Europe Outlook Stories 2025 Summary
ICIS Editorial
13-Jan-2025
LONDIN (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Europe Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025.
Click on a headline to read the full story.
2025 OUTLOOKS SUMMARY
OUTLOOK ’25: Global
fertilizer sector braced for a tricky start
to 2025
The global fertilizer sector is bracing
itself for a bumpy ride moving into 2025 as
it starts the year with high operating costs
and struggling grain markets, making
affordability for farmers and growers a key
concern.
OUTLOOK ‘25: New production capacity expected
to drive the ammonia market in 2025
Ammonia players are expecting more supply to
come onstream in 2025 which could support a
subdued market.
OUTLOOK ‘25: Refining
constraints, Dangote disruption, cracker
closures to shake Europe naphtha
market
After a tumultuous 2024, the outlook for the
naphtha and gasoline markets in 2025 reflects
a complex interplay of supply dynamics,
demand fluctuations, and geopolitical
factors.
OUTLOOK: 2025 will be
critical to Europe pyrolysis oil
scalability
Legislative uncertainty, long commissioning
times and macroeconomic headwinds will
continue to negatively weigh on European
pyrolysis oil market growth and investment
decisions in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Jet fuel
demand poised for take-off despite oversupply
worries
Jet fuel demand in Europe is expected to
maintain an upward trajectory in 2025 despite
a potential supply glut. However, much will
depend on the airline industry’s ability to
navigate through economic and geopolitical
turbulence and its commitment to adopt
sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
ethanol market could face supply challenges
amid demand stability
Mixed harvest yields in 2024 lead as one of
several supply factors that is likely to
shape the European ethanol market in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
biodiesel to face mixed supply, sluggish
blending rates
Evolving supply factors are set to meet
relatively stable-to-low demand in the
European biodiesel market for 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: More of
the same for Europe ethylene,
propylene
The best we can hope for is a re-run of 2024,
European ethylene and propylene market
players say, and there is very little
expectation that Europe’s base case demand
improves in any meaningful way in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
ethanolamines market 2025 expectations
subdued but braced for any supply
shocks
For 2025, similar underlying demand trends
seen in the second half of 2024 are expected
to carry across into the first half of 2025
with sentiment to remain broadly subdued.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PE
faces triple threat of cost squeeze,
overcapacity, longer supply chains
European polyethylene (PE) markets face a
triple whammy of high local costs,
overcapacity globally and the risk of
lengthening supply chains at a time when
global trade flows are threatened by tariff
wars in 2025
OUTLOOK ’25: Economic
woes to continue stifling Turkish PE/PP
demand
Economic concerns continue to dampen demand
expectations for Turkish polyethylene (PE)
and polypropylene (PP) for the first half of
2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Africa
PE/PP players expect year of stagnation on
oversupplied market
Could 2025 finally be the year? A return to
healthy polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene
(PP) demand across Africa?
OUTLOOK ’25: Positive
view for European R-LDPE packaging grades,
other sectors face tough start
Demand for low and high melt flow index (MFI)
grades of recycled low density polyethylene
(R-LDPE) from the packaging sector will
continue to grow in 2025 but
construction-related grades may suffer due to
low end-use market demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
R-HDPE packaging/non-packaging divide
deepens
The fragmentation between packaging and
non-packaging grades of Europe recycled high
density polyethylene (R-HDPE) is expected to
continue in 2025, while consolidation risk
across the market remains high – particularly
for companies heavily exposed to the
construction sector.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
R-PP increasingly fragmented by end-use
demand
Demand for Europe recycled polypropylene
(R-PP) has radically diverged by the end-use
market across 2024, and this is expected to
continue in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PP
players eye pain points from old plants,
tariff threats and limp
manufacturing
2024 was dominated by supply-driven dynamics
and 2025 looks unlikely to be much different
for Europe’s polypropylene (PP) market.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
Mixed plastic waste demand remains driven by
mechanical recycling in 2025
Europe mixed plastic waste demand will remain
weak for as long as overall industrial
production remains limited by macroeconomic
headwinds.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ACN
set for another year of confined
demand
Downstream demand constraints brought on by
geopolitics-led macroeconomic challenges are
anticipated to persist into 2025 for Europe’s
acrylonitrile (ACN) market.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe BDO
demand pessimism to continue under the gloom
of rising capacities in China
There is a growing sense of apathy among
players in the European butanediol (BDO)
market when it comes to discussing demand
hopes for 2025 as there are no expectations
of an uptick and there is a prevalence of
worry ahead of growing capacity in China in
an already oversupplied market.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe SBR
demand overshadowed by automotive
challenges
European styrene butadiene rubber (SBR)
demand could lift slightly in January on
restocking activity, but there are still
longer-term concerns over the timeline for
