Summary of 2023 Americas Outlook stories
ICIS Editorial
17-Jan-2023
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the ’23 Americas Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news throughout December and January.
Click on a headline to read the full story.
OUTLOOK ’23: More
challenges in 2023 after big year for US
chems
While the chemical industry may have
experienced one of its best years in a decade,
growth slowed in the latter part of 2022,
casting a bit of industry doubt as the calendar
turns to 2023.
OUTLOOK ’23: US nylon
demand weak amid buyer’s market
US nylon 6 and nylon 6,6 demand is weak,
heading into 2023. It is a buyer’s market, and
the first half will be challenging for
manufacturers and sellers.
OUTLOOK ’23: US ABS, PC
demand to remain weak in H1
The first half of 2023 will be challenging for
producers and sellers of US acrylonitrile
butadiene styrene (ABS) and polycarbonate (PC),
as demand has softened, and the risk of a
recession is elevated.
OUTLOOK ’23: US BD, SBR
supplies ample against demand
headwinds
US butadiene (BD) and styrene butadiene rubber
(SBR) markets should be sufficiently supplied
in early 2023 despite BD outages and reduced
cracker rates and downstream rates.
OUTLOOK ’23: US BDO
expected to bend to macroeconomic
trends
US 1,4 butanediol (BDO) starts 2023 with
weakened demand for downstream derivatives and
the market is expected to follow macroeconomic
trends as weakened consumer confidence weighs
on its many consumer-facing end-products.
OUTLOOK ’23: Rising
renewable diesel capacity, lower-than-expected
volume requirements to weigh on biodiesel
demand
Rising renewable diesel capacity and
lower-than-expected proposed volume
requirements for the Renewable Fuel Standard
(RFS) program are expected to weigh on US
biodiesel demand in 2023.
OUTLOOK ‘23: US R-PET
sustainability-driven demand to increase, key
differences to note in supply
While 2022 has been a year of intense
volatility for the US recycled polyethylene
terephthalate (R-PET) market, growing pains may
continue in 2023, as new recycling capacity is
added and end-market demand continues to shift
from the traditional fibre industry towards
consumer brand companies as they source
increasing volumes of recycled resin to meet
their sustainable packaging goals.
OUTLOOK ’23: Lower
styrene demand, recessionary concerns weigh on
US benzene demand
Benzene derivative demand remained soft in late
Q4 ’22, particularly for styrene – which has
its lowest contract pricing since February
2021 – despite running at reduced
levels. Although demand has been more resilient
for some smaller downstream applications,
market players remain wary of recessionary
headwinds for the first half of 2023.
OUTLOOK ’23: US IPA, MEK
market sentiment downbeat on recession
fears
Demand sentiment in the US isopropanol (IPA)
and methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) markets heading
into 2023 remains largely downbeat.
OUTLOOK ’23: US melamine
may soften moderately, ‘buyer’s market’
possible
Amid predominantly negative near-term economic
indicators, US melamine demand is likely to
soften early in 2023, but ample domestic supply
could shift some pricing advantage back to
buyers for the first time since mid-2020.
OUTLOOK ’23: US toluene,
MX demand and premiums over RBOB to remain
elevated
US toluene and mixed xylenes (MX) demand is
expected to remain elevated to in 2023 due to
the recovery in fuels demand.
OUTLOOK ’23: US PX
consumption to remain low through first half of
2023
US paraxylene (PX) consumption is expected to
remain low through the first half of 2023 as a
result of low demand from downstream
polyethylene terephthalate (PET).
OUTLOOK ’23: US PP demand
outlook weak as new capacity starts
up
The US polypropylene (PP) industry is heading
into 2023 facing a weak demand outlook amid a
recessionary environment even as new capacity
came online late in 2022.
OUTLOOK ’23: LatAm PP
prices to be pressured by new US and Asian
capacities
Latin America polypropylene (PP) prices will
continue to be pressured by new capacities in
the US and Asia.
