US EIA projects 28% increase in global energy use by 2040
Stefan Baumgarten
14-Sep-2017
HOUSTON (ICIS)–World energy consumption will grow by
28% between 2015 and 2040, the US Energy Information
Administration projects in its latest International Energy Outlook 2017 published
on Thursday.
Most of this growth is expected to come from countries that
are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD), and especially in countries where demand
is driven by strong economic growth, particularly in
Asia.
Non-OECD Asia – which includes China and India – accounts for
more than 60% of the world’s total increase in energy
consumption from 2015 through 2040, according to EIA’s
projections.
While EIA expects the non-fossil fuels, that is, renewables
and nuclear, to grow faster than fossil fuels, fossil fuels
will still account for more than three quarters of world
energy consumption through 2040, it said.
Natural gas, which has a lower carbon intensity than coal and
petroleum, is the fastest-growing fossil fuel in the EIA’s
outlook, with global natural gas consumption increasing by
1.4% per year.
The relatively high rate of natural gas consumption growth is
attributed to abundant natural gas resources and rising
production – including supplies of tight gas, shale gas and
coalbed methane.
Although liquid fuels – mostly petroleum-based – remain the
largest energy source, the liquids share of world marketed
energy consumption is projected to fall slightly, from 33% in
2015 to 31% in 2040, the EIA said.
As oil prices rise, energy consumers are expected to turn to
more energy-efficient technologies and switch away from
liquid fuels where possible, it added.
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