recovery of the automotive industry.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ABS
and SAN demand to stay weak, imports unclear
as ABS ADD investigation begins
Demand has been mostly weak throughout 2024
in the Europe acrylonitrile butadiene styrene
(ABS) and styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN)
markets, as downstream sectors have continued
to be impacted by ongoing pressures, and
similar is expected to continue into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe OX
market to see little demand recovery despite
lower interest rates
The European orthoxylene (OX) market is
gearing up for 2025 with the expectation of
stable-to-slightly firmer downstream demand,
in particular from the second quarter
onwards.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PX
demand to remain downbeat in H1 2025 amid
downstream rationalizations,
imports
Paraxylene (PX) demand pessimism in Europe is
expected to continue in the first half of
2025 due to the rationalization of downstream
purified terephthalic acid (PTA) plants in
the region.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe CX,
capro markets face stable, low demand in
2025
The European cyclohexane (CX) and caprolactam
(capro) markets face broadly stable but
overall weak demand in 2025, as a lack of
optimism in key downstream sectors and
ongoing challenging macroeconomic conditions
hit sentiment.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe MX consumption to remain
subdued
Downstream requirements for mixed xylenes
(MX) in Europe was limited in 2024 and there
are similar expectations for 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
styrene market squeezed as imports climb,
demand feeble
The European styrene market is expected to
face increased competition and complexity in
2025, requiring players to navigate fragile
domestic supply, a bearish and uncertain
demand outlook, and rising import volumes.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PS,
EPS demand mostly unchanging, potential PS
import competition
Throughout 2024, the Europe polystyrene (PS)
market has faced stable demand at a low
level, and expandable polystyrene (EPS)
demand has been very weak, as ongoing
pressures have continued to impact downstream
activity in both markets, and 2025 could be
similar.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
benzene market limps into 2025 as supply
surplus, demand uncertainty
prevails
The Europe benzene market is expected to see
generally sufficient supply in the first half
of 2025, with tightness likely only in the
Mediterranean region.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
toluene supply conditions to be in better
shape than demand
Consumption of toluene in Europe ended up
limited in 2024 with supply in relatively in
good condition, with similar views for 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
PET/PTA markets hang by a thread in battle to
survive
The polyethylene terephthalate (PET) value
chain in Europe remains in survival mode as
consumption is negatively affected by
macroeconomics, while costs and logistics
remain challenging.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
R-PET hopes for better year but challenges
remain
Participants across the European recycled
polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market are
hoping for better demand from Q1 2025 after
the Single Use Plastics Directive (SUPD)
comes into force in January, but cheap PET,
imports of R-PET flake and pellet, and
unpredictable consumer spending all pose
potential problems.
OUTLOOK ’25: European
MEG supply more limited at end Q1, demand
expectations bearish
European monethylene glycol (MEG) supply
could be more balanced at the end of the
first quarter or beginning of the second on
turnarounds, but general concerns surrounding
oversupply and slow demand continue to dampen
expectations of a sustained market recovery.
OUTLOOK ’25: Low but
steady demand expected in Europe nylon
market
Europe nylon 6 and nylon 6,6 markets face
ongoing low but overall stable demand in
2025, as key downstream markets are in peril
from persistently challenging macroeconomic
conditions and low end-buyer demand.
OUTLOOK 25’: PVC demand
may return to growth but unlikely to offset
overcapacity
The polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market in Europe
is likely to see a modest recovery in 2025
after demand weakness in 2024, but this will
be offset by excess global capacity and low
utilization rates at existing plants.
OUTLOOK 25’: Last
caustic soda producer to sit down is
out
2025 is likely to resemble a high-stakes game
of musical chairs for European chlor-alkali
producers.
OUTLOOK ’25: Ample
supply for Europe acetic acid and VAM despite
import constraints, outages
Weak demand was the most significant
influence on European acetic acid and
derivative vinyl acetate monomer (VAM)
conditions throughout 2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe AA
bracing for ‘more of the same’ for
2025
The Europe acrylic acid (AA) market is
bracing itself for “more of the same” with
the challenges of 2024 set to roll into the
New Year.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
acrylate esters bracing for continued
challenges in 2025
The Europe acrylate ester market is bracing
for the challenges of 2024 to continue into
2025, with added geopolitical and economic
volatility.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe MMA
set to see 2024 challenges continue into
2025
The Europe methyl methacrylate (MMA) is
bracing itself for the challenges seen in
2024 to continue into the New Year.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
PMMA hoping for demand growth, but bracing
for stagnant market
The Europe polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA)
market is bracing for 2025 to be “more of the
same” with the challenges of 2024 continuing.