OUTLOOK ’23: US ACN
demand concerns to persist in H1 2023
US acrylonitrile (ACN) markets will continue to
face headwinds in Q1 2022 and likely H1 2023,
as mounting concerns over an increasingly
likely global recession weigh on the market
against the backdrop of existing long supply
and soft demand.
OUTLOOK ‘23: US A&A
solvents sentiment guardedly
optimistic
In moderate contrast to
an upbeat view a year ago, the outlook for US
aromatic and aliphatic (A&A) solvents for
H1 2023 is guardedly optimistic.
OUTLOOK ’23: US glycol
ethers, butac demand to remain weak into
H1
After considerable tightness in 2021 and in
early 2022, upstream availability of butyl
acetate (butac) has improved in the latter half
of 2022. However, demand in paints and coatings
applications have weakened. In addition to
butac, both E-series and P-series glycol ethers
have seen softer demand in Q4.
OUTLOOK ’23: US epoxy
resins cautious amid demand headwinds
US epoxy resins players are
cautious going into 2023 as they weigh
multiple demand scenarios in view of the
fragile economic climate.
OUTLOOK ’23: US MMA to
face supply length, demand headwinds
US methyl methacrylate (MMA) is cautious going
into 2023 as the global market is
facing challenging
conditions.
OUTLOOK ’23: Acrylate
demand to continue facing headwinds from
housing and construction
Demand for glacial acrylic acid (GAA) and
acrylates has softened in Q4 ’22. This is due
to both seasonality – including lower demand
from end-users in housing and destocking by
players seeking to limit tax burdens – and
ongoing, structural demand declines among
buyers.
OUTLOOK ’23: US EPS
market sees continued weakness ahead
The US expandable polystyrene (EPS) market is
likely to see continued weakness as it enters
2023 due to languishing demand but has its
sights on a possible recovery beginning in Q2.
OUTLOOK ’23: LatAm PS
market will continue to face headwinds in
2023
The Latin American polystyrene market will
continue to face headwinds in 2023, as
projected regional economic weakness will
combine with sufficient supply.
OUTLOOK ’23: US PE
margins to face pressure on slower demand,
expanding supply
US polyethylene (PE) margins are anticipated to
remain pressured into the first half of 2023 as
demand is slowing on weaker economic growth
even as capacity is expanding both within the
region and across the world.
OUTLOOK ’23: LatAm PE
prices to remain pressured on increased US
capacity
Latin American polyethylene (PE) prices will
remain pressured because of rising PE capacity
in the US, which is the main supplier of
imports to the region.
OUTLOOK ’23: US caustic
soda to see greater supply, slackening
demand
US liquid caustic soda is expected to move in
parallel with most commodities entering a new
year with expectations of flat to negative GDP
growth and global headwinds against economic
expansion.
OUTLOOK ’23: North
American TiO2 demand slowdown expected in H1
’23
Although titanium dioxide (TiO2) contract
discussions for Q1 2023 are underway, talks up
to this point have not moved at the same pace
as in previous quarters.
OUTLOOK ’23: Sluggish
demand outlook for US PS
The demand outlook for North American
polystyrene (PS) is weak heading into the early
months of 2023 following two years of solid
demand in 2021 and 2022.
OUTLOOK ’23: US ethylene
exports expected to surge as region maintains
competitive edge
Despite economic headwinds limiting domestic
derivative demand, US ethylene producers are
set to take advantage of expanded export
capacity and competitive economics through the
year.
INSIGHT – OUTLOOK ’23:
Slowdowns loom for Brazil, Mexico
Economists in Brazil and Mexico expect GDP
growth will slow down sharply in 2023, with
Brazil losing the benefits of a commodity rally
and Mexico suffering from slower growth in the
US.
OUTLOOK ’23: US soda ash
set for sharp contract increases; surging
demand for exports
US soda ash enters 2023 in relatively strong
demand and tight, but recovering, supply – and
the sharpest increases to annual contracts in
memory.
