Summary of mid-year Americas OUTLOOK stories

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the mid-year Americas OUTLOOK stories which ran on ICIS news throughout July.

Click on a headline to read the full story.

US PET supply shortage to continue into second half
The US virgin polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market will likely continue to see supply shortages along the production chain in the second half of 2021.

Freight rates, pandemic will shape Latin American PET market in H2
Latin American polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets will continue to face freight rates volatility and delivery delays while still fighting a third wave of the pandemic in the second half of the year.

Latin American H2 PVC recovery likely to depend on US production and pandemic eradication
Latin American polyvinyl chloride (PVC) markets will continue to be disrupted by coronavirus flare-ups that complicate individual domestic markets and by production problems at US chlor-alkali and vinyl plants.

US EG unlikely to loosen before Q4
Restarted production has improved supply of US ethylene glycol (EG), though order backlogs as well as stocking ahead of planned maintenances have sustained market tightness.

Latin America caustic soda markets firm into H2
Latin American caustic soda markets are firming as the global tight supply situation has contributed to fewer offers of offshore product and more business among regional players.

US PX consumption likely to remain muted in H2 despite packaging demand
US paraxylene (PX) consumption is likely to remain muted through the end of 2021, despite consistently strong demand for downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET).

Latin America PE H2 demand limited by H1 inventory buildup, low economic activity
Latin American polyethylene (PE) Q3 demand is historically the strongest quarter of the year but restocking by buyers in H1 led to increased purchases earlier in the year and may limit Q3 volumes this year.

US naphthenic base oil snug through H2
Global naphthenic base oil buyers can expect availability issues through the year as US producers struggle to meet demand.

Latin America ethanol low demand to continue in H2, producers focus on sugar
Latin America ethanol producers are expected to remain focused on sugar production in H2 due to stronger prices and demand.

Latin America PP H2 demand limited by H1 inventory buildup, low economic activity
Latin America polypropylene (PP) demand is expected to be less strong in H2 for several regional markets amid lower distributor sales and slowing activity in major economies.

US paraffinic base oils supply relief hopes fade amid downstream shortages
US and Americas paraffinic base oil buyers can expect difficulty sourcing oils through the end of 2021, particularly Group III, with limited supply relief on the horizon.

US PA supply may loosen gradually through H2
Supply of US phthalic anhydride (PA) has been snug throughout 2021 but may loosen in the second half of the year.

North America polyurethanes pricing, margins could remain elevated through H2
Pricing and producer margins throughout the northern American polyurethanes industries could remain elevated throughout the second half of the year as the industry struggles to bring supply and demand back into balance.

US MX derivative, gasoline demand diverging going into H2
US mixed xylenes (MX) applications into gasoline look to prop up demand in the near term, though waning derivative consumption and rising benzene production might offset upward pressure into H2.

US methanol supplies could outpace demand in H2
While US methanol supplies will get a boost in H2 from the startup of a new plant, export demand could take more time to have a similar increase.

Shipping container rates to remain elevated into 2022 as US demand outpaces capacity
Shipping container rates have spiked by as much as three or four times since the onset of the pandemic and are likely to remain elevated beyond the Lunar New Year in 2022 as the global demand for goods continues to outpace available capacity.

US toluene to strengthen into H2 on firming gasoline, downstream demand
US toluene looks to strengthen into H2 on firm gasoline and downstream demand as the US economic recovery continues.

US HCl likely to remain weak for H2 ’21 on coronavirus disruptions
The US hydrochloric acid (HCl) market got a reminder of the volatility of oil markets and their ties to acid demand as falling crude values darkened oilfield demand outlook heading into H2.

US nylon likely tight through second half of year
The US nylon market is likely to stay tight through the rest of the year as it struggles with various feedstock and additive shortages.

US ABS still struggling with supply but demand may soften
The US acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) market is expected to remain tight for the rest of 2021 as it recovers from production outages, depleted stocks, lack of imports and strong demand.

Demand and logistics to keep H2 US MMA firm
Volatility is expected to subside in H2 as US methyl methacrylate (MMA) supply improves, but strong demand and chaotic logistics will keep the markets firm.

Bullish demand and feedstocks to pressure H2 US MA
Although US maleic anhydride (MA) supply is expected to improve in H2, strong demand and high feedstock costs will pressure the markets.

