Asia Chemical Industry Outlook for 2019
ICIS Editorial
16-Jan-2019
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The following OUTLOOK ’18 stories were published by ICIS news between Friday 21 December 2018 and Thursday 10 January 2019. Please click on the headlines to read the full versions.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia naphtha to draw support from
stable petchem demand
Asia’s naphtha market is envisaged to draw
support from healthy regional demand for
petrochemical production, which might outpace
supply despite expectations of ample western
arbitrage cargo flows.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia BD may rise ahead of Lunar
New Year holidays
Asia butadiene (BD) prices may rise in January
ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays on
re-stocking although the price uptrend may
fizzle out unless US-China trade war tensions
ease or there is positive news during this
period.
OUTLOOK ’19: China BD under pressure; domestic
capacity to grow
China’s spot butadiene (BD) prices are likely
to face downward pressure in 2019 as domestic
capacity will increase by 10%, while downstream
demand is expected to stay weak.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia SBR stable to soft in Q1 amid
US-China trade war
Asia’s styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) prices
are likely to be stable or soft in the first
quarter of 2019 if tensions in the US-China
trade war failed to ease.
OUTLOOK ’19: China PO under pressure on long
supply, sluggish demand
China propylene oxide (PO) prices may stay
capped in 2019, unless demand from key
application polyols could pick up sufficiently
to absorb burgeoning supplies.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia styrene to hinge on demand,
deep-sea arb flow
Movements in Asia’s styrene market for the
first quarter of 2019 are likely to hinge on
the viability of deep-sea arbitrage flows from
exporters in the West and buying appetite from
several downstream sectors.
OUTLOOK ’19: China SM to find H1 support from
heavy Asia turnarounds
China’s styrene monomer (SM) domestic prices
are expected to be supported in the first half
of 2019, as supply is likely to be tight amid a
heavy plant turnaround schedule in Asia
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia BDO seen weak in Q1; Chinese
output cuts to cushion PBT declines
Asia spot prices of 1,4-butanediol (BDO) and
its downstream polybutylene terephthalate (PBT)
are expected to continue their downward trend
in the first quarter of 2019, and the prospects
for recovery are seen weak for the rest of the
year.
OUTLOOK’ 19: SE Asia PE market faces further
downward pressure on oversupply
Southeast Asia polyethylene (PE) market is
likely to face some downward pressure in 2019
on oversupply as demand could not catch up with
the large capacity additions.
OUTLOOK ’19: SE Asia PP to be weighed down by
new start-ups
Polypropylene (PP) spot prices in southeast
Asia may continue to be suppressed moving into
the first quarter of 2019 as the market
continues to grapple with fresh supplies and
tepid downstream demand amid global trade
tensions.
OUTLOOK ’19: China PP market to rebound on
China-US truce, but see pressure in
Q1
The outlook for China polypropylene (PP) prices
is somewhat pessimistic, with expectations of
oversupply but weak demand in early 2019.
OUTLOOK ’19: Middle Eastern PE markets to see
further clarity in Q1
The first quarter of 2019 is likely to lend
greater clarity to polyethylene (PE) demand and
prices in the Middle East, given that
uncertainty and pessimism persist going into
the end of 2018.
OUTLOOK ’19: Middle Eastern PP markets look to
China for direction
Polypropylene (PP) markets in the Middle East
will look to China for a clearer price
direction in Q1 2019 as they grapple with a
lacklustre macroeconomic environment.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia MMA markets may tumble on
ample supply, weak confidence in Q1
Asia’s methyl methacrylate (MMA) spot markets
could tumble on the back of ample supply and
sluggish buying momentum in the first quarter
of 2019, industry players said.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia ACN prices to follow cost
trend on new supply, less turnarounds
Asia’s acrylonitrile (ACN) price trend may take
a cue from feedstock propylene in 2019 as ACN
plants are expected to run in full throttle
given a lower rate of turnarounds next year,
and Chinese and South Korean supply is expected
to increase as such.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia’s benzene to continue
struggling with long supply
A long supply scenario aptly describes the Asia
benzene market in 2018, a situation unlikely to
change in 2019.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia LAB market mixed in the near
term on uncertain upstream
The Asia/Middle East linear alkylbenzene (LAB)
market is likely to be mixed in the near term
on uncertain upstream crude and benzene values.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia’s toluene poised for higher
spot liquidity amid volatility
Asia toluene is poised for increased spot
trading liquidity and cargo availability, be it
free-on-board (FOB) Korea basis or
cost-and-freight (CFR) China, though demand in
the downstream benzene market is seen slightly
weaker in the first quarter.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia ethanolamines may stay soft
on weak upstream, slow Q1 demand
Asia’s ethanolamines markets may be weighed
down by weak upstream ethylene and ethylene
oxide (EO) values, as well as slow demand in
the first quarter of 2019.
