VIDEO: European Gas Outlook: Week 38

Author: Jake Stones

2020/09/15

LONDON (ICIS)--Market reporter Jake Stones provides an overview of the key price drivers for European gas markets over the next seven days:

  • Cameron LNG may not be able to load until mid-October now following continued issues after Hurricane Laura, meanwhile Sabine Pass loaded its first cargo on 9 September. The difference between the two is that Sabine Pass can generate power on site, whereas Cameron cannot. This is something to be aware of for the future hurricane season.
  • Fluctuations in carbon markets with the approaching European Commission emissions reductions targets could play into near-curve gas contracts. A leaked document on Monday suggested the target would rise to 55%, pushing carbon markets up 7% across the session. Early trading on Tuesday shows a slight retracement.
  • In the Netherlands, support to the Dutch TTF prompt could come from an unplanned outage at the Hammerfest LNG plant. Operations are now disrupted until 23 September, potentially impacting 2 loadings. Further support to the TTF prompt could come from reduced supply via the BBL pipeline, with maintenance running until 17 September.
  • In Britain, fluctuations in wind outturn could support and weigh on the prompt as the week matures. Winds are expected to rise on Wednesday, however unplanned outages to Norwegian fields and reduced LNG arrivals could balance this.