US benzene strengthens into H2 on firm upstream markets, improving derivative demand
US benzene is strengthening in H2 on firm upstream markets and improving derivative production, as the country’s economic recovery continues.

US PE margins likely to remain elevated in H2
Margins for US polyethylene (PE) producers are likely to remain at elevated levels through the second half of the year, buoyed by packaging demand and favourable production economics for US producers.

Latin America PS prices firm January-May; lower feedstock costs reverse trend in June
Latin America polystyrene (PS) prices firmed through most of H1 and began easing from May into June for several regional markets amid lower feedstock costs. Q3 is historically the strongest quarter of the year for demand, while Q4 is normally weaker.

US PS demand expected to remain firm through H2
Demand for polystyrene (PS) in the US is anticipated to remain firm over the second half of the year and to finish 2021 with higher consumption than 2020.

US cumene production issues to tighten supply into H2
Despite July contracts settling lower, ongoing US cumene production constraints are expected to tighten supplies going into H2.

Long-constrained US butac supply will begin to loosen in Q3, Q4
After facing heavily constrained supply in the aftermath of winter storm Uri and for much of Q2, the US butyl acetate (butac) market is showing signs of lengthening.

US oxo-alcohol supply constraints predicted through Q4 2021
In the first half of 2021, especially following winter storm Uri, oxo-alcohols were among the most constrained petrochemicals in the US market, as even contract buyers received less than contractual allocations.

Upstream issues to keep US TiO2 supply snug-to-tight in H2
Titanium dioxide (TiO2) domestic contracts have risen in the past two quarters due to tight supply and recovering demand, including for Q3 contracts that settled on 23 July.

US H2 phenol to remain snug on bullish feedstocks, demand
US H2 phenol supply is expected to remain snug amid feedstock limitations and strong demand.

US gasoline demand to remain at seasonally typical levels through H2
US gasoline demand is expected to remain at seasonally typical levels through the second half of the year as the market has mostly recovered from the lows seen in 2020 and early 2021.

Supply disruptions to keep US etac limited through H2 amid healthy demand
Supply disruptions for US etac stemming from tight feedstock acetic acid supply are expected to continue through the second half of 2021 amid stronger than usual demand.

US H2 acetone to stay balanced amid feedstock, demand pressure
US H2 acetone is expected to stay balanced, but players will monitor feedstock and demand pressure.

Strong demand, sparse feedstock supply to support US paraffin wax in H2
Despite a recent lull in buying activity, US paraffin wax is experiencing  overall strong demand and sparse feedstock base oil supply heading into H2.

Elevated soybean oil costs to continue to weigh on Americas biodiesel markets
Elevated soybean oil (SBO) costs will continue to pressure the Americas biodiesel markets through the remainder of 2021 as the global supply of soybeans remains tight.

US acetic acid inventory rebuild to last through H2
While significant supply relief has yet to take place for the US acetic acid market, inventory rebuild will be the focus for participants throughout H2.

US VAM H2 inventory improvement to be slow process
While the supply situation continues to improve for US vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), any production issue or significant impact to the supply chain could derail inventory rebuilds in H2.

US polycarbonate supply improving, but market will remain tight
US polycarbonate (PC) supply will continue to improve in the second half of 2021, but healthy demand will keep the market tight in the short term.

US SBR remains tight in H2 on BD constraints
US styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) markets are expected to face butadiene (BD) feedstock constraints through H2, which will limit production.

US BD shortages hamper supply chain through H2
US butadiene (BD) supply is expected to remain tight through the second half of 2021, and users in the supply chain are planning for insufficient feedstock into 2022.

US styrene supply looks ample in 2H 2021
The US styrene market will look markedly different in the second half of 2021 compared with the first as major supply constraints have eased.

US PGP market to loosen gradually in H2, barring supply disruptions
The US polymer-grade propylene (PGP) market is expected to loosen gradually during the second half of this year, barring any significant supply disruptions.

US EPS supply/demand balance to remain tight
The tight supply/demand balance in US expandable polystyrene (EPS) market will continue at least through Q3 as construction demand is strong and as producers try to replenish inventory.

US PVC supply recovery and production capacity expansions
US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is expected to see greater supply in the North America market as production problems near resolution entering the third quarter and new production capacity expansions hover on the horizon for the last half of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022.

US caustic soda likely in tight supply for rest of 2021
It appears that US liquid caustic soda will go through the second half of 2021 much the same way it has the past year: with low production rates and tightened supply.

