VIDEO: European Gas Outlook: Week 31

LONDON (ICIS)–Market reporter Jake Stones provides an overview of the key price drivers for European gas markets over the next seven days:

• Ending of the Nord Stream outage will bring roughly 160mcm/day of supply back online into Germany, pressuring the prompt on the Dutch TTF and Germany resumes exports of H-gas to the Netherlands. Storage injections will also likely rise alongside the increased supply.
• On the British NBP the prompt will be pressured by increased wind generation, that will rise to 4.2GW across week 31, up from 3.6GW in week 30. Also pressuring the prompt is the fact that LNG stocks are relatively high at 65% full.
• European LNG supply outlook for the gas summer remains weak, with 20-30 cargoes cancelled for September from the US. This could lend support to the August and September ’20 contracts in week 31. The Asian premium over European markets could also divert further US and Arab Gulf cargoes into the Eastern Pacific region and away from European shores.
• Further ahead, the ICIS East Asia Index (EAX) October ’20 contract was assessed on Friday at $3/MMBtu, $0.78/MMBtu above the corresponding NPB contract.