TRUCKING: April volumes edge lower as US market remains weak from tariffs, soft economy

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US trucking activity edged lower in April as the industry has yet to experience a recovery as it deals with tariff uncertainty and softening economic indicators, according to the American Trucking Associations (ATA) seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index.

The index fell by 0.3% in April after contracting by 1.5% in March, as shown in the following chart.

Source: American Trucking Associations

ATA chief economist Bob Costello said the index has fallen for two consecutive months after surging in February to its highest since May 2024.

“Unfortunately, a recovery that was expected this year hasn’t transpired as the industry deals with a freight market in flux from tariffs and softening economic indicators,” Costello said.

The not seasonally adjusted index, which calculates raw changes in tonnage hauled, equaled 112.0 in April, 2.2% below March’s reading of 114.6.

Both indices are dominated by contract freight, as opposed to traditional spot market freight.

RATES EDGE HIGHER ON ROADCHECK WEEK
Broker-posted spot rates in the FTR Transportation Intelligence Truckstop system for dry van and refrigerated equipment soared during the week ended 16 May (week 19) due to the annual International Roadcheck roadside inspection event, which was held 13-15 May.

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index reading for March improved to a positive 0.28 reading from -0.21 in February, as shown in the following chart.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said more volatility is expected in the near term.

“After a strong first quarter in freight volume – at least partially due to a pull-forward of imports in advance of tariffs – we expect more volatility in the months ahead as shippers respond to US trade policy shifts,” Vise said.

“The recent short-term agreement between the US and China greatly reduces the potential near-term hit to freight volumes, but we still expect uncertainty and higher costs for consumers to be drags on the economy and freight,” Vise said.

WHITE HOUSE ORDER COULD REDUCE DRIVERS
Vise said a wild card that market participants are watching is whether renewed scrutiny concerning truck drivers’ English language skills and non-domicile commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) will affect the driver supply significantly.

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order recently aimed at, “ensuring anyone behind the wheel of a commercial vehicle is properly qualified and proficient in English”.

ATA Senior Vice President of Regulatory & Safety Policy Dan Horvath said the executive order responds to its concerns on the uneven application of this existing regulation and looks forward to working with regulators on an enforcement standard.

A distributor in the US chemical markets said it has not seen any disruptions in its trucking operations and suggested enforcement could be difficult.

Trump’s order reversed a 2016 policy that said commercial vehicle drivers should not be placed out-of-service for English language proficiency (ELP) violations.

The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA), a nonprofit organization comprised of local, state, provincial, territorial and federal commercial motor vehicle safety officials and industry representatives, issued updated guidance this week that ELP violations will be out-of-service offenses again beginning 25 June.