US will return to ’19 energy consumption levels by ’29 – EIA

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US energy consumption should return to 2019 levels by 2029, the nation’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

The forecast is part of the EIA’s annual energy outlook, which it will release in full later in the day.

“It will take a while for the energy sector to get to its new normal,” said Stephen Nalley, acting administrator for the EIA.

“The pandemic triggered a historic energy demand shock that led to lower greenhouse gas emissions, decreases in energy production and sometimes volatile commodity prices in 2020,” Nalley said. “The pace of economic recovery, advances in technology, changes in trade flows and energy incentives will determine how the US produces and consumes energy in the future.”

The EIA’s energy forecast depends on the speed of economic growth, as shown in the following table.

Source: EIA

Electricity demand should return to 2019 levels by 2025, the group said.

Renewable electricity will account for nearly 60% of capacity additions from 2020-2050. By 2050, the share of renewable energy in the power generation mix will more than double.

Natural gas will maintain its share at 36%, the EIA said. Coal and nuclear will fall by half.

Energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) will continue falling through 2035, the EIA said.

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