OUTLOOK ’25: European phenol and acetone
markets face demand stagnation and global
capacity growth in 2025
Fresh global capacity, low domestic demand,
logistics difficulties and volatile
feedstocks will all challenge Europe’s phenol
and acetone markets in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: European refinery solvents to
track feedstocks in 2025, demand trends
unchanged
In 2025, European refinery solvents markets
will be pinned to the developments in
upstream crude and energy sectors.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe methylene chloride
consumption to remain stable in H1
Demand for methylene chloride (MEC) in Europe
is projected to stay stable at a low level,
as persistent challenges that plagued the
market in 2024 are expected to continue in
2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe EO demand expected to
lift slightly in January
European ethylene oxide (EO) 2025 discussions
largely centred around stable-to-soft
agreements, depending on starting point and
account, at the end of 2024, even as demand
is expected to increase in January.
OUTLOOK ’25: Demand stagnates, capacity
expands in Europe MPG, PO markets
Players in the European mono propylene glycol
(MPG) and upstream propylene oxide (PO)
markets expect familiar challenges, including
oversupply and weak demand, will persist well
into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe polyols and isocyanates
demand recovery handicapped by sluggish
downstream markets
The polyols and isocyanates market in Europe
is finishing 2024 with lethargic consumption,
with 2025 being held back by slow momentum
from major end user sectors.
OUTLOOK ’25: Slow start to 2025 expected in
Europe propylene glycol ethers market, no
significant supply concerns
A subdued start is anticipated in the
European market for propylene glycol ethers
in 2025. Price changes are expected to
continue to be led by availability
fluctuations with few anticipating much
demand recovery in the first half of the year
and potentially beyond.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe butyl glycol ethers
market set for lacklustre H1 2025, focus
remains on availability
The outlook for the European butyl glycol
(BG) and butyl di-glycol (BdG) market is
largely subdued heading into 2025. Despite a
spate of planned maintenances scheduled for
Q1, there is not significant supply concern
in the main.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe BPA market set to
navigate various challenges
The European bisphenol A (BPA) market is not
likely to face an easy ride in terms of
demand in 2025, with no sign of any recovery
in key end sectors, a few lost outlets
structurally and with competition from Asia
likely to remain strong.
OUTLOOK ’25: MA, PA demand weakness ongoing,
H1 supply outlooks differ but Asian reliance
growing
European maleic anhydride (MA) and phthalic
anhydride (PA) markets in Europe will face
similar supply-demand dynamics in 2025 to
those in 2024, with a challenging
macroeconomic environment expected to
continue crippling demand for most of the
year and complex supply scenarios with
difficult logistics continuing.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
melamine still in survival mode amid poor
demand, high production costs
European melamine suppliers remain pressured
by high production costs and low margins
heading into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe IPA
and MEK supply to remain ample despite import
constraints, capacity consolidation
The European isopropanol (IPA) and methyl
ethyl ketone (MEK) markets were defined by
muted consumption and ample availability for
most of 2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ECH
supply rather than demand under the spotlight
for 2025
Europe epichlorohydrin (ECH) supply rather
than demand is likely to be subject to more
change in 2025, in view of Westlake’s ECH
Pernis plant idling and possible adjusted
trade flows in response to various trade
defense cases and measures.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
fatty acids, alcohols to grapple with ongoing
high feedstock costs in H1
European oleochemicals face another
challenging year ahead, with squeezed fatty
alcohol supply and improved palm-based fatty
acids availability versus elevated feedstock
costs.
OUTLOOK ’25: EU epoxy
players on the cusp of a new normal, pending
EU AD decision
EU Epoxy market players are preparing for a
new normal in 2025 and shifts in sourcing
strategy, based on expected anti-dumping (AD)
duties on Chinese and other Asian product,
but the prospect of a recovery remains slim.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
paraffin wax market likely to see minimal
demand recovery
The forecast for European paraffin wax in
2025 is weak, particularly during the first
half. The market is expected to face ongoing
challenges like those experienced in 2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: EU ADD
leverage on Chinese TiO2 imports dimmed by
weak demand
The final EU anti-dumping measures on Chinese
TiO2 imports are unlikely to bring any
domestic support into 2025, despite
profitability struggles in the TiO2 industry,
as the underlying demand outlook remains
bleak.
OUTLOOK ’25: Poland’s
Azoty, Orlen face hard yards on journey back
to health
When in November Poland’s Grupa Azoty fairly
leapt at the chance to move into the
government-backed production of explosives,
it served as a further confirmation of the
deep hole Europe’s second largest fertilizer
maker finds itself in.
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