UK, GERMANY AND FRANCE: Electricity curve outlook and review

Source: Heren

2018/08/10

Fuels could lift UK, German and French curves in week 33

UK

UK far curve contracts are likely to follow the day-on-day movements at the British NBP gas market. UK power products have been deriving strength from the wider energy complex, which has been dictating the British gas market.

It is anticipated that Brent futures will lift next week and any bullishness with the fuel will impact NBP gas prices and ilter onto forward power products. As coal and oil are closely linked due to transportation costs, rising oil prices will lift the value of coal and this will be an additional driver to UK forward power products.

Germany

Fuels will continue to drive longer-dated products next week. Coal and gas will be among the main drivers but carbon is expected remain on an uptrend. One market participant suggested that the EUA carbon benchmark was on course to hit €20/tCO2e in the coming months. Further support may also come from the shorter-dated products which have been forced up relatively tight margins in Germany.

France

The Cal ’19 contract on the Rotterdam coal futures showed overall mixed movements session on session during week 32 apart from Monday when it jumped by $1.4/tonne, whilst the TTF Dutch gas front month contract slightly gained session on session.

The EUA December ’18 contract showed overall weak movements but was rising again to new highs on Friday. This could have a bullish impact on the French curve.

Review

UK front-quarter and front-season products were trading stronger week on week gaining momentum from fuel-led strength at the British NBP gas market. The UK Winter ’18 Baseload was assessed on 9 August at £63.40/MWh, more than £15.50/MWh higher than where the equivalent contract dealt last year.

The German front year Baseload struggled for a clear direction during the week with the product’s highest value assessed on Monday. Oil and coal were among the bullish fuels forcing the annual power contracts up that day while some bullish pressure was also drawn from a relatively firm German power prompt.

In France, far curve contracts followed bullish coal and gas prices on Monday, whilst the soft prompt drove the front month. The curve showed overall weak movements during the subsequent sessions in line with weak or counterbalancing fuel prices.