US meteorologists revise ’22 hurricane season forecasts, still expect ‘above average’ count

Adam Yanelli

04-Aug-2022

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US meteorologists issued revised forecasts for the 2022 hurricane season on Thursday.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) maintained its forecast for an above-normal season, while the team at Colorado State University (CSU) lowered its forecast to above normal from very active.

NOAA forecasters slightly lowered the number of expected named storms to 14-20 from its previous forecast in May of 14-21.

A storm is named once it has sustained winds of 39 miles/hour (63 km/hour).

Of those, six to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 miles/hour or higher), which is unchanged from its previous forecast, and three to five could become major hurricanes with winds of 111 miles/hour or higher, down from its previous prediction of three to six.

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Category Wind speed
1 74-95 miles/hour
2 96-110 miles/hour
3 111-129 miles/hour
4 130-156 miles/hour
5 157+ miles/hour

CSU lowered its prediction to 18 named storms, which is down from the 20 it predicted in June.

CSU researchers initially predicted 19 named storms in its first forecast in April, then revised it higher to 20 after more data on the development of the La Nina weather pattern emerged.

NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad noted that August-October are the peak months for hurricane development and anticipates more storms on the way.

So far, the current season has seen three named storms and no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.

An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

The CSU team said that current La Nina conditions are likely to persist for the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season.

“We continue to anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental US coastline and in the Caribbean,” the CSU team said.

Petrochemical markets are already tight because of problems caused by logistical constraints and the busy hurricane season 2021.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs through 30 November.

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