Summary of mid-year Europe OUTLOOK stories
ICIS Editorial
09-Aug-2021
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are the mid-year Europe OUTLOOK stories which ran on ICIS news throughout July.
Click on a headline to read the full story.
Strong demand, disrupted
supply to keep European AA tight
Tight supply in the European acrylic acid is
expected to persist in the second half of this
year.
A
challenging H2 expected for European acrylate
esters
The second half of 2021 is expected to be just
as challenging in the acrylate ester markets as
the first half.
Europe ABS supply
shortage until at least Q4, ongoing pressures
across H2
The supply shortage in the European
acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) market is
expected to continue across H2 2021, as ongoing
pressures are likely to prevent any relief to
the difficult market situation, including
production issues in the supply chain, low
imports, and strong demand.
Europe ACN tight supply
to persist as demand stays strong
European acrylonitrile (ACN) demand is expected
to remain healthy to year-end while the ongoing
snug local supply situation, coupled with a
reliance on imports, is set to persist.
Europe’s auto sector
gripped by supply chain woes
Growth in the automotive sector looks set to be
stunted over the second half of 2021, as
clogged supply chains prevent the industry from
meeting demand.
Europe benzene market
faces shifting trade winds
The European benzene market has become more
regionally focused this year as spiking
logistics costs and shipping delays have
changed arbitrage economics, factors that
threaten further supply chain disruption in the
second half of 2021.
Europe biodiesel
feedstock concerns linger despite demand
revival
The European biodiesel market is set for signs
of shortages to persist for the remainder of
the year while demand recovers in a steady
manner.
Europe BPA supply easing
possible in H2 of year, but bumpy ride
likely
Europe bisphenol-A (BPA) supply could ease in
Q3 with derivative turnarounds, related product
shortages and higher import arrivals. Despite
this trend, robust demand outlook and
persistent global logistics crisis could cap
the supply recovery in the second half of the
year.
Europe butadiene bullish
on US supply woes
Demand for European butadiene (BD) is expected
to remain strong through the remainder of 2021
and certainly through the usually slower summer
period.
Europe Caustic soda
tight; new outages weigh on H2 2021
The European caustic soda market tightened in
the first half of 2021, and prices are likely
to remain firm in the second half.
Europe capro to stay
tight in the second half of this year
European caprolactam (capro) market could stay
tight in the second half (H2) of 2021, at least
during Q3, with the tightness possibly easing
in Q4, depending on whether ongoing technical
issues and problems with feedstock supply are
resolved.
Europe construction
strong on demand, supply constraints
Construction in Europe is set to rebound in the
rest of 2021 from the decline in 2020,
bolstered by financial support from the EU,
according to a report by analysts at Oxford
Economics published on Tuesday.
Europe CX market
optimistic on healthy dynamics
The European cyclohexane (CX) market is
expected to be sufficiently supplied in H2
2021, with consumption also positive.
European DEG demand to
remain solid, supply could ease in
August
European diethylene glycol (DEG) short-term
demand is expected to remain steady as spot
prices have been climbing higher since May
2021.
Europe ECH supply strain
could last until end Q4 on bullish demand,
logistics woes
Europe epichlorohydrin (ECH) supply tension is
likely to persist through Q3 and possibly for
the rest of the year despite the resolution of
some output issues, as ongoing strong demand
and import delays could impact stock recovery.
Europe epoxy supply could
ease in H2, disruption still possible
The prolonged supply crunch in the Europe epoxy
resins market is likely to gradually ease in
the second half of this year, if Asian imports
continue to rise and local plant reliability
improves, although certain factors could
disrupt this.
Europe ethanol to tighten
on surging demand as economies reopen
The European ethanol market is bracing itself
for potential signs of shortages, to be evident
by Q4, on the back of an improved demand
outlook.
European ethanolamines
demand boosted by pandemic
European ethanolamines demand will no doubt
continue to benefit from consumer trends coming
out of the COVID-19 pandemic in H2 2021 – as
long as hard lockdowns are avoided.
