Summary of mid-year Asia OUTLOOK stories
ICIS Editorial
09-Aug-2021
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the mid-year Asia OUTLOOK stories which ran on ICIS news throughout July.
Click on a headline to read the full story.
OUTLOOK: Asia naphtha poised for rosy demand
support in H2
Asia’s naphtha demand will be buoyed in the
second half by greater downstream capacity,
with new crackers starting up in South Korea,
while sustained curbs in refinery output will
keep supply in check.
OUTLOOK: Asia spot TIO2 may slow down in H2
2021 but uncertainties
remain
After witnessing spot prices climb unabated
since late August 2020, some buyers are hoping
that the second half of 2021 could finally
provide some respite.
OUTLOOK: Asia oxo-alcohols, plasticizers demand
to stay lacklustre in H2
Asia’s oxo-alcohols and plasticizers markets
are expected to see muted demand in the second
half of 2021 even as the tight supply situation
eases.
OUTLOOK: China soda ash to draw support from
robust construction demand
Robust demand in downstream flat and solar
glass sector underpinned by China’s
urbanization strategy supports a buoyant
long-term outlook for the soda ash market.
OUTLOOK: Asia BG supply to recover in H2; weak
China demand to persist
Asia’s butyl glycol (BG) supply is expected to
see further recovery, with more plants
returning to normal operation in the second
half, while downstream demand in China will
likely remain sluggish due to cost pressure.
OUTLOOK: Asia H2 MEK market still in delicate
supply-demand balance
Asia’s methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market is
likely to remain in a delicately balanced
supply-demand situation in the second half of
the year.
OUTLOOK: Asia phenol sentiment in H2 ‘21 looks
positive on derivative
start-ups
Asia phenol sentiment in H2 2021 is cautiously
optimistic on the back of derivative expansion
lined up across the region.
OUTLOOK: Asia’s fatty acids slowdown in Q3 to
be offset by EU and US
reopening
Asia’s fatty acids market may see demand
slowing down in the third quarter amid renewed
lockdown restrictions, but the reopening of the
EU and US economies may help offset the
economic fallout from the coronavirus
resurgence.
OUTLOOK: Asia ethanolamines market watchful
amid resurgence of
coronavirus
A cautious mood is likely to stay in Asia’s
ethanolamines market in the near term, as
market players seek clarity from downstream
sectors on consumption levels on the back of
the resurgence of the coronavirus in many parts
of the region.
OUTLOOK: Asia’s petchem markets hit by ample
supply, rise in Delta variant
cases
The outlook for many Asian chemical markets is
geared towards ample supply amid rising cases
of the COVID-19 delta variant, which has
prompted emergency responses in the region.
OUTLOOK: Asia MX to see uncertain demand in H2
’21, supply snug
Tight supply of mixed xylenes (MX) in Asia is
likely to extend into third quarter, but demand
faces more uncertainties as downstream market
faces restructure.
OUTLOOK: Asia’s glycerine market to slow on
upstream volatility and virus
resurgence
Asia’s glycerine market is likely to slow in
the near term due to upstream crude palm oil
and soybean oil volatility and economic fallout
from the coronavirus resurgence.
OUTLOOK: Asia EVA braces for ample supply,
dwindling demand in H2
New capacity in China and downbeat demand
projection in the key downstream photovoltaic
(PV) sector may continue to weigh on Asia’s
ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) market in the
second half of 2021.
OUTLOOK: Veil of uncertainty hangs in Asia’s
IPA market; near term likely
weak
Projections for Asia’s isopropanol (IPA) market
are expected to be weak in the near term on
abundant supply at importers and slow
downstream consumption.
OUTLOOK: Asia PBT reverses losing streak on
feedstock rebound, demand
uptick
The Asian polybutylene terephthalate (PBT)
market reversed its losing streak in July after
several months of decline, with some
participants projecting higher numbers in the
quarter.
