But weather forecasts predicting lower
chances of an extensive cold spell, combined
with ample LNG and higher storage withdrawals
should cap energy price gains over the coming
2 January 18:00
Russian gas supplies shipped
to Europe via Ukraine
plummeted in the first two
days of 2020, lifting hub
prices and prompting central
European countries to ramp up
storage withdrawals and
off-takes from Norway to
compensate for the sharp
Russian exports to Slovakia
dropped nine-fold from an
average 162million cubic
December to 17mcm/day on 1
January, while volumes on the
dropped from an average
41mcm/day in December 2019 to
6.8mcm/day on 1 January.
2 January 17:40
The new Ukrainian transit deal
may keep bearish pressure on European
natural gas prices in the coming months,
which could increase Winter ‘20 premiums
to Summer ‘20 at markets including the
Austrian VTP and Italian PSV.
Market participants polled by ICIS on
Thursday said that the new transit
agreement will provide larger stability
on the supply side but storage fullness
will be another key driver for prices in
31 December 09:44
Ukraine and Russian officially
signed the new transit agreement that will
cover a minimum of 65 billion cubic metres
(bcm) per year in 2020 and 40bcm/year between
27 December 16:47
Ukraine's new TSO has been
certified ahead in time for the 1 January
2020 deadline, with transmission tariffs on
most border points also set.
27 December 14:00
Turkish gas companies are expecting to off-take
Russian volumes from a
new delivery point from January 2020,
as volumes will be diverted from the
Trans-Balkan line to the new TurkStream
23 December, 16:50
An updated story with full details on the
transit agreement protocol and what it will
mean for both Ukraine and Russia is available
23 December, 16:16
Ukraine transit deal pressures gas
curve as uncertainty moves to Nord Stream
European natural gas prices for 2020 delivery
fell on Monday 23 December after an agreement
was signed for the future transit of Russian
gas to Europe via Ukraine.
The Dutch TTF Q1 ‘20 contract opened 5% below
the close on Friday 20 December, with January
‘20 down by 4%, according to trades submitted
“Nord Stream 2 is the issue now,” one trader
said, adding that delays would lead to a
premium on the Summer ’20 contract, cutting its
spread to Q1 ’20.
POWER MARKET REACTION
European power markets closely tracked gas
prices in December as speculation intensified
over the transit negotiations.
By 12:00 London time on 23 December the German
power January ’20 baseload had shed 5% from the
previous close, with the same French product
With gas-for-power generation ramping up across
Europe in 2019, power traders have increasingly
looked to gas markets for pricing signals.
23 December, 12:02
Ukraine, Russia sign gas transit, legal
Ukraine and Russia
signed on Friday a protocol for the transit of
gas to Europe from 1 January 2020.
As expected, the document covers the key issues
of transit over the upcoming five years as well
as the settlement of outstanding Gazprom debt
to the Ukrainian incumbent Naftogaz and the
cancellation of its ongoing multi-billion
dollar legal claims.
It also includes a controversial arrangement
where Gazprom would sign the transit agreement
with Naftogaz, which would in turn sign an
interconnection agreement with the new
transmission system operator of Ukraine.
Naftogaz is also expected to book capacities on
behalf of Gazprom and take on any transit
Under the document officially published on 21
December, Russia’s Gazprom will transit 65
billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas for the first
year of the transit in 2020. The volumes will
then be reduced to 40bcm/year between
2021-2024. The parties can renew the contract
for another 10 years from 2025.
The volumes will be only half of what Russia
has been shipping via the Ukrainian system
under the existing 10-year contract which
expires at the end of this year.
An unofficial English translation of the
published by consultancy Tumbleweed Partners
20 December, 16:45
Ukrainian and Hungarian gas
interconnection deal signed
Hungarian gas transmission system operator FGSZ
and its Ukrainian counterpart Gas TSO announced
interconnection agreement at the Berehove
and Beregdaroc interconnection points on 20
The agreement will take effect from 1 January
2020, with “standard business rules” now
applying to the Berehove interconnection point,
which was previously unable to be used by other
market participants due to Russian Gazprom’s
long-term contract, according to a statement
from Gas TSO.
Source: Gas TSO
20 December, 10:55
Prices tumble after 'in principle'
Ukrainian gas transit deal reached
Ukraine and Russia have ‘in principle’
reached an agreement on all key elements
for the transit of gas via Ukraine from 2020
although, the European Commission
vice-president Maros Sefcovic said on Thursday.
However, a source close to discussions told
ICIS that no agreement had been signed yet and
that negotiations were ongoing.