OUTLOOK ’23: US styrene
market poised for stability after volatile
year
The US styrene sector enters 2023 with
sufficient supply and soft demand and, with a
light turnaround schedule ahead, should see
much steadier market conditions than in 2022.
OUTLOOK ’23: US fatty
acids, alcohols demand expected slow in Q1
2023
US fatty acids and alcohols markets will face
continued headwinds in Q1 and likely in H1
2023, as long supply and slowing demand for
several carbon fractions against the backdrop
of soaring inflation and growing concerns over
a global recession weigh on the market.
OUTLOOK ’23: US acetic
acid demand largely dependent upon global
economy
Compared with many other chemicals sectors, the
acetic acid market in the US usually appears
quite placid because it does not generally
enjoy rapid growth in consumption, marked peaks
or troughs in purchasing activity due to
seasonal variations, notable supply problems,
or, consequently, steep price movements.
OUTLOOK ’23: US
polyurethane market expected to see sufficient
supply, slow demand into 2023
Demand for polyurethane systems is anticipated
to remain slow heading into 2023 amid a broader
economic slowdown and widespread expectations
for a recession in 2023.
OUTLOOK ’23: US MPG
supply expected to lengthen with upstream
production coming online
US mono propylene glycol (MPG) demand has
continued to fall in December. Although part of
the weaker demand is due to short-term issues
such as year-end destocking, softer demand is
expected to continue in Q1 2023. Short-term
supply is likely to continue lengthening.
OUTLOOK ’23: US chem
tanker rates remain elevated on tight supply as
container market softens
Around this time last year, demand for shipping
containers from east Asia and China to the US
were at all-time record highs while the liquid
chemical tanker market was struggling to
maintain rates amid weak demand.
OUTLOOK ’23: Players to
focus on US phenol run rates, acetone
supply
The outlook on US phenol run rates and acetone
supply is clouded because of the fragile
economic climate.
OUTLOOK ’23: US HCl
likely relatively balanced on opposing
supply-demand factors
US hydrochloric acid (HCl) starts 2023 with
opposing factors shaping the supply and demand
balance heading into the new year.
OUTLOOK: Lacklustre
demand affecting US paraffin wax business in H1
2023
Paraffin wax business is fiercely competing in
many niche markets, including the tire,
construction, packaging, candles, and food
industries, as product technology, design, and
price become even more important in retaining a
loyal customer base related to slack and fully
refined waxes.
OUTLOOK ’23: US fuel,
industrial ethanol facing competing factors in
H1
US fuel ethanol could face pressure in the new
year if there are competing forces such as a
recession versus if corn prices and natural gas
continue to remain slightly elevated; whereas
there could be some upward pressure for
industrial ethanol if production and material
costs remain elevated.
OUTLOOK 23: LatAm ethanol
market concerns about PIS, CONFINS return in H1
2023
Price increases for ethanol are expected for Q1
2023 because mills are betting on the return of
Programa de Integração Social (PIS) and
Contribuição para Financiamento da Seguridade
Social (COFINS) in the following year, causing
a lower number of offers in the spot market.
OUTLOOK ’23: US refined
products inventories to remain tight
US refined products inventories are expected to
remain tight in 2023 due to strong demand and
less refining capacity.
OUTLOOK ’23: US base oil
markets start sluggish but could firm
US base oil supply is long against weak demand
heading into 2023, but two major turnarounds in
H1 should rebalance the markets.
OUTLOOK ’23: US MA facing
demand headwinds, bearish feedstocks
US maleic anhydride (MA) is less firm going
into 2023 as sentiment is cautious amid demand
headwinds.
OUTLOOK ‘23: US R-PE to
see diverging trends on sustainability vs
cost-sensitive resin demand
The US recycled polyethylene (R-PE) market will
continue to show diverging market trends in
2023, depending on the recycled resin grade.
