Philippines economy to contract 2.0-3.4% in 2020 amid pandemic

Pearl Bantillo


SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Philippine economy is expected to contract by 2.0-3.4% this year, reversing a 6.0% growth in 2019, as the economic toll from the coronavirus pandemic could be as high as peso (Ps) 2.0tr ($40bn).

The cost of the pandemic on the southeast Asian economy is expected to be about 9.4% of 2020 GDP.

A strong recovery is projected for 2021, with the GDP growth rate seen bouncing back to 7.1-8.1%.

Exports this year are expected to fall 4.0%, alongside imports, which are projected to decline a steeper 5.5% amid a pandemic-induced global recession.

For 2021-2022, exports and imports of goods are expected to rebound with growths of 5% and 8%, respectively.

Under the emerging fiscal program for 2020, the government’s budget deficit will hit Ps1.56tr or 8.1% of GDP, given lower revenues and increased spending amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Revenue collection was revised down to Ps2.61tr, which is 13.6% of GDP, while disbursements will grow to Ps4.18tr, equivalent to 21.7% of GDP.

“The emerging disbursement program takes into account the releases for COVID-19 [coronavirus disease] initiatives charged to savings coming from austerity measures, among others,” according to the Philippines’ Development Budget Coordination Committee DBCC).

As of 12 May, the southeast Asian country has 11,086 coronavirus cases with 726 deaths, according to data from the World Health Organisation (WHO).

The novel coronavirus outbreak is believed to have started late last year in China’s central city of Wuhan and has since spread globally. Global cases stand at more than 4m to date.

($1 = Ps50.29)

Visit the ICIS Coronavirus topic page for analysis of the impact on chemical markets and links to latest news.


ICIS Premium news service

The subscription platform provides access to our full range of breaking news and analysis

Contact us now to find out more

Speak with ICIS

Now, more than ever, dynamic insights are key to navigating complex, volatile commodity markets. Access to expert insights on the latest industry developments and tracking market changes are vital in making sustainable business decisions.

Want to learn about how we can work together to bring you actionable insight and support your business decisions?

Need Help?

Need Help?