This analysis has originally been published in an extended version for ICIS EU carbon subscribers on 14 June at 09:34 CET.
During the night, the EU Council and the Parliament finally agreed on a 32% headline target for renewable energy in the trilogues. Negotiators failed to reach an agreement on energy efficiency.Main points 2030 RES target: 32% deal reached According to green MEP Claude Turmes, the deal includes “an upward review clause by 2023 at the latest” (see Euractiv article) Original positions of institutions were as followed: Commision proposal: binding 27% Council position: binding 27% Parliament position: binding 35% 2030 Energy efficiency target: Disagreement prevails, negotiations continue The EU Parliament was allegedly not willing to go below a 32.5% target In paralell, the Bulgaria Council Presidency was unsure about its mandate as Italy and Spain, which recently had new governments, were now backing higher targets Original positions of institutions were as followed: Commission proposal: binding 30% Council position: indicative 30% Parliament position: binding 35% Next step: According to our sources, there is a trilogue on governance of the Energy Union next Tuesday 19 June The Bulgarian Presidency could decide to include energy efficiency during that meeting but this is not yet confirmed Although MEP Turmes mentionned this Friday 15 June as a likely meeting on energy efficiency, the COREPER 1 meeting in question does not have energy efficiency on its agenda Analysis The 32% RES target deal is in line with our expectations of 32%-33% stated earlier The upward review clause by 2023 would allow for a potential increase of the target in the context of the global stocktaking for the Paris agreement With the 32% target deal reached, the two EU co-legislators settled on a target between their initial positions This probably suggests the Parliament had to give grounds on certain Council demands On energy efficiency, we believe it is likely negotiators will reach a deal potentially next week if a discussion on energy efficiency is confirmed for next Tuesday 19 June – this is the same say as the governance proposal trilogue In our opinion, the recent discussions suggest that a final compromise will include an EE target of either 32% or 33%, with uncertainty over whether the target will be binding or not
Yann Andreassen is Senior Analyst - EU Carbon & Power Markets at ICIS. He can be reached at Yann.Andreassen@icis.com
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