VIDEO: European power winter outlook

Author: ICIS Editorial

2020/11/20

LONDON (ICIS)— The ICIS Power team presents the key drivers for the remainder of winter in the main electricity markets in Europe.

(All graphs in the video are linked below)

Germany

  • Multi-year low prices for the German power December '20 and Q1 '21
  • Lockdown restrictions easing in December
  • But further lockdown restrictions are likely
  • Volatility in the carbon and gas markets is set to keep uncertainty in the near-curve contracts

France

  • French power December '20 and Q1 '21 also priced at record lows
  • Nuclear availability set to be slightly above the 2015-2019 average in December
  • French hydro stocks continue at multi-years highs
  • Potential nuclear issues keep risk premium in Q1 ‘21

UK

  • Strong gas supply margins in the coming months.
  • US LNG feed gas at record levels
  • Asian LNG premiums waning, according to ICIS LNG team
  • Demand downside risk due to lockdowns

ICIS carbon forecasts for this winter

Italy

  • Coronavirus-related demand drop to be marginal if industrial sites remain open
  • Gas oversupply - key bearish factor
  • Healthy hydro stocks to keep cap on power prices

Spain

  • Renewables could continue increasing their share of the Spanish power mix year on year in December and the first quarter of 2021
  • Spain imposes new coronavirus restrictions, prolonging demand uncertainty
  • Both factors are likely to have bearish impact on near-curve power prices

CCGT share of the Spanish power mix

SEE/CEE Region

  • Hungarian Q1 ’21 drops below the front year in November
  • Regional demand expected to remain capped
  • Hydro stocks in key Balkan markets at multi-year highs,

Hungarian spot under-delivering in 2020