US EDC likely to remain preserved for internal PVC for H2 2021
The record-setting demand for its downstream derivative means that US ethylene dichloride (EDC) will remain in tight supply for spot export transactions through the second half of 2021 and probably into 2022.

US H2 epoxy resin supply to improve, but remain pressured
US H2 epoxy resin supply is expected to improve, but some pressure could persist due to inventory and logistical issues.

US BDO supply to remain tight through Q4
US butanediol (BDO) demand is expected to continue to outstrip supply through the end of 2021.

US acrylates to remain tight in H2 due to upstream oxo-alcohols pressure
Supply of US acrylic acid and acrylate esters has been limited for domestic buyers in the first half of the year, particularly in the aftermath of winter storm Uri.

US soda ash to feel steady demand recovery during H2 2021
US soda ash production, exports and apparent consumption continue their recovery into the second half of 2021.

Corn prices to continue pressuring US ethanol markets through H2
Elevated global corn prices are expected to continue pressuring both the US fuel and industrial ethanol markets through the remainder of 2021.

US jet fuel demand continues slow recovery through H2
The US jet fuel market is expected to continue its slow demand recovery through the second half of 2021, although the market is not expected to be back to normal demand levels for several years.

US MTBE demand likely to slip in typical H2 seasonality
US methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) is likely to see a decline in demand in H2 as is typical in the back half of the year when gasoline consumption is seasonally slower.

Tight US melamine supply to persist in Q3, may ease nominally in Q4
US melamine supply is expected to remain severely tight throughout most of Q3, potentially easing only nominally in the final three months of this year if logistics smooth out and demand cools along with seasonal temperatures .

US aromatic and aliphatic solvents demand may see H2 strength
The broadly upbeat outlook for US aromatic and aliphatic solvents demand during the second half of 2021 hinges on expected healthy fuels demand from automobiles and airliners as commuting to work and school, as well as business travel, returns to some level of normality.

US PP to PGP spreads to remain elevated through H2
Spreads between polypropylene (PP) prices and polymer grade propylene (PGP) values are expected to remain at elevated levels through the second half of the year due to healthy domestic demand.

US ACN supply expected to catch up to demand in H2
US acrylonitrile (ACN) supply is expected to catch up to demand in H2, pending unplanned supply chain disruptions in the coming months.

Persistent US MPG supply woes may begin to ease in latter 2021
The supply constraints that have beset global mono propylene glycol (MPG) customers since H2 2020 will continue to include and impinge on the US market well into the second half of this year.

US glycol ethers expected to remain tight, but will lengthen by year’s end
US glycol ethers spot prices have risen in the first half of the year because of reduced availability following sales allocations for contract buyers.

US MEK market expects tepid demand, ample supply in H2
The US methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market is expected to continue to experience tepid demand amid ample supply in the second half of 2021.

US IPA market expects to face ongoing supply length, soft demand in H2
The US isopropanol (IPA) market will face ongoing supply length and soft demand in the second half of 2021.

US plasticizers will continue to be stymied by logistics amid strong H2 demand
Hampered logistics and strong demand will continue to dominate the US plasticizers dioctyl terephthalate (DOTP), dioctyl phthalate (DOP) and diisononyl phthalate (DINP) markets during the second half of 2021.

US ethylene demand could soften in H2 amid downstream turnarounds, greater overseas competition
The US ethylene market could face softening demand late this year amid more comfortable downstream inventory levels, derivative plant turnarounds and less overseas dependence on US monomer supply.

Greater US NGLs supply, demand expected in H2 amid higher industry-wide run rates
Both supply of and demand for US feedstocks in H2 should be greater than in H1 amid fewer disruptions throughout the supply chain.

US H2 fatty alcohols face further disruptions as pandemic worsens in SE Asia
The US H2 fatty alcohols market faces the major possibility of further supply chain disruptions as the pandemic continues to worsen in southeast Asia.

US H2 fatty acids face further disruptions as pandemic worsens in SE Asia
The US fatty acids market in H2 faces the major possibility of further supply chain disruptions as demand continues to outpace supply against the backdrop of worsening pandemic-related restrictions in southeast Asia.

US H2 glycerine faces further disruptions amid low biodiesel production as pandemic worsens in SE Asia
US H2 glycerine markets face the major possibility of further supply chain disruptions amid unseasonably low domestic biodiesel production against the backdrop of worsening pandemic-related disruptions in southeast Asia.