INTERACTIVE: How the next EU elections will shape parliament majorities

LONDON (ICIS)–The European Parliament elections on 23-26 May are likely to redesign the balance of power in Strasbourg more deeply than in the past.

The most recent seat projections published by the parliament on Thursday point to a net loss of 37 seats for both the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D) group, which combined held a 28-seat majority in the assembly in the five-year legislature started in 2014.

The right-wing Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF) seems set to come out of the ballots as the largest net-gainer, up 25 seats from 2014.

However, the centrist Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) are likely to make the most progress in political terms.

The group is polling eight seats higher than five years ago. This number could be boosted by the 21 seats that France’s The Republic on the Move party, led by President Emmanuel Macron, should rack up in May – although Macron’s party has not declared its EU party allegiance yet and could end up not picking any.

Yet, even without the extra seats from France, ALDE’s 76 seats could prove vital for any EU policies to pass in the parliament. An alliance between the two largest parties, EPP and S&D, would fall 47 seats short of an overall majority.

With regard to EU energy policies, EPP, S&D and ALDE have all voted in favour of the directives and regulations forming the Clean Energy Package, such as the 2030 renewable-production and energy-efficiency targets, new rules governing electricity cross-border capacity availability or the reform of the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER).

The Greens were also supportive, but their seats tally might shrink by six to 46 – one short of the 47 needed by EPP and S&D for a majority.

The centre-right European Conservatives and Reformists, which should shrink 10 seats to 66, supported some measures of the Clean Energy Package such as the reform of ACER, but opposed others such as the energy-efficiency targets.

The left-wing European United Left-Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL), which should grow five seats to 57, was largely against the package.

The geography of the 2019-2024 parliament will change once the UK leaves the EU, with total seats reducing from 751 to 705.

According to the latest polls, the UK’s departure would penalise the S&D and the Eurosceptic Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy groups the most.