Sustainability-driven demand for material such
as post-consumer, natural coloured recycled
high-density polyethylene (R-HDPE) or recycled
low-density polyethylene (R-LDPE) will continue
to be robust as companies make progress against
regulatory and voluntary post-consumer recycled
(PCR) content targets.
OUTLOOK ’23: Global
downturn will drag US chem exports
Economic downturns and recessions around the
world will drag down US exports, while the
country’s producers should benefit from
improving logistics and cost advantages for
energy and feedstock.
OUTLOOK ’23: Higher for
longer rates to pressure US, global
economies
Elevated inflation and the US Federal Reserve’s
response in taming this beast will be a key
driver for not just the US but global economies
as central banks around the world also strive
to achieve price stability, even at the cost of
growth.
OUTLOOK ’23: US etac
expected to face downward pressure in
H1
Similarly to what was expected to happen
mid-year, the US ethyl acetate (etac) market
expects competitive pricing during the start of
2023 as demand has been soft and destocking has
been occurring.
OUTLOOK ’23: US MTBE
export demand to remain healthy as gasoline
demand recovers
US methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) exports
are expected remain healthy in 2023 as the
tightness in octane boosters supply continues
and global gasoline demand recovers.
OUTLOOK ’23: US
plasticizers demand expected slow in Q1; price
hikes sought for oxo-alcohols
Despite soft demand in Q4, a price increase
nomination for 1 January has emerged for US
oxo-alcohol buyers. Meanwhile, players are
expecting a slow start in Q1 for plasticizers
demand in early 2023.
OUTLOOK ’23: US PA, OX
demand expected to remain weak on economic
headwinds
Demand for phthalic anhydride (PA) is expected
to remain weak through the beginning of 2023 as
the market continues to destock inventories.
OUTLOOK ’23: Plant
activity will tighten US propylene balance even
as economy undermines demand
Derivative demand for US propylene will remain
weak until at least Q3, but plant maintenance
and a new propylene oxide/tertiary butyl
alcohol (POTBA) plant will help support the
market in the first half of the year.
OUTLOOK ’23: US PVC and
vinyls chain face new year of weakened
demand
US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) enters 2023 with
mixed outlook: nominations for price increases
for January and an economic outlook that runs
counter to those separately proposed increases.
OUTLOOK: Higher PVC
prices expected in Latin America in H1
2023
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices in Latin
America are placed to follow Asia market trends
in Q1 2023, as Formosa Taiwan raised its prices
to all destinations last week and sold out on
the same day.
OUTLOOK ’23: US methanol
exports expected to remain the bright
spot
US methanol supply in 2023 is expected to be
healthier, while demand growth forecast to slow
in comparison to 2022.
OUTLOOK ’23: US chemical
equities look to rebound from 2022
backsliding
Chemical equities over the past year reversed
gains experienced in 2021, and will end 2022
sharply lower year on year.
OUTLOOK ’23: US glycerine
oversupply to persist in H1 2023
US glycerine supply is largely expected to
outpace demand in H1 2023, as demand concerns
persist with soaring inflation and growing
fears over a global recession.
OUTLOOK ’23: US PET, PTA
demand expected to remain muted on economic
headwinds
US virgin polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
demand will likely remain weak through the
remainder of 2022 and into the first half of
2023.
OUTLOOK ’23: LatAm PET
contracts and spot prices under pressure in H1
2023
Latin America polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
consumption rates continue to follow
international benchmark markets due to global
economic uncertainties and unexpected weather
conditions.
OUTLOOK ’23: US soda ash
set for sharp contract increases; surging
demand for exports
US soda ash enters 2023 in relatively strong
demand and tight, but recovering, supply – and
the sharpest increases to annual contracts in
memory.
OUTLOOK ’23: US styrene
market poised for stability after volatile
year
The US styrene sector enters 2023 with
sufficient supply and soft demand and, with a
light turnaround schedule ahead, should see
much steadier market conditions than in 2022.