OUTLOOK: Asia BDO recovers from slump; renewed
demand to continue into H2
Asia’s butanediol (BDO) market began an upward
shift in July as buying momentum gathered pace,
effectively halting its price downtrend in
June.
OUTLOOK: Pandemic dampens Asia toluene demand;
eyes on downstream
Asia’s import toluene markets saw supply and
demand fundamentals varying across the regions,
amid a mix of factors such as the COVID-19
pandemic in certain regions, downstream margins
as well as freight rates.
OUTLOOK: Weak demand to dictate Asia MTBE
market in H2 ’21
In the first half of 2021, Asia’s methyl
tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) market showed a
general uptrend, tracking firmer international
crude oil futures and gasoline prices in the
region.
OUTLOOK: Lacklustre Asia synthetic rubbers
demand may temper upstream
support
Asian import trades for various synthetic
rubber materials, including styrene butadiene
rubber (SBR), polybutadiene rubber (PBR), and
acrylonitrile butadiene rubber (NBR), have
gained ground, as sellers hike offers to recoup
costs and margins.
OUTLOOK: Asia benzene maintains high ground on
snug supply, decent demand
Asia’s benzene prices remained elevated with
spread against feedstock naphtha staying wide,
with snug prompt supply and decent demand in
the region look set to continue in the near
term.
OUTLOOK: Asia ethyl acetate braces for Q3
demand slowdown
Asia ethyl acetate (etac) markets are bracing
for headwinds as demand slumps on the back of
resurging coronavirus infections including the
Delta variant.
OUTLOOK: China VAM turnarounds limited in H2;
demand in seasonal lull
Ethylene (C2)-based vinyl acetate monomer (VAM)
plant turnarounds in China are fewer in the
second half while demand is in a seasonal lull
in July to August.
OUTLOOK: Asia VAM faces ample supply, downbeat
demand outlook in H2
Asia’s vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) market will
continue to face ample supply, lower upstream
acetic acid values, depressed derivatives
pricing and a downbeat demand outlook in the
second half.
OUTLOOK: Asia fatty alcohols supply to fall on
tightened COVID-19 curbs
Asia’s fatty alcohols market is likely to see
decreasing supply in the near term following
tightened lockdown restrictions to contain the
resurgent virus infections in the region.
OUTLOOK: Mideast isocyanates supply tightens in
H2 as oil, feedstock gain
Supply of toluene diisocyanate (TDI) and
polymeric methylene diisocyanate (PMDI) to the
Middle East is showing some signs of tightening
in the second half as upstream oil and
feedstock prices strengthen.
OUTLOOK: China PP faces strong capacity growth,
better demand in H2
China’s polypropylene (PP) supply is expected
to grow in the second half as new capacities
are due to come on stream, with some demand
projected to improve.
OUTLOOK: Asia LAB market braces for possible
rebalancing; tug-of-war
ongoing
Asia’s linear alkylbenzene (LAB) market is
bracing itself for a possible rebalancing as
signs of waning demand become more apparent in
a “still snug” market.
OUTLOOK: Asian MDI, TDI markets exit Q2 slump;
near-term outlook unclear
Asia isocyanates markets are poised to see
improved sentiment in the near term after
snapping out of a persistent downtrend in the
second quarter, though lacklustre demand in the
southeast Asian market could dampen market
confidence.
OUTLOOK: Asian PX market continues to face
uncertainty in H2 2021
An uncertain paraxylene (PX) market in Asia is
likely to continue heading into the second half
of the year, with balance largely dependent on
the run rates at major PX producers in China,
amid an unclear upstream outlook.
OUTLOOK: China USD PO volatility to persist on
supply gains amid new start-ups in
H2
China’s US dollar-denominated propylene oxide
(PO) sector is poised to observe an increase in
local cargo availability going forward into the
second half of the year on planned start-ups,
barring unforeseen circumstances.
OUTLOOK: SE Asia ethanol H2 demand varies with
grades; limited supply to
persist
Southeast Asia’s import demand for fuel ethanol
may remain weak while its consumption of
hydrous B-grade material is expected to be
steady, amid limited supply in the second half
of the year.
