by ongoing pressures, and similar is expected to continue into 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe OX market to see little demand recovery despite lower interest rates
The European orthoxylene (OX) market is gearing up for 2025 with the expectation of stable-to-slightly firmer downstream demand, in particular from the second quarter onwards.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PX demand to remain downbeat in H1 2025 amid downstream rationalizations, imports
Paraxylene (PX) demand pessimism in Europe is expected to continue in the first half of 2025 due to the rationalization of downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) plants in the region.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe CX, capro markets face stable, low demand in 2025
The European cyclohexane (CX) and caprolactam (capro) markets face broadly stable but overall weak demand in 2025, as a lack of optimism in key downstream sectors and ongoing challenging macroeconomic conditions hit sentiment.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe MX consumption to remain subdued
Downstream requirements for mixed xylenes (MX) in Europe was limited in 2024 and there are similar expectations for 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe styrene market squeezed as imports climb, demand feeble
The European styrene market is expected to face increased competition and complexity in 2025, requiring players to navigate fragile domestic supply, a bearish and uncertain demand outlook, and rising import volumes.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PS, EPS demand mostly unchanging, potential PS import competition
Throughout 2024, the Europe polystyrene (PS) market has faced stable demand at a low level, and expandable polystyrene (EPS) demand has been very weak, as ongoing pressures have continued to impact downstream activity in both markets, and 2025 could be similar.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe benzene market limps into 2025 as supply surplus, demand uncertainty prevails
The Europe benzene market is expected to see generally sufficient supply in the first half of 2025, with tightness likely only in the Mediterranean region.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe toluene supply conditions to be in better shape than demand
Consumption of toluene in Europe ended up limited in 2024 with supply in relatively in good condition, with similar views for 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PET/PTA markets hang by a thread in battle to survive
The polyethylene terephthalate (PET) value chain in Europe remains in survival mode as consumption is negatively affected by macroeconomics, while costs and logistics remain challenging.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe R-PET hopes for better year but challenges remain
Participants across the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market are hoping for better demand from Q1 2025 after the Single Use Plastics Directive (SUPD) comes into force in January, but cheap PET, imports of R-PET flake and pellet, and unpredictable consumer spending all pose potential problems.

OUTLOOK ’25: European MEG supply more limited at end Q1, demand expectations bearish
European monethylene glycol (MEG) supply could be more balanced at the end of the first quarter or beginning of the second on turnarounds, but general concerns surrounding oversupply and slow demand continue to dampen expectations of a sustained market recovery.

OUTLOOK ’25: Low but steady demand expected in Europe nylon market
Europe nylon 6 and nylon 6,6 markets face ongoing low but overall stable demand in 2025, as key downstream markets are in peril from persistently challenging macroeconomic conditions and low end-buyer demand.

OUTLOOK 25’: PVC demand may return to growth but unlikely to offset overcapacity
The polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market in Europe is likely to see a modest recovery in 2025 after demand weakness in 2024, but this will be offset by excess global capacity and low utilization rates at existing plants.

OUTLOOK 25’: Last caustic soda producer to sit down is out
2025 is likely to resemble a high-stakes game of musical chairs for European chlor-alkali producers.

OUTLOOK ’25: Ample supply for Europe acetic acid and VAM despite import constraints, outages
Weak demand was the most significant influence on European acetic acid and derivative vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) conditions throughout 2024.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe AA bracing for ‘more of the same’ for 2025
The Europe acrylic acid (AA) market is bracing itself for “more of the same” with the challenges of 2024 set to roll into the New Year.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe acrylate esters bracing for continued challenges in 2025
The Europe acrylate ester market is bracing for the challenges of 2024 to continue into 2025, with added geopolitical and economic volatility.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe MMA set to see 2024 challenges continue into 2025
The Europe methyl methacrylate (MMA) is bracing itself for the challenges seen in 2024 to continue into the New Year.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PMMA hoping for demand growth, but bracing for stagnant market
The Europe polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) market is bracing for 2025 to be “more of the same” with the challenges of 2024 continuing.

