USDA expecting lower corn production but higher output of soybeans

Mark Milam


HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is expecting lower corn production but a higher output of soybeans, according to the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

The agency is showing that the current outlook for US corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use, slightly higher food, seed, and industrial use, smaller exports and lower ending stocks.

Corn production is forecast at 14.4bn bushels, down 146 million bushels from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 175.4 bushels/acre, is 1.6 bushels below last month’s projection.

Among the major producing states reports indicate that yields are forecast above those of a year ago in Illinois, Minnesota and South Dakota.

Meanwhile yields in Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska and Ohio are forecast below a year ago. Iowa is unchanged.

Projected beginning stocks for 2022-2023 are 20m bushels higher based on a lower use forecast where a reduction in corn used for ethanol is partially offset by greater use for glucose and dextrose.

Total US corn use for 2022-2023 is reduced by 45m bushels to 14.5bn bushels, with feed and residual use lowered by 25m bushels based on a smaller crop.

Exports for 2022-2023 are cut by 25m bushels to 2.4bn bushels.

With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are lowered by 82m bushels to 1.4bn bushels.

The season average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.65/bushel.

For soybeans, the USDA is calling for higher beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks.

Beginning soybean stocks are raised on lower 2021-2022 exports, while soybean production is forecast at 4.53bn bushels, up by 26m bushels with higher yields more than offsetting a lower harvested area.

The harvested area is forecast at 87.2m acres, down by 300,000 acres from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 51.9 bushels/acre is raised by 0.4 bushels from last month.

Soybean supplies for 2022-2023 are projected at 4.8bn bushels, up 36m bushels from last month.

Exports are raised 20m bushels to 2.16bn bushels on increased supplies, while soybean ending stocks are forecast at 245m bushels, up by 15m bushels.

The season-average soybean price is forecast at $14.35/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel from last month.

The next WASDE report will be released on 12 September.


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