Europe EO demand to
remain healthy in Q3, supply eases after
turnarounds
European ethylene oxide (EO) supply is expected
to remain relaxed following a spate of
turnarounds, with solid demand set to continue.
Europe EPS supply
shortage until Q4, production issues amid
increasing demand
The supply shortage in the European expandable
polystyrene (EPS) market is expected to
continue until Q4, as ongoing production
issues, logistics issues and increasing demand
will likely pressure supply further.
Europe fatty acids
shortages to extend into H2 2021 and
beyond
European fatty acids availability is expected
to remain extremely limited through the third
and fourth quarters, with shortages expected to
last into 2022.
Europe glycerine
availability set to slowly improve through
Q3
European glycerine supply is likely to increase
through the third quarter, though planned
maintenance turnarounds may draw out tightness
until later into the quarter.
Europe glycol ethers
supply constraints set to ease
After a turbulent H1 (first half) with extreme
supply shortages, constraints in the European
ethylene-based glycol ethers market is expected
to ease over the remainder of 2021.
Europe Q3 IPA demand
improvement uncertain
The European isopropanol (IPA) market saw muted
demand in Q2, and while some improvement is
expected in H2, views remain mixed due to
lingering memories of pre-pandemic moroseness.
Europe isocyanates,
polyols battle back after COVID-19
In the long, light-filled evenings of summer,
it’s hard to think ahead to when it gets dark
and cold outside early. That’s when people
“make home cosy” – and may buy comfy mattresses
and snuggly furniture.
Europe LPG market to
remain firm into autumn on steady demand,
cautious refinery throughputs
The LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) market in
Europe has seen a robust recovery in
consumption and prices since Q2 of last year.
Participants can expect the market recovery to
continue into the latter half of 2021 as
broadly firm fundamentals persist.
Europe MA fundamentals to
remain firm until Q2 2022
Maleic anhydride (MA) demand in Europe is
expected to be steady until the end of the year
at the very least, with some longer-term views
now projecting a strong Q1 2022.
European melamine demand
to outstrip supply in Q3 as production
constraints continue
The European melamine market is experiencing
record high prices, extreme supply limitations
due to unplanned issues and higher than
expected demand.
Europe methanol shortages
to ease in H2, new capacity pending
Tightness in the European methanol market is
expected to ease in the second half (H2)
following domestic plant restarts and new
global capacity.
European MEG short-term
supply, demand expectations mixed
The European ethylene glycol (EG) market is
braced for a possible delay in imports from
Asia which could alter short-term expectations
about length developing in the third quarter.
Europe MEK demand healthy
and firm from second half
European MEK demand has spiked in April this
year and has since been receiving mixed
feedback.
Europe MIBK fundamentals
to soften on seasonality but pandemic to
tighten supply in Q4
European methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) prices
decreased by over 12% in July after demand
started falling in June, and increased supply
from overseas absorbed some of the remaining
buying momentum.
Shutdowns to shape
European MMA
The European methyl methacrylate (MMA) market
will face constrained supply for the second
half of 2021.
Europe MTBE set for
stable H2 demand recovery
The European methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE)
market is set for stable demand recovery for
the rest of the year as gasoline and octanes
consumption rebounds across key markets.
Europe MX supply to be
adequate to demand in H2
Supply of mixed xylene (MX) in Europe will be
adequate to meet demand, which has positive
signals in H2 2021.
Bullish fundamentals
define naphtha despite headwinds
Current fundamentals in the European naphtha
and gasoline markets are projected to continue
into the second half (H2) of this year as firm
demand will continue to confront tight supply.
Europe olefins optimistic
on demand, imports to make all the
difference
Back in December, European ethylene and
propylene players were optimistic for 2021,
having just experienced a fourth quarter like
no other and with the coronavirus vaccine
rollout underway.
Europe oxo-alcohols
market continues on path of gradual
improvement
The European oxo-alcohols market looks to
remain on a path of gradual improvement as
production levels in Q3 may outpace demand for
this first time in 2021.