OUTLOOK: Balanced-to-long fundamentals to weigh
on China’s PTA margins
Balanced-to-long market fundamentals are
expected to further squeeze China’s purified
terephthalic acid (PTA) margins in the second
half of 2021, when exports may get stalled.
OUTLOOK: Asia Group I/II base oils H2 supply to
recover faster than Group III, demand to be
curbed
Asia’s overall Group I supply shortage is
expected to gradually ease in the second half
of the year, although supply of brightstock
grade may remain relatively tight in Q3.
OUTLOOK: Asia PET to track upstream pricing,
supply and demand uneven
The Asia polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
market is likely to track upstream price
movements amid uneven distribution of supply
and demand and shipping challenges.
OUTLOOK: Asia’s acetic acid market mixed as
weak derivatives offset H2 supply
concerns
Asia’s acetic acid market outlook in the second
half of 2021 was mixed as suppliers’ cautiously
firm sentiment on supply concerns was offset by
downbeat derivatives performance.
OUTLOOK : Asian butadiene supply to stay snug
on arbitrage pull unless startups
materialise
Asian butadiene import prices are at a
multi-year high , as regional supplies were
drained by heavy exports in H1 2021 to north
America.
OUTLOOK: Cautious demand, Chinese supply
expectations to outline Asia PS H2
2021
Cautious demand expectations among market
participants will likely be the key driver and
outline of Asia’s polystyrene (PS) outlooks for
the rest of 2021, as supply fundamentals are
set to rise in domestic China.
OUTLOOK: Asia PC to see support from upstream
amid weak demand
Asian polycarbonate (PC) markets are likely to
find support from upstream bisphenol A (BPA)
markets in the second half of 2021, while weak
demand is likely to persist.
OUTLOOK: Asia BPA to be buttressed by snug
supply despite weak
Asian bisphenol A (BPA) spot markets are likely
to be supported in the second half of the year
by upcoming turnarounds despite weak
performances in downstream sectors.
OUTLOOK: Asia ABS demand to improve from
mid-August
Asia’s acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS)
demand is likely to stay weak until mid-August,
when feedstock procurement for the major
downstream household appliance sector typically
kicks off in earnest.
OUTLOOK: Continued supply constraints to keep Asian EPDM trades Continued supply constraints have propelled Asian ethylene propylene diene-monomer (EPDM) spot trades to eight-year highs in H1 2021, and will continue to exert upside pressures for the rest of year, even if resurging pandemic conditions weigh on demand.
OUTLOOK: Recent record Indian methanol prices
hint at falling COVID-19
influence
Indian methanol spot prices ended the week of
23 July on a multi-year high of $399/tonne CFR
(cost & freight) WC (west coast) India,
narrowly eclipsing the previous 2021 high of
$395/tonne CFR WC India on 5 March. Prior to
this, similar price levels were last seen in
November 2018.
OUTLOOK: Asian PTA faces mounting challenges,
high freights, weak
fundamentals
The Asian purified terephthalic acid (PTA)
market is expected to continue to struggle with
challenges, amid high container freight costs,
growing supply within China, and the
coronavirus pandemic.
OUTLOOK: China BPA tightness to sustain in H2
’21 despite expansions
Despite capacity expansions in the second half
of 2021, China’s bisphenol A (BPA) market is
still expected to see supply tightness on
occasions, due to anticipated increases in
downstream capacities, as well as plant
turnarounds both domestically and globally.
OUTLOOK: China acetic acid tight supply eases;
H2 market seen balanced
China’s acetic acid supply-demand fundamentals
will be more balanced in the second half, due
to a combination of capacity additions, delayed
turnarounds and some improvement in demand.
OUTLOOK: China acetone H2 supply stays ample,
demand growth uncertain
China’s acetone supply may remain ample in the
second half of 2021 amid limited planned
turnarounds and fewer exports.
