May WASDE projects increase in corn area and yield, lowers outlook for soybeans

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is projecting an increase in corn area and yield which would result in record supplies with lower soybean production forecast, according to the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report.

The current corn crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6% year on year on increases to both area and yield.

Planted area of 95.3 million acres if realized would be the highest in over a decade.

The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather.

The smaller beginning stocks will partially be offsetting the increase in production, but total corn supplies are forecast at 17.3 billion bushels.

Corn used for ethanol is unchanged relative to a year ago at 5.5 billion bushels, based on expectations of essentially flat motor gasoline consumption and exports.

Feed and residual use is projected higher to 5.9 billion bushels on larger supplies and lower expected prices.

US corn exports for 2025-2026 are forecast up from a year ago to 2.7 billion bushels, with lower prices driving a forecast increase in world trade.

Exports for competitor countries such as Argentina and Ukraine are higher than a year ago. The US is projected to be the world’s largest exporter, with fractional decline in global market share.

Ending stocks are being calculated higher at 385 million bushels, with total corn supply rising more than use, and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2019-2020.

The season-average farm price is projected at $4.20 per bushel, down 15 cents from the April update.

For soybeans, the outlook shows slightly lower supplies, higher crush, reduced exports and lower ending stocks.

The soybean crop is projected lower at 4.34 billion bushels based on trend yield and lower area.

Soybean supplies are down less than 1% as there was higher beginning stocks but that is facing lower imports and production.

The USDA noted that higher beginning stocks and rising soybean production in South America have lifted exportable supply, and despite higher global demand, the US share of global exports is now expected to be at 26%, down from the 28% level a year ago.

The May WASDE calculates that soybean exports will be 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million bushels, and soybean ending stocks are projected at 295 million bushels, a decrease of 55 million bushels.

The season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.25 per bushel, compared with $9.95 per bushel in 2024-2025.

The next WASDE report will be released on 12 June.