TFI ’19: Phosphates in limbo on Mexican stand-off between India DAP buyers, China producers

LONDON (ICIS)–Limited demand and lacklustre business weigh heavily on the phosphates market this week.

• Chinese domestic DAP prices drop ahead of Golden Week
• India and Pakistan DAP import demand picks up as prices decrease
• Brazil MAP market subdued due to end of season

As the market prepares for the traditionally slow Q4, some business in the Indian subcontinent has pushed diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices down.

In India, all eyes are on the NFL DAP import tender which is expected to offer some price direction to the market.

However, price offers so far have been at low levels from China and it remains unclear whether the tender will be awarded and at what level, as Chinese producers are keeping their offers firm and look reluctant to accept lower offers.

At the moment DAP buying demand in India is hand-to-mouth as there is enough product in the market and buyers are waiting to take advantage of lower prices.

Meanwhile, in Pakistan buyers have returned to the market in full force, as a few Moroccan and Chinese DAP cargoes have been agreed and more are in discussion.

A trader said that “nothing beats phosphates currently. The market is trying to understand how low can this go.”

In China, DAP prices remain under pressure, as producers are starting to focus on the domestic market. Domestic prices are also falling ahead of the Golden Week holiday (1-7 October).

Chinese inventories are heard decreasing fast and Chinese producers will be reluctant to sell below $315/tonne FOB.

West of Suez, the US market is subdued ahead of the Fertilizer Institute (TFI) conference in Chicago next week.

The Tampa DAP price remains unchanged due to a lack of export business from Mosaic. In the domestic market, DAP barge prices have increased on limited business at higher levels.

There is talk of September demand before the Upper Mississippi river navigation closure in mid October, but prices are expected to be higher for prompt delivery.

The navigation closure of the river is expected to be brought forward this year, but no official announcement has been released.

In Brazil, the monoammonium phosphate (MAP) market is slow this week, as it out of season. Demand is expected to pick up towards the end of the year for next season.

On the supply side, most producers are discussing October business. PhosAgro is shipping to the domestic and regional markets.

The TFI conference runs from 23-25 September in Chicago.

Focus article by Sylvia Traganida

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