OUTLOOK ’19: US ACN market to remain short-to-balanced

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US acrylonitrile (ACN) market is expected to remain short-to-balanced in 2019 amid sustained supply constraints over the last couple years stemming from numerous production disruptions in the global market coupled with healthy demand.

Supply is expected to be snug-to-balanced owing to lingering constraints from 2018 and incremental increases in demand in 2019.

Although the global turnaround schedule is lighter for 2019 compared with 2018, Cornerstone Chemical Company will go on turnaround at its Fortier site in Louisiana for two to three weeks in the second half of March.

INEOS will not conduct a turnaround at its US plant in 2019, but lingering supply tightness following the company’s turnaround at its Seal Sands, UK plant in November and December as well as a planned turnaround at its German plant in May 2019 are expected to impact product availability in the US throughout the year.

Major supply issues are unlikely, however, given the relatively high utilisation rate and limited turnarounds slated in Asia.

2019 Asia ACN turnaround schedule

Company	Location	Capacity (tonnes/yr)	Comment
Asahi Kasei	Mizushima, Japan	200,000	May-early July, 45 days
Tongsuh Petrochemical	Ulsan, Korea	245,000 No 4	October, one month
China Petrochemical Development Corp (CPDC)	Kaohsiung, Taiwan	240,000	One week in May, two weeks in November
Taekwang Industrial Co Ltd	Ulsan, South Korea	290,000	September-October, 25 days
Formosa Plastics Corp	Mailiao, Taiwan	280,000	Mid-February, 25-26 days
PTT Asahi Chemical	Map Ta Phut,Thailand	200,000	Mid-May, one month

That said, while spot export availability is likely to improve, it will also remain snug, owing to increases in demand.

Demand in major downstream sectors such as acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and acrylic fibres (AF) is likely to grow in line with GDP growth and remain largely steady, while more niche markets such as carbon fibres and acrylamide are expected to see significant growth.

One producer expects demand for carbon fibres to grow by approximately 10% and demand for acrylamide to grow up to its capacity.

Although automotive manufacturing is expected to remain relatively stable in 2019, demand for nylon 6,6 is also expected to be strong amid severe shortages in the global market.

As a result, demand for contracted material will increase, in turn pushing contract adders higher.

Higher contract adders are necessary for producers to justify capacity expansions.

Cornerstone is hoping to have a final investment decision (FID) on a new acrylonitrile train by the end of 2019.

The location of the plant is to be determined but will be in the US.

Cornerstone’s only ACN plant is located in Fortier, Louisiana, and has a capacity of 240,000 tonnes/year.

US ACN plants

COMPANY	SITE	CAPACITY (000 tonnes)
Ascend Performance Materials	Chocolate Bayou, Texas	590
Cornerstone Chemical	Fortier, Louisiana	240
INEOS Nitriles	Green Lake, Texas	545
	Lima, Ohio	190

Ascend Performance Materials is undergoing a 10-15% expansion of its nylon 6,6 supply chain, including ACN, in order to support severe shortages and demand growth in the key downstream polyamide market.

Producers of US ACN include Ascend, Cornerstone and INEOS Nitriles.

Focus article by Lucas Hall

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