OUTLOOK ‘19: Asia IX demand seen robust on new
downstream PX capacity
Asia’s isomer-grade xylenes (IX) market
sentiment is likely to stay positive in the
coming months on increased demand from the
planned startups of downstream capacities in
the region.
OUTLOOK’19: China NBA to remain bearish in Q1
on weak fundamentals
Prices of n-butyl alcohol (NBA) in China may
face limited upward momentum against an
imbalanced supply-demand picture in the first
quarter of 2019, following a significant
turbulence this year.
OUTLOOK’19: China MX prices seen bullish in
second-half 2019
China’s mixed xylene (MX) prices will remain
bearish in the first half of 2019 given rising
supply and stagnant downstream demand.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia etac to fluctuate with
feedstock after hitting one-year low
Asia spot etac prices are likely to track
feedstock prices in the first quarter of 2019
as the overall market structure is one of
balanced-to-long supply over largely stable but
slow demand.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia’s BG continues to face ample
supply, weak Chinese demand
Butyl glycol spot prices in Asia may continue a
trend of decline going into the first quarter
of 2019, as the market would be inundated with
Middle East flows and growing exports from
other Asian producers.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia ADA market may stay soft in
Q1 2019 on increasing capacity
Asia’s adipic acid (ADA) market may remain weak
in the first quarter of 2019, as the outlook is
expected to be dulled by the twin combination
of new plant capacities in China and a paucity
of healthy demand.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia’s PET sees supply-demand
balance, market calmness
Asia’s polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market
is expecting to be balanced in supply and
demand next year, and margins are likely to be
within range following a tumultuous 2018.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia BPA markets set for limited
fluctuations
Asia bisphenol A (BPA) markets are poised to
see limited fluctuations amid expectations of
demand to stabilise at best in early 2019.
OUTLOOK ’19: China BPA seen balanced until new
plant capacities creep in
China’s bisphenol (A) market is likely to be
balanced to soft in 2019, following a
roller-coaster 2018, as the first half of the
new year may face a supply shortfall until new
plants start up in the latter half.
OUTLOOK ’19: Indian fiscal issues to persist in
H1 2019, cap polyolefin demand
The Indian polyolefin market is likely to
remain afflicted by tight fiscal liquidity that
presently persists in the country, and a
recovery, if any, is poised to be seen only in
the second half of the year.
OUTLOOK ’19: China PE market expected to stay
at a high level in H1
China polyethylene (PE) prices were expected to
stand at a comparatively high level in the
first half of 2019 due to slowed capacity
expansion.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia solvents demand may pick up
on restocking activities
Asia’s isopropanol (IPA) and methyl ethyl
ketone (MEK) may see a light at the end of the
tunnel, with a demand recovery foreseeable in
the earlier part of 2019 and that could set the
trend of a balanced market for the year amidst
a steady flow of supply.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia phenol H1 sentiment seen
sluggish on plant restarts
The sentiment in the Asian phenol market is
expected to be sluggish in the first half of
2019, weighed by ample supply following the
restarts at China-based plants from
maintenance.
OUTLOOK ‘19: China acetone supply glut to ease
in 2019 on demand growth
The oversupply in China’s acetone market is
expected to mitigate in 2019 as the start-ups
of some downstream expansion projects may
significantly bolster demand.
OUTLOOK’19: Phenol supply to remain tight on
strong demand, ADD duties
China’s phenol supply is expected to remain
tight in 2019 on downstream capacity expansions
along with the release of preliminary and final
results of the country’s anti-dumping duty
(ADD) investigations.
OUTLOOK ’19: Weak demand for epoxy resins to
weigh on China ECH prices
China’s epichlorohydrin (ECH) prices are likely
to face downward pressure from weak downstream
epoxy resins demand in 2019 even as domestic
ECH supply remains tight.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia PMMA may extend losses on
poor demand, high stocks in Q1
Asia’s polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) import
markets may extend losses due to dwindling
demand and high inventories in the first
quarter of 2019.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia’s caprolactum sees burgeoning
supply on high runs
Asia’s caprolactam prices are expected to see
more weakness in 2019, pressured by rising
supply amid high runs and upcoming plant
expansions in China.
OUTLOOK ’19: China ACN prices to fluctuate in
2019 on ample supply
China’s acrylonitrile (ACN) market may face
challenges in 2019, given the anticipated ample
supply, weak downstream demand and slowing
global economic growth.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia’s MTBE may face a supply
deluge from new plants
Asia’s methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) is
likely to face a supply glut in 2019, owing to
the onset of new plants while sluggish demand
would prevail.