OUTLOOK ’23: US fatty
acids, alcohols demand expected slow in Q1
2023
US fatty acids and alcohols markets will face
continued headwinds in Q1 and likely in H1
2023, as long supply and slowing demand for
several carbon fractions against the backdrop
of soaring inflation and growing concerns over
a global recession weigh on the market.
OUTLOOK ’23: US acetic
acid demand largely dependent upon global
economy
Compared with many other chemicals sectors, the
acetic acid market in the US usually appears
quite placid because it does not generally
enjoy rapid growth in consumption, marked peaks
or troughs in purchasing activity due to
seasonal variations, notable supply problems,
or, consequently, steep price movements.
OUTLOOK ’23: US
polyurethane market expected to see sufficient
supply, slow demand into 2023
Demand for polyurethane systems is anticipated
to remain slow heading into 2023 amid a broader
economic slowdown and widespread expectations
for a recession in 2023.
OUTLOOK ’23: US MPG
supply expected to lengthen with upstream
production coming online
US mono propylene glycol (MPG) demand has
continued to fall in December. Although part of
the weaker demand is due to short-term issues
such as year-end destocking, softer demand is
expected to continue in Q1 2023. Short-term
supply is likely to continue lengthening.
OUTLOOK ’23: US chem
tanker rates remain elevated on tight supply as
container market softens
Around this time last year, demand for shipping
containers from east Asia and China to the US
were at all-time record highs while the liquid
chemical tanker market was struggling to
maintain rates amid weak demand.
OUTLOOK ’23: Players to
focus on US phenol run rates, acetone
supply
The outlook on US phenol run rates and acetone
supply is clouded because of the fragile
economic climate.
OUTLOOK ’23: US HCl
likely relatively balanced on opposing
supply-demand factors
US hydrochloric acid (HCl) starts 2023 with
opposing factors shaping the supply and demand
balance heading into the new year.
OUTLOOK: Lacklustre
demand affecting US paraffin wax business in H1
2023
Paraffin wax business is fiercely competing in
many niche markets, including the tire,
construction, packaging, candles, and food
industries, as product technology, design, and
price become even more important in retaining a
loyal customer base related to slack and fully
refined waxes.
OUTLOOK ’23: US fuel,
industrial ethanol facing competing factors in
H1
US fuel ethanol could face pressure in the new
year if there are competing forces such as a
recession versus if corn prices and natural gas
continue to remain slightly elevated; whereas
there could be some upward pressure for
industrial ethanol if production and material
costs remain elevated.
OUTLOOK 23: LatAm ethanol
market concerns about PIS, CONFINS return in H1
2023
Price increases for ethanol are expected for Q1
2023 because mills are betting on the return of
Programa de Integração Social (PIS) and
Contribuição para Financiamento da Seguridade
Social (COFINS) in the following year, causing
a lower number of offers in the spot market.
OUTLOOK ’23: US refined
products inventories to remain tight
US refined products inventories are expected to
remain tight in 2023 due to strong demand and
less refining capacity.
OUTLOOK ’23: US base oil
markets start sluggish but could firm
US base oil supply is long against weak demand
heading into 2023, but two major turnarounds in
H1 should rebalance the markets.
OUTLOOK ’23: US MA facing
demand headwinds, bearish feedstocks
US maleic anhydride (MA) is less firm going
into 2023 as sentiment is cautious amid demand
headwinds.
OUTLOOK ‘23: US R-PE to
see diverging trends on sustainability vs
cost-sensitive resin demand
The US recycled polyethylene (R-PE) market will
continue to show diverging market trends in
2023, depending on the recycled resin grade.
Sustainability-driven demand for material such
as post-consumer, natural coloured recycled
high-density polyethylene (R-HDPE) or recycled
low-density polyethylene (R-LDPE) will continue
to be robust as companies make progress against
regulatory and voluntary post-consumer recycled
(PCR) content targets.
