Summary of mid-year Americas OUTLOOK stories
ICIS Editorial
09-Aug-2021
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the mid-year Americas OUTLOOK stories which ran on ICIS news throughout July.
Click on a headline to read the full story.
US
PET supply shortage to continue into second
half
The US virgin polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
market will likely continue to see supply
shortages along the production chain in the
second half of 2021.
Freight rates, pandemic
will shape Latin American PET market in
H2
Latin American polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
markets will continue to face freight rates
volatility and delivery delays while still
fighting a third wave of the pandemic in the
second half of the year.
Latin
American H2 PVC recovery likely to depend on US
production and pandemic eradication
Latin American polyvinyl chloride (PVC) markets
will continue to be disrupted by coronavirus
flare-ups that complicate individual domestic
markets and by production problems at US
chlor-alkali and vinyl plants.
US EG
unlikely to loosen before Q4
Restarted production has improved supply of US
ethylene glycol (EG), though order backlogs as
well as stocking ahead of planned maintenances
have sustained market tightness.
Latin
America caustic soda markets firm into
H2
Latin American caustic soda markets are firming
as the global tight supply situation has
contributed to fewer offers of offshore product
and more business among regional players.
US PX
consumption likely to remain muted in H2
despite packaging demand
US paraxylene (PX) consumption is likely to
remain muted through the end of 2021, despite
consistently strong demand for downstream
polyethylene terephthalate (PET).
Latin
America PE H2 demand limited by H1 inventory
buildup, low economic activity
Latin American polyethylene (PE) Q3 demand is
historically the strongest quarter of the year
but restocking by buyers in H1 led to increased
purchases earlier in the year and may limit Q3
volumes this year.
US
naphthenic base oil snug through H2
Global naphthenic base oil buyers can expect
availability issues through the year as US
producers struggle to meet demand.
Latin
America ethanol low demand to continue in H2,
producers focus on sugar
Latin America ethanol producers are expected to
remain focused on sugar production in H2 due to
stronger prices and demand.
Latin
America PP H2 demand limited by H1 inventory
buildup, low economic activity
Latin America polypropylene (PP) demand is
expected to be less strong in H2 for several
regional markets amid lower distributor sales
and slowing activity in major economies.
US
paraffinic base oils supply relief hopes fade
amid downstream shortages
US and Americas paraffinic base oil buyers can
expect difficulty sourcing oils through the end
of 2021, particularly Group III, with limited
supply relief on the horizon.
US PA
supply may loosen gradually through
H2
Supply of US phthalic anhydride (PA) has been
snug throughout 2021 but may loosen in the
second half of the year.
North
America polyurethanes pricing, margins could
remain elevated through H2
Pricing and producer margins throughout the
northern American polyurethanes industries
could remain elevated throughout the second
half of the year as the industry struggles to
bring supply and demand back into balance.
US MX
derivative, gasoline demand diverging going
into H2
US mixed xylenes (MX) applications into
gasoline look to prop up demand in the near
term, though waning derivative consumption and
rising benzene production might offset upward
pressure into H2.
US
methanol supplies could outpace demand in
H2
While US methanol supplies will get a boost in
H2 from the startup of a new plant, export
demand could take more time to have a similar
increase.
Shipping container rates
to remain elevated into 2022 as US demand
outpaces capacity
Shipping container rates have spiked by as much
as three or four times since the onset of the
pandemic and are likely to remain elevated
beyond the Lunar New Year in 2022 as the global
demand for goods continues to outpace available
capacity.
US
toluene to strengthen into H2 on firming
gasoline, downstream demand
US toluene looks to strengthen into H2 on firm
gasoline and downstream demand as the US
economic recovery continues.
US
HCl likely to remain weak for H2 ’21 on
coronavirus disruptions
The US hydrochloric acid (HCl) market got a
reminder of the volatility of oil markets and
their ties to acid demand as falling crude
values darkened oilfield demand outlook heading
into H2.
US
nylon likely tight through second half of
year
The US nylon market is likely to stay tight
through the rest of the year as it struggles
with various feedstock and additive shortages.
US
ABS still struggling with supply but demand may
soften
The US acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS)
market is expected to remain tight for the rest
of 2021 as it recovers from production outages,
depleted stocks, lack of imports and strong
demand.
Demand and logistics to
keep H2 US MMA firm
Volatility is expected to subside in H2 as US
methyl methacrylate (MMA) supply improves, but
strong demand and chaotic
logistics will keep the markets firm.
Bullish demand and
feedstocks to pressure H2 US MA
Although US maleic anhydride (MA) supply is
expected to improve in H2, strong demand and
high feedstock costs will pressure the markets.
