Asia-Pacific economies’ 2025 growth to slow to 2.6% on trade tensions

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Growth in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region is expected to slow sharply to 2.6% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026 as escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainty weigh on investment and trade, the group said in a report released on Thursday.

The region posted a 3.6% growth in 2024.

Economic and trade activity across the 21 APEC member economies has slowed considerably, with export volumes projected to barely grow in 2025, according to the new report by the APEC Policy Support Unit.

Source: APEC

Forecast export volume growth for the group was 0.4% in 2025, while import volume growth will be even lower at 0.1%. They represent a sharp deceleration from 2024, when export and import volumes grew by 5.7% and 4.3%, respectively.

“From tariff hikes and retaliatory measures to the suspension of trade facilitation procedures and the proliferation of non-tariff barriers, we are witnessing an environment that is not conducive to trade,” APEC Policy Support Unit director Carlos Kuriyama said.

“This uncertainty is hurting business confidence and leading many firms to delay investments and new product launches until the situation becomes more predictable,” Kuriyama added.

While challenges persist, the report highlights an opportunity for member economies to strengthen cooperation and build resilience through structural reforms and open trade.

Kuriyama urged APEC economies to recommit to cooperation and stability. He noted that restoring confidence in trade requires not only easing tensions, but also expanding into new markets, strengthening supply chain resilience and improving transparency of trade rules and procedures.

The report was released ahead of the two-day Ministers Responsible of Trade Meeting in Jeju, South Korea, which opened on Thursday.