OUTLOOK ’19: China MTBE to be clouded by
oversupply woes, biofuel promotion
Severe supply overhang following two new unit
start-ups, and the nationwide promotion of
ethanol gasoline may dampen the 2019 outlook of
China’s methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE)
market.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia ethylene balance likely to
lengthen in 2019
Asia ethylene is expected to be more ample in
2019, on the back of fewer cracker turnarounds
in Japan, regional capacity expansions and
possible downstream output cuts.
OUTLOOK ’19: Some support expected for C3 in Q1
on restocking activities
Spot propylene prices in the first quarter 2019
could see some support in the run up to the
Lunar New Year in early February after ending
2018 on a dismal note.
OUTLOOK ’19: China’s Q1 propylene prices to
firm on PDH maintenance fever
China’s domestic propylene markets are expected
to see firmer prices, as the supply pool
tightens owing to a peak turnaround season for
propane dehydrogenation (PDH) in the first
quarter of 2019.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia’s polystyrene to be driven
by feedstock volatility
Asia’s polystyrene (PS) prices shall take
strong cues from volatility in upstream
feedstock styrene monomer (SM), as margins
are a main driving force for liquidity in the
regional markets.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia PVC likely to be
stable-to-firm in Q1
Sustained demand in India for polyvinyl
chloride (PVC) and increased safety concerns
in China are likely to lend support to firmer
prices in the first quarter of 2019.
OUTLOOK ’19: India PVC demand to recover in
Q1 on agricultural pipes
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand in India is
expected to improve in early 2019 in view of
the peak season for pipe laying in the
region.
OUTLOOK ’19: Ample supply in Asia may weigh
on caustic soda going into Q1
Downward pressure on caustic soda prices in
Asia is likely to remain in the first quarter
of 2019 due to ample supply from northeast
Asia.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia TiO2 market faces a bearish
start to the year on weak Chinese
demand
Asia’s titanium dioxide (TiO2) market looks
set to start the year on a bearish note for
the first time in two years on weak demand
from China and volatile global trade
conditions.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia’s chemical shipping faces
uncertainties amid trade war
Asia’s chemical freight market is facing an
uncertain outlook in the first quarter, as
the ongoing US-China trade war continues to
weigh on overall petrochemical demand.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia TDI softening on stable
demand outpaced by supply
Toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) prices in Asia
are expected to be soft as weak demand is
expected to continue in the early months of
2019.
OUTLOOK ’19: Mideast soft TDI demand, new
supply to weigh on prices
Toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) prices in the
Middle East are expected to be soft as weak
demand is expected to continue in the early
months of 2019.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia, Middle East PMDI to remain
under pressure
It has been yet another tumultuous 2018 for
the isocyanates in the Asia and the Middle
East and 2019 is likely to see further
volatility with prices expected to remain
under pressure at the start of the new year.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia ABS, SAN demand seen weak
despite US-China trade truce
Import demand for
acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and
styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) resins in the key
China market is expected to remain tepid in
2019, despite the temporary truce achieved in
the US-China trade war in early December.
Outlook ’19: Asia’s nylon prices to stay soft
on weak demand, rising supply
Asia’s nylon prices are to stay soft in the
first quarter, as demand is expected to stay
weak while supply is seen increasing further
in the year owing to feedstock plant
expansions in China.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia’s acetic acid poised for
more balance amidst uncertainties
Asia’s acetic acid spot prices may experience
comparatively reduced volatility in 2019
because of a more balanced market, although
lingering uncertainties on the macroeconomic
front will continue to cloud the sentiment of
suppliers.
OUTLOOK’19: China acetic acid to continue its
fluctuation
China’s acetic acid prices are likely to
widely fluctuate and see saw in 2019,
following the turbulent trend from last year
as a result of erratic supply and demand
dynamics.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia fatty alcohols may see
support from supply tightness
Asia’s fatty alcohols prices may continue to
receive upward support from supply tightness
in 2019 as a result of some shutdowns in
Asia.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia fatty acids to continue
tracking palm oil movements
Spot prices of fatty acids in Asia will
continue tracking feedstock palm oil prices
closely in 2019 as they did in 2018.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia FAE could gain steam in Q1
on some upstream rebounds
Fatty alcohol ethoxylates (FAE) import
markets in Asia could gain steam on some
upstream rebounds and steady demand in the
first quarter of 2019.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia PX supply to lengthen on
new capacities
Supply of paraxylene (PX) in Asia should
gradually lengthen as a result of PX capacity
expansion growth,driven by two large
production units coming on stream in the key
China market this year.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia base oils to remain
sluggish on oversupply, falling
crude
Asia’s spot import prices for Group II low
viscosity 150N as well as high viscosity
500/600N base oils are expected to come under
further pressure in the first quarter of 2019
as a result of long supply.
