VIDEO: European power outlook for Winter 2021

Author: Laura Mendes

2021/10/12

LONDON (ICIS)— The ICIS Power team presents the key drivers for Winter '21 in the main electricity markets in Europe.

(All graphs in the video are linked below)

Germany

  • Bullish carbon, coal and gas prices to keep supporting near curve contracts
  • Day-ahead OTC delivering above October '21 and Q4 '21 expiry
  • German monthly clean dark spread set to remain higher than clean spark spread
  • German gas storage sites entered winter at their lowest level in 10 years

UK

France

  • Temperatures and gas price moves are key drivers for French power prices this winter
  • Nuclear availability for Q4 still above 2016-2020 average
  • Changes to nuclear schedule still possible, especially for Q1 '22
  • Hydro stocks are below the five-year average

Italy

CEE/SEE

  • Hungarian Q4 expired at a record high but remained below Italy
  • Reservoirs in Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Greece are at multi-year lows in recent weeks
  • Bulgarian-Romanian spot spread to vanish due to coupling

Spain

  • The Spanish electricity market has been consistently breaking new records
  • Planned nuclear maintenance at three of Spain’s  nuclear power plants during Q4 '21  likely to support Spanish delivery prices
  • Spanish government implemented new measures to combat electricity price spikes

Nordics