OUTLOOK ’23: Global
downturn will drag US chem exports
Economic downturns and recessions around the
world will drag down US exports, while the
country’s producers should benefit from
improving logistics and cost advantages for
energy and feedstock.
OUTLOOK ’23: Higher for
longer rates to pressure US, global
economies
Elevated inflation and the US Federal Reserve’s
response in taming this beast will be a key
driver for not just the US but global economies
as central banks around the world also strive
to achieve price stability, even at the cost of
growth.
OUTLOOK ’23: US etac
expected to face downward pressure in
H1
Similar to what was expected to happen
mid-year, the US ethyl acetate (etac) market
expects competitive pricing during the start of
2023 as demand has been soft and destocking has
been occurring.
OUTLOOK ’23: US MTBE
export demand to remain healthy as gasoline
demand recovers
US methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) exports
are expected remain healthy in 2023 as the
tightness in octane boosters supply continues
and global gasoline demand recovers.
OUTLOOK ’23: US
plasticizers demand expected slow in Q1; price
hikes sought for oxo-alcohols
Despite soft demand in Q4, a price increase
nomination for 1 January has emerged for US
oxo-alcohol buyers. Meanwhile, players are
expecting a slow start in Q1 for plasticizers
demand in early 2023.
OUTLOOK ’23: US PA, OX
demand expected to remain weak on economic
headwinds
Demand for phthalic anhydride (PA) is expected
to remain weak through the beginning of 2023 as
the market continues to destock inventories.
OUTLOOK ’23: Plant
activity will tighten US propylene balance even
as economy undermines demand
Derivative demand for US propylene will remain
weak until at least Q3, but plant maintenance
and a new propylene oxide/tertiary butyl
alcohol (POTBA) plant will help support the
market in the first half of the year.
OUTLOOK ’23: US PVC and
vinyls chain face new year of weakened
demand
US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) enters 2023 with
mixed outlook: nominations for price increases
for January and an economic outlook that runs
counter to those separately proposed increases.
OUTLOOK: Higher PVC
prices expected in Latin America in H1
2023
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices in Latin
America are placed to follow Asia market trends
in Q1 2023, as Formosa Taiwan raised its prices
to all destinations last week and sold out on
the same day.
OUTLOOK ’23: US methanol
exports expected to remain the bright
spot
US methanol supply in 2023 is expected to be
healthier, while demand growth forecast to slow
in comparison to 2022.
OUTLOOK ’23: US chemical
equities look to rebound from 2022
backsliding
Chemical equities over the past year reversed
gains experienced in 2021, and will end 2022
sharply lower year on year.
OUTLOOK ’23: US glycerine
oversupply to persist in H1 2023
US glycerine supply is largely expected to
outpace demand in H1 2023, as demand concerns
persist with soaring inflation and growing
fears over a global recession.
OUTLOOK ’23: US PET, PTA
demand expected to remain muted on economic
headwinds
US virgin polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
demand will likely remain weak through the
remainder of 2022 and into the first half of
2023.
OUTLOOK ’23: LatAm PET
contracts and spot prices under pressure in H1
2023
Latin America polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
consumption rates continue to follow
international benchmark markets due to global
economic uncertainties and unexpected weather
conditions.
OUTLOOK ’23: US PET, PTA
demand expected to remain muted on economic
headwinds
US virgin polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
demand will likely remain weak through the
remainder of 2022 and into the first half of
2023.
OUTLOOK ’23: Chemical
M&A stymied by rates, uncertainty but may
rebound in H2
High interest rates, lack of available
financing and economic and earnings uncertainty
are holding back chemical industry mergers and
acquisitions (M&A). However, activity may
be poised to rebound in H2 2023 as the backlog
of undone deals builds up, a clearer earnings
picture emerges and especially if the financing
market improves.
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