OUTLOOK: China acrylic acid supply to remain
tight in short term
China’s domestic acrylic acid supply has
tightened so far in 2021 amid delayed plant
restarts as well as planned and unplanned plant
shutdowns, and this may persist in the near
term.
OUTLOOK: Asia caustic soda demand may be
supported in H2 2021 despite
headwinds
Consumption for liquid caustic soda in Asia
could be supported in the second half of 2021,
despite recently slashed regional economic
forecasts by the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) due to the recent wave of Delta
coronavirus infections.
OUTLOOK: SE Asia PVC demand clouded by recent
coronavirus surge; producers look to other
markets
Asia’s polyvinyl chloride (PVC) spot market may
see mixed recovery in the near term, as
southeast Asian demand could be capped amid the
recent wave of coronavirus infections, while
demand from India is expected to pick up.
OUTLOOK: Middle East base oils supply to
increase gradually amid stable
demand
Middle East base oils supply is expected to
gradually improve through the second half of
the year but with little change in current
demand fundamentals expected.
OUTLOOK: China NBA/2-EH to remain short on unit
turnarounds, firm demand
China’s domestic n-butanol (NBA)/2-ethylhexanol
(2-EH) market was tightly supplied in the first
half of 2021, and this may persist for a long
term due to plant turnarounds and firm
downstream demand amid strong exports.
OUTLOOK: Asian acrylic acid and acrylates to
remain supported in H2 2021
Asian acrylic acid (AA) and acrylate esters
prices have fluctuated at firm levels after the
surge in March due to global supply disruption
and may remain supported in H2 2021 on
feedstocks and global supply constraints.
OUTLOOK: Asia PP market hit by pandemic,
lengthening supply another
concern
Asia’s polypropylene (PP) market will be
reeling from the effects of a near-term
COVID-19 resurgence in southeast Asia, while
increasing production capacities may increase
bearish sentiment in H2.
OUTLOOK: Asia acetone H2 outlook shadowed by
price plunge; supply ample
Asia’s acetone market in the second half of the
year is likely to see uncertainty due to the
recent price plunge starting in May, though
supply will remain ample, unlike the first half
when several plants underwent turnarounds.
OUTLOOK: Impact of rising Chinese SM supply
mitigated by turnarounds; demand
wildcard
The impact of rising Chinese styrene monomer
(SM) supply will likely to be mitigated by
turnarounds in other Asian regions until the
last quarter of 2021, but demand could be the
wildcard in this equation.
OUTLOOK: GCC’s PE, PP players eye demand
recovery; pandemic weighs on
sentiment
Polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP)
markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
have had a mixed run in H1 2021 but players
gear up for a more promising rest of the year
with hopes of a recovery in demand to
pre-pandemic levels.
OUTLOOK: Asia OX supply balanced to tight, spot
demand curbed
Asian orthoxylene (OX) supply is expected to
stay balanced to slightly snug in the second
half of the year, amid planned maintenance
shutdowns and weak production margins.
OUTLOOK: Asia ACN H2 supply to increase on new
China capacity
Asia’s acrylonitrile (ACN) supply in the second
half is expected to increase amid new capacity
coming on stream in China.
OUTLOOK: Asia ADA sentiment cautious amid
pandemic
The Asian adipic acid (ADA) markets have faced
firm prices of feedstock benzene and declining
demand amid slower-than-usual performance in
the downstream sectors.
OUTLOOK: Asia nylon and capro recovery
uncertain on atypical
conditions
The Asian nylon and caprolactam (capro) markets
have been stable for a large part of Q2, with
limited market movements amid lacklustre
downstream demand.
OUTLOOK: China toluene market in H2 may see
ample supply, uncertain
demand
China toluene market might face, in the second
half of the year, a slight weakening in demand
while supply is expected to be robust on the
back of new capacities and in the absence of
any planned turnarounds.
OUTLOOK: China MEG supply to grow on new
capacity; demand to improve
China’s monoethylene glycol (MEG) supply is
expected to grow alongside demand, with
downstream polyester consumption traditionally
peaking in the third quarter.
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