Speaking briefly after nearly nine hours of
negotiations in Berlin, the EU mediator said
the deal was still to be discussed in Kyiv and
Moscow on Friday.
The news late on 19 December saw a lot of risk
premium drain from contracts for delivery in
the first quarter of 2020.
On 19 December the TTF Q1 ’20 closed at
€15.025/MWh and opened the session the next day
trading at €13.95/MWh.
The product had moved up slightly to €14.05/MWh
by 10:00 London time, just under a euro lower
than the previous close.
The TTF January ’19 contract started trading at
€13.750/MWh on the morning of 20 December,
after closing at €14.975/MWh the day before.
By 10:00 the Dutch front month was had risen
slightly to €14/MWh, which was still below the
18 December, 17:13
'Close to zero' chance of gas transit
deal - Naftogaz CEO
The Dutch TTF January ’20 contract spiked this
afternoon after the CEO of Ukrainian state gas
company Naftogaz said the probability of
agreeing a new transit deal with Russia’s
Gazprom before the end of the year
was “close to zero”.
Transit jitters drive
TTF front-month spike
“It seems to me that now we can say that the
probability of the signing of the transit
contract by the 1 January is very close to
zero, very small,” Andriy Kobolyev said.
“It’s continuously approximating towards zero
with every minute.”
18 December, 14:57
Transgaz agrees to release
Gas TSO of Ukraine and Romanian system operator
signed an interconnection agreement to
offer capacity on the Trans-Balkan pipeline to
the market from 1 January 2020.
In the new year shippers will be able to access
17.8 million cubic metres (mcm) per day from
Ukraine to Romania via the Isaccea 1-Orlovka
Access to 15.8mcm/day for flows in the opposite
direction will be made available from the same
This will allow shippers to move volumes north
into Ukraine and Moldova via countries like
Turkey and Greece.
17 December, 17:11
TTPC offers emergency Algeria-to-Italy
gas capacity until March 2020
LONDON (ICIS)--The Availability of additional
export capacity to Italy on the Trans-Tunisian
reduce the risk of price spikes and increase
Italy’s security of supply in the first
quarter of 2020, Italian gas traders told ICIS.
According a statement released by the Trans
Tunisian Pipeline Company (TTPC) on 16
December, shippers who hold transport capacity
on the Trans Tunisian pipeline will be able to
book additional capacity in the event of a
“system critical situation” and for the
duration of the same.
This would be triggered for the Alert or
Emergency Levels of the emergency plan for the
Italian natural gas system issued by the
Italian Ministry of Economic Development.
The TTPC is an onshore pipeline that crosses
Tunisia owned by Italian energy major ENI and
is the main route for Algerian pipeline
deliveries to Italy.
The announcement made by the TTPC on 16
December came as uncertainty surrounds the
renewal of the Russia –Ukraine transit deal for
the upcoming year –a key supply route to Italy.
The arrangements are made available to shippers
from 16 December until further notice or at the
latest by 31 March 2020, TTPC said.
16 December, 14:49
Trans-Balkan gas capacity sold through
On 16 December the Hungarian Regional Booking
sold all 169GWh/hour of capacity offered
for use in January 2020 on the Negru Voda
1-Kardam point on the Trans-Balkan pipeline,
which allows shippers to move natural gas
between Bulgaria and Romania.
This may have been an indication that gas from
the TurkStream pipeline may be shipped to
southeast Europe in reverse along the
Trans-Balkan line in January next year.
13 December, 17:34
Ukraine may extend capacity booking
deadline for Russian transit
Russia’s Gazprom may have until 31 December to
book capacity for the transit of Russian gas
via Ukraine after the deadline is set to be
extended, Yuriy Vitrenko, executive director of
Naftogaz confirmed to ICIS on Friday.
Under a resolution by the Ukrainian regulator
NERC published on 14 November 2019, the Russian
producer was expected to book annual capacity
of up to 14 years by Friday, 13 December,
However, following another round of talks in
Vienna on Friday, Naftogaz, the Ukrainian gas
grid operator and Gazprom agreed to continue
Earlier reports by the Russian wires on Friday
had suggested that a preliminary agreement may
have been reached.
A Gazprom statement published later in the day
appeared to reject the claims, merely stating
that the parties had discussed cooperation in
the gas sector from 2020.
Nevertheless, the reports led to frantic
selling on European markets around 15:00 London
time, when the TTF Q1 ’20 price dropped by
around €0.50/MWh in less than 20 minutes to
deal below €14.00/MWh.