European paraffin wax
market to likely remain tight for rest of 2021
and into 2022
Market norms that have dominated the European
paraffin wax market for over a decade have been
uprooted this year, with disruption to
availability expected to persist well into the
autumn months and 2022.
European phenol market
strong in 2H 2021, acetone will struggle to
keep up
The paths of the European phenol and acetone
markets are likely to continue to diverge in
the third quarter.
Europe steady PA
consumption from H1 highs, tightness to linger
in Q3
Phthalic anhydride (PA) players see no
stumbling blocks for demand in H2 while a
number of production issues, and a heavy season
of turnarounds in Q3 are likely to keep supply
tight during that period.
Europe POM demand to
remain beefy against tight supply
Supply of polyacetal (POM) in Europe is
expected to remain tight while demand stays
firm in the second half of 2021
Europe PBT supply
tightness to remain into H2
The supply outlook for polybutylene
terephthalate (PBT) in Europe is expected to
remain tight, mainly due to issues with raw
materials.
Europe PC tightness to
ease despite strong demand
European polycarbonate (PC) supply tightness is
expected to ease heading into Q4, but strong
demand is likely to persist.
Europe plasticizers to
continue easing away from peak
tightness
The European plasticizers market is set to ease
away from the extreme tightness seen in H1 with
dioctyl terephthalate (DOTP) to see the
sharpest improvement.
Europe PE, PP prices
remain high despite long-awaited
crash
European polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene
(PP) prices are still holding well and there
are not many signs of market player
expectations that a crash is on the way.
African PE/PP turbulent
in post pandemic world
The African polymer market is in a state of
transition as the region adjust to post
pandemic global trade conditions.
Turkey PE/PP recovery
crimped by poor economy
Turkish polymer players have experienced an
unprecedented first half of 2021. Prices first
rose to historic highs, leaving many converters
to consider shutting their plants.
Europe PET torn between
logistics mayhem and lockdowns easing
Gone are the days of predictable trends in the
European polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
market as it rides the choppy waters of
momentous global events.
Feedstock key for
European PMMA in second half
The European polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA)
market in the second half of this year will be
driven by the performance of its key raw
material.
Europe PS demand to stay
strong for construction and white goods in H2
2021, packaging to soften
Expectations are mixed for supply and demand
trends for the second half of the year in the
European polystyrene (PS) market.
Europe PVC tightness
likely to persist for rest of 2021
The outlook for European polyvinyl chloride
(PVC) remains uncertain for the second half of
2021.
Europe propylene glycol
ethers supply to improve on
feedstocks
European propylene glycol ethers spot prices
continue their downtrend for H2 on improved
supply conditions.
Europe PO set for slow
recovery in second half
The European propylene oxide (PO) market is
poised to observe a slight lengthening of
supply in the second half, as long as there are
no major disruptions.
Europe soda ash demand to
recover, energy costs key for 2022
As attention turns to towards 2022 contract
levels, a gradual market recovery, rising
energy costs and a European reopening will mean
contracts face increased upward pressure in the
autumn months when new annual prices are
traditionally agreed with end user customers.
Europe refinery solvents
market to remain firm into autumn on steady
demand, uneven supply
Coming off the back of a difficult 2020, the
European solvents market can be expected to
continue the steady recovery it has enjoyed
during the first half of this year.
Europe styrene demand
upbeat as supply chain disruptions
continue
The Europe market for styrene, a key ingredient
in plastic packaging, disposable cups and
insulation, is facing upbeat trends in
derivative markets in the coming months, after
a period of widespread supply chain disruption.
Europe TiO2 short supply
likely to normalise towards year end
The Europe titanium dioxide (TiO2) market
remains short and robust at least for Q3 and
the imbalance may intensify on feedstock
disruptions, if prolonged.
Europe toluene supply
will be adequate for improving demand in second
half
There will be healthy availability of toluene
in Europe to meet better consumption in H2.
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