US
benzene strengthens into H2 on firm upstream
markets, improving derivative demand
US benzene is strengthening in H2 on firm
upstream markets and improving derivative
production, as the country’s economic recovery
continues.
US PE
margins likely to remain elevated in
H2
Margins for US polyethylene (PE) producers are
likely to remain at elevated levels through the
second half of the year, buoyed by packaging
demand and favourable production economics for
US producers.
Latin
America PS prices firm January-May; lower
feedstock costs reverse trend in June
Latin America polystyrene (PS) prices firmed
through most of H1 and began easing from May
into June for several regional markets amid
lower feedstock costs. Q3 is historically the
strongest quarter of the year for demand, while
Q4 is normally weaker.
US PS
demand expected to remain firm through
H2
Demand for polystyrene (PS) in the US is
anticipated to remain firm over the second half
of the year and to finish 2021 with higher
consumption than 2020.
US
cumene production issues to tighten supply into
H2
Despite July contracts settling lower, ongoing
US cumene production constraints are expected
to tighten supplies going into H2.
Long-constrained US butac
supply will begin to loosen in Q3, Q4
After facing heavily constrained supply in the
aftermath of winter storm Uri and for
much of Q2, the US butyl acetate (butac) market
is showing signs of lengthening.
US
oxo-alcohol supply constraints predicted
through Q4 2021
In the first half of 2021, especially
following winter storm Uri, oxo-alcohols
were among the most constrained petrochemicals
in the US market, as even contract buyers
received less than contractual allocations.
Upstream issues to keep
US TiO2 supply snug-to-tight in H2
Titanium dioxide (TiO2) domestic contracts have
risen in the past two quarters due to tight
supply and recovering demand, including for Q3
contracts that settled on 23 July.
US H2
phenol to remain snug on bullish feedstocks,
demand
US H2 phenol supply is expected to remain snug
amid feedstock limitations and strong demand.
US
gasoline demand to remain at seasonally typical
levels through H2
US gasoline demand is expected to remain at
seasonally typical levels through the second
half of the year as the market has mostly
recovered from the lows seen in 2020 and early
2021.
Supply disruptions to
keep US etac limited through H2 amid healthy
demand
Supply disruptions for US etac stemming from
tight feedstock acetic acid supply are expected
to continue through the second half of 2021
amid stronger than usual demand.
US H2
acetone to stay balanced amid feedstock, demand
pressure
US H2 acetone is expected to stay balanced, but
players will monitor feedstock and demand
pressure.
Strong demand, sparse
feedstock supply to support US paraffin wax in
H2
Despite a recent lull in buying activity, US
paraffin wax is experiencing overall
strong demand and sparse feedstock base oil
supply heading into H2.
Elevated soybean oil
costs to continue to weigh on Americas
biodiesel markets
Elevated soybean oil (SBO) costs will continue
to pressure the Americas biodiesel markets
through the remainder of 2021 as the global
supply of soybeans remains tight.
US
acetic acid inventory rebuild to last through
H2
While significant supply relief has yet to take
place for the US acetic acid market, inventory
rebuild will be the focus for participants
throughout H2.
US
VAM H2 inventory improvement to be slow
process
While the supply situation continues to improve
for US vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), any
production issue or significant impact to the
supply chain could derail inventory rebuilds in
H2.
US
polycarbonate supply improving, but market will
remain tight
US polycarbonate (PC) supply will continue to
improve in the second half of 2021, but healthy
demand will keep the market tight in the short
term.
US
SBR remains tight in H2 on BD
constraints
US styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) markets are
expected to face butadiene (BD) feedstock
constraints through H2, which will limit
production.
US BD
shortages hamper supply chain through
H2
US butadiene (BD) supply is expected to remain
tight through the second half of 2021, and
users in the supply chain are planning for
insufficient feedstock into 2022.
US
styrene supply looks ample in 2H 2021
The US styrene market will look markedly
different in the second half of 2021 compared
with the first as major supply constraints have
eased.
US
PGP market to loosen gradually in H2, barring
supply disruptions
The US polymer-grade propylene (PGP) market is
expected to loosen gradually during the second
half of this year, barring any significant
supply disruptions.
US
EPS supply/demand balance to remain
tight
The tight supply/demand balance in US
expandable polystyrene (EPS) market will
continue at least through Q3 as construction
demand is strong and as producers try to
replenish inventory.
US
PVC supply recovery and production capacity
expansions
US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is expected to see
greater supply in the North America market as
production problems near resolution entering
the third quarter and new production capacity
expansions hover on the horizon for the last
half of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022.
US
caustic soda likely in tight supply for rest of
2021
It appears that US liquid caustic soda will go
through the second half of 2021 much the same
way it has the past year: with low production
rates and tightened supply.