OUTLOOK ’25: European phenol and acetone markets face demand stagnation and global capacity growth in 2025
Fresh global capacity, low domestic demand, logistics difficulties and volatile feedstocks will all challenge Europe’s phenol and acetone markets in 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: European refinery solvents to track feedstocks in 2025, demand trends unchanged
In 2025, European refinery solvents markets will be pinned to the developments in upstream crude and energy sectors.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe methylene chloride consumption to remain stable in H1
Demand for methylene chloride (MEC) in Europe is projected to stay stable at a low level, as persistent challenges that plagued the market in 2024 are expected to continue in 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe EO demand expected to lift slightly in January
European ethylene oxide (EO) 2025 discussions largely centred around stable-to-soft agreements, depending on starting point and account, at the end of 2024, even as demand is expected to increase in January.

OUTLOOK ’25: Demand stagnates, capacity expands in Europe MPG, PO markets
Players in the European mono propylene glycol (MPG) and upstream propylene oxide (PO) markets expect familiar challenges, including oversupply and weak demand, will persist well into 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe polyols and isocyanates demand recovery handicapped by sluggish downstream markets
The polyols and isocyanates market in Europe is finishing 2024 with lethargic consumption, with 2025 being held back by slow momentum from major end user sectors.

OUTLOOK ’25: Slow start to 2025 expected in Europe propylene glycol ethers market, no significant supply concerns
A subdued start is anticipated in the European market for propylene glycol ethers in 2025. Price changes are expected to continue to be led by availability fluctuations with few anticipating much demand recovery in the first half of the year and potentially beyond.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe butyl glycol ethers market set for lacklustre H1 2025, focus remains on availability
The outlook for the European butyl glycol (BG) and butyl di-glycol (BdG) market is largely subdued heading into 2025. Despite a spate of planned maintenances scheduled for Q1, there is not significant supply concern in the main.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe BPA market set to navigate various challenges
The European bisphenol A (BPA) market is not likely to face an easy ride in terms of demand in 2025, with no sign of any recovery in key end sectors, a few lost outlets structurally and with competition from Asia likely to remain strong.

OUTLOOK ’25: MA, PA demand weakness ongoing, H1 supply outlooks differ but Asian reliance growing
European maleic anhydride (MA) and phthalic anhydride (PA) markets in Europe will face similar supply-demand dynamics in 2025 to those in 2024, with a challenging macroeconomic environment expected to continue crippling demand for most of the year and complex supply scenarios with difficult logistics continuing.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe melamine still in survival mode amid poor demand, high production costs
European melamine suppliers remain pressured by high production costs and low margins heading into 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe IPA and MEK supply to remain ample despite import constraints, capacity consolidation
The European isopropanol (IPA) and methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) markets were defined by muted consumption and ample availability for most of 2024.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ECH supply rather than demand under the spotlight for 2025
Europe epichlorohydrin (ECH) supply rather than demand is likely to be subject to more change in 2025, in view of Westlake’s ECH Pernis plant idling and possible adjusted trade flows in response to various trade defense cases and measures.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe fatty acids, alcohols to grapple with ongoing high feedstock costs in H1
European oleochemicals face another challenging year ahead, with squeezed fatty alcohol supply and improved palm-based fatty acids availability versus elevated feedstock costs.

OUTLOOK ’25: EU epoxy players on the cusp of a new normal, pending EU AD decision
EU Epoxy market players are preparing for a new normal in 2025 and shifts in sourcing strategy, based on expected anti-dumping (AD) duties on Chinese and other Asian product, but the prospect of a recovery remains slim.

OUTLOOK ’25: Europe paraffin wax market likely to see minimal demand recovery
The forecast for European paraffin wax in 2025 is weak, particularly during the first half. The market is expected to face ongoing challenges like those experienced in 2024.

OUTLOOK ’25: EU ADD leverage on Chinese TiO2 imports dimmed by weak demand
The final EU anti-dumping measures on Chinese TiO2 imports are unlikely to bring any domestic support into 2025, despite profitability struggles in the TiO2 industry, as the underlying demand outlook remains bleak.

OUTLOOK ’25: Poland’s Azoty, Orlen face hard yards on journey back to health
When in November Poland’s Grupa Azoty fairly leapt at the chance to move into the government-backed production of explosives, it served as a further confirmation of the deep hole Europe’s second largest fertilizer maker finds itself in.

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