OUTLOOK ’19: China’s base oils demand to
remain weak; imports to fall
further
China’s demand for base oils is expected to
decline further in 2019 after falling in 2018
because of a slowing economy while the
imports are also likely to fall this year,
largely because of start-ups of new domestic
capacities.
OUTLOOK ’19: Middle East Group I base oils
hoping for better demand
The Middle East base oils market has been
struggling with weak demand, supply overhangs
and prolonged uncertainty over the last few
months but there is hope conditions will
improve in 2019.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia PTA supply balanced to
tight amid growing demand
Asia’s purified terephthalic acid (PTA)
supply is likely to remain largely balanced
to tight in 2019 as a result of limited
capacity expansion, while demand is expected
to continue growing.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia MEG under pressure from
China economic slowdown
Asia’s monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices are
expected to be weighed down in the first half
by an economic slowdown in key China market,
along with slower growth in downstream
polyester sectors.
OUTLOOK ’19: China MEG market to face
pressure on more supply
Supply pressure may build up in China’s
monoethylene glycol (MEG) market in 2019 due
to a sharp increase in domestic supply and
the start-up at a number of major overseas
plants.
OUTLOOK ’19: China DEG prices to remain
bearish on rising supply
China’s diethylene glycol (DEG) prices are
likely to remain bearish in 2019 in the face
of rising supply, but the downtrend may be
limited as it is approaching three-year lows.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia oxo-alcohols to enjoy some
support in Q1
Spot prices for oxo-alcohols in Asia could
enjoy some support in the first quarter of
the year on restocking ahead of the Lunar New
year in the first week of February.
OUTLOOK ’19: Southeast Asia MA to track
feedstock butane market
Southeast Asia’s maleic anhydride (MA) market
is expected to track price movements of
feedstock butane, as demand is likely to stay
tepid.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia’s methanol sentiment
bearish on new capacities
Asia methanol market is poised to see new
capacities adding to the global pool of
supply that may not allow prices to rebound
to high levels seen in 2018.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia’s soda ash prices to stay
supported despite Turkish supply
The perennial year end soda ash price spikes
in Asia due to tightened supply from China
may prevail albeit at a moderated manner as
new supply from Turkey was insufficient to
meet demand.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia plasticizers spot prices to
be supported in Q1
Asia spot prices for plasticizers could some
see support in the first quarter of 2019 on
restocking ahead of the Lunar New year in the
first week of February, and slight thaw in
trade tensions between the US and key Asian
market of China.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia’s VAM to thrive on European
demand, plant shutdowns
Asia’s vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) prices in
the first quarter may be underpinned on
expectations of demand from Europe and a
supply curtailment owing to regional plant
shutdowns.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia-Pacific ethanol market to
remain under pressure
The Asia-Pacific market for fuel-grade
ethanol and b-grade ethanol is expected to
remain depressed in the early months of 2019
as demand has shown little signs of
improving.
OUTLOOK ’19: China MMA ample supply to keep
pressure on prices
China’s methyl methacrylate (MMA) supply will
increase in 2019 on the back of new plant
capacity while demand is expected to remain
soft to stable that may keep pressure on
prices.
OUTLOOK ‘19: China’s acrylic acid
profitability to hinge broadly on downstream
demand
China’s acrylic acid market will see new
capacities coming onstream in 2019, with the
total of such new volumes rising by more than
a fifth, underscoring the country’s growing
supply share in the global market.
OUTLOOK ‘19: Asia’s acetone sentiment soft in
first half 2019 on supply deluge
Asia’s acetone market is likely to remain
weak in the first half of 2019 as a result of
supply deluge while demand may not see any
improvement.
OUTLOOK ’19: Asia’s polycarbonate may see
limited upsurge potential
Asia’s polycarbonate (PC) prices are expected
to take on a soft trend in the first quarter
at least, with ample supply expected to keep
a lid on any potential upsurge, market
sources said.
OUTLOOK ’19: China benzene rebound to be
capped by uncertainties
China’s benzene prices are expected to
rebound this year as demand will outpace
output growth, but gains will be likely
capped by uncertainties in the upstream crude
market amid weakening macroeconomic
fundamentals.
OUTLOOK ’19: Uncertain crude, policies to
curb China’s mixed aromatics import
market
China’s mixed aromatics import market is
likely to come under pressure in 2019 from
uncertainties in the crude futures, stricter
invoice supervision and environmental
measures as well as the boom in domestic
reformer start-ups.
OUTLOOK ’19: China gasoline, gasoil market to
face pressure on new capacity
Severe oversupply may weigh on China’s
gasoline and gasoil prices in 2019, despite
export quotas of refined oil products are
expected to increase further in the year.
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