BP sees global energy demand, production rising through ’35

In its new outlook released on Wednesday, BP sees North America consumption growing 4% over the next two decades, with production expanding 21%. (Hans Blossey / imageBROKER/REX/Shutterstock)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Despite efficiency measures, world energy consumption will increase 1.3% annually between 2015 and 2035 due to global prosperity and population increases, according to BP’s energy outlook released on Wednesday.

The outlook outlines BP’s predictions on the most likely path for energy over the next 20 years based on political and technological changes. BP chief economist Spencer Dale presented the outlook highlights in a brief video.

In North America, energy consumption is expected to grow 4% between 2015 and 2035, and for production to grow 21% during the same period.

The outlook also predicts that natural gas will replace oil as the leading fuel in North America’s energy consumption around 2021, going from 32% of total consumption in 2017 to 39% by 2035. The report forecast North America would produce 30% of the world’s natural gas by 2035.

Dale noted that one main story in the outlook is the energy transition taking place primarily in Asian countries such as China. According to BP, China accounts for half of the demand growth for oil in the period to 2035.

The company still expects oil demand to grow at a rate of 0.7% per year thanks in part to the transportation sector, which will make up about 60% of oil consumption in 2035. However, Dale stated better fuel efficiency and electric vehicles (EVs) should slow the pace of that growth.

“One question we ask in the energy outlook is how quickly electric vehicles will penetrate the energy system,” Dale said.

Estimates for EVs currently on the road is 1m, with BP predicting 100m EVs in use by 2035. The increase will reduce growth in oil demand by a little over 1m bbl/day, Dale said, while fuel efficiencies in gasoline-powered vehicles will reduce demand growth by 16m bbl/day.  

“The implications for that [EV] demand aren’t a game changer,” Dale noted.

INSET IMAGE: BP chemicals plant in Grangemouth, Lothian, UK. (Environmental Images / Universal Images Group/REX/Shutterstock)