VIDEO: European power outlook for Q3 2021

LONDON (ICIS)— The ICIS Power team presents the key drivers for Q3 ’21 in the main electricity markets in Europe.

(All graphs in the video are linked below)

Germany

• Tight summer supply could lead to some gas to coal switching
• Gas prices have risen at higher rate than other energy commodities
• German gas storage fullness is currently at multi year lows
• German power Q3 contract could deliver at multi year highs

UK

• UK average demand set to be higher year on year
• High fuel prices are likely to keep power propped up, especially in less windy periods
• UK storage fullness to date well below previous years

France

• Nuclear availability for Q3 still well-above 2016-2020 average
• Changes to nuclear schedule still possible
• French Baseload Q3 contract is at a discount to the Netherlands and only minimal premium to Germany, suggesting low nuclear supply risk
• Hydro stocks are in line with previous year’s average

Italy

• Bullish PSV gas to offer support to power prices
• Low hydro stocks to boost gas for power demand
• Demand recovery likely

CEE/SEE

• Healthy Balkan hydro stocks to keep cap on prices
• Temelin and Paks nuclear maintenance – key
• Start date of new Slovak Mochovce nuclear unit still unknown
• 4M markets and Poland to couple with Germany and Austria on 17 June

Spain

• Demand boost expected from tourism sector
• Gas-fired generation to ramp up
• Solar capacity growth key for summer supply
• Spain’s Q3 ’21 contract makes strong gains