BLOG: China’s “common prosperity” uncertainties multiply as we head into the unknown

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. How often does one of the world’s two biggest economies attempt to entirely rebuild its growth model?

The answer, of course, is not very often and what is happening today in China is as radical as the White House saying “Hey everyone, we are going to abandon capitalism”.

And yet shockingly in a world that’s growing ever-more parochial, too many people are either unaware of the “common prosperity” transformation taking place in China or think the transformation will inevitably be successful.

Please become informed, if you are not already, and don’t make the mistake of assuming success.

Instead, you need to go back to the petrochemicals supply and demand drawing board, relook at all your numbers and build new scenarios that will need to be constantly revised.

As today’s blog considers, maybe the soar-away growth in Chinese per capita polypropylene demand we have seen over the last 20 years won’t continue. Or maybe it will.

The complications are so many that lower growth might even apply in the event of “common prosperity” success if China’s economy becomes less basic commodity-intensive. Or again, growth could remain as stellar as over the last 20 years.

Buckle up for the ride. We are heading into a period of exceptional volatility and uncertainty.

Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.