US
EDC likely to remain preserved for internal PVC
for H2 2021
The record-setting demand for its downstream
derivative means that US ethylene dichloride
(EDC) will remain in tight supply for spot
export transactions through the second half of
2021 and probably into 2022.
US H2
epoxy resin supply to improve, but remain
pressured
US H2 epoxy resin supply is expected to
improve, but some pressure could persist due to
inventory and logistical issues.
US
BDO supply to remain tight through Q4
US butanediol (BDO) demand is expected to
continue to outstrip supply through the end of
2021.
US
acrylates to remain tight in H2 due to upstream
oxo-alcohols pressure
Supply of US acrylic acid and acrylate esters
has been limited for domestic buyers in the
first half of the year, particularly in the
aftermath of winter storm Uri.
US
soda ash to feel steady demand recovery during
H2 2021
US soda ash production, exports and apparent
consumption continue their recovery into the
second half of 2021.
Corn
prices to continue pressuring US ethanol
markets through H2
Elevated global corn prices are expected to
continue pressuring both the US fuel and
industrial ethanol markets through the
remainder of 2021.
US
jet fuel demand continues slow recovery through
H2
The US jet fuel market is expected to continue
its slow demand recovery through the second
half of 2021, although the market is not
expected to be back to normal demand levels for
several years.
US
MTBE demand likely to slip in typical H2
seasonality
US methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) is likely
to see a decline in demand in H2 as is typical
in the back half of the year when gasoline
consumption is seasonally slower.
Tight
US melamine supply to persist in Q3, may ease
nominally in Q4
US melamine supply is expected to remain
severely tight throughout most of Q3,
potentially easing only nominally in the final
three months of this year if logistics smooth
out and demand cools along with seasonal
temperatures .
US
aromatic and aliphatic solvents demand may see
H2 strength
The broadly upbeat outlook for US aromatic and
aliphatic solvents demand during the second
half of 2021 hinges on expected healthy fuels
demand from automobiles and airliners as
commuting to work and school, as well as
business travel, returns to some level of
normality.
US PP
to PGP spreads to remain elevated through
H2
Spreads between polypropylene (PP) prices and
polymer grade propylene (PGP) values are
expected to remain at elevated levels through
the second half of the year due to healthy
domestic demand.
US
ACN supply expected to catch up to demand in
H2
US acrylonitrile (ACN) supply is expected to
catch up to demand in H2, pending unplanned
supply chain disruptions in the coming months.
Persistent US MPG supply
woes may begin to ease in latter 2021
The supply constraints that have beset global
mono propylene glycol (MPG)
customers since H2 2020 will continue
to include and impinge on the US market well
into the second half of this year.
US
glycol ethers expected to remain tight, but
will lengthen by year’s end
US glycol ethers spot prices have risen in the
first half of the year because of reduced
availability following sales allocations for
contract buyers.
US
MEK market expects tepid demand, ample supply
in H2
The US methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market is
expected to continue to experience tepid demand
amid ample supply in the second half of 2021.
US
IPA market expects to face ongoing supply
length, soft demand in H2
The US isopropanol (IPA) market will face
ongoing supply length and soft demand in the
second half of 2021.
US
plasticizers will continue to be stymied by
logistics amid strong H2 demand
Hampered logistics and strong demand will
continue to dominate the US plasticizers
dioctyl terephthalate (DOTP), dioctyl phthalate
(DOP) and diisononyl phthalate (DINP) markets
during the second half of 2021.
US
ethylene demand could soften in H2 amid
downstream turnarounds, greater overseas
competition
The US ethylene market could face softening
demand late this year amid more comfortable
downstream inventory levels, derivative plant
turnarounds and less overseas dependence on US
monomer supply.
Greater US NGLs supply,
demand expected in H2 amid higher industry-wide
run rates
Both supply of and demand for US feedstocks in
H2 should be greater than in H1 amid fewer
disruptions throughout the supply chain.
US H2
fatty alcohols face further disruptions as
pandemic worsens in SE Asia
The US H2 fatty alcohols market faces the major
possibility of further supply chain disruptions
as the pandemic continues to worsen in
southeast Asia.
US H2
fatty acids face further disruptions as
pandemic worsens in SE Asia
The US fatty acids market in H2 faces the major
possibility of further supply chain disruptions
as demand continues to outpace supply against
the backdrop of worsening pandemic-related
restrictions in southeast Asia.
US H2
glycerine faces further disruptions amid low
biodiesel production as pandemic worsens in SE
Asia
US H2 glycerine markets face the major
possibility of further supply chain disruptions
amid unseasonably low domestic biodiesel
production against the backdrop of worsening
pandemic-related disruptions in southeast Asia.
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