Turkey sustains $34bn damage from Feb quakes; faces massive reconstruction costs

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Turkey has incurred $34.2bn in direct physical damages from the massive earthquakes on 6 February that killed tens of thousands of people. The estimated cost is equivalent to 4% of the country’s 2021 GDP, with reconstruction expenses expected to be substantially higher, according to the World Bank.

• Official death toll exceeds 44,000; 1.25m people displaced
• New 5.6-magnitude quake hit same southeast region on 27 February
• Petrochemical production, logistics hit

“Recovery and reconstruction costs will be much larger, potentially twice as large, and that GDP losses associated to economic disruptions will also add to the cost of the earthquakes,” the World Bank on 27 February.

The 7.8- and 7.5-magnitude earthquakes on 6 February, which were followed by more than 7,500 aftershocks and two additional earthquakes, was the largest such disaster to hit the country in over 80 years, with 11 provinces in southern Turkey badly hit.

The death toll from the earthquakes currently stood at 44,128 in Turkey, according to latest data from the country’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD).

“Continued aftershocks will also likely add to this damage estimate over time,” the World Bank said.

Another earthquake with a magnitude of 5.6 struck the same southeastern region on 27 February, killing one and injuring more than 100 people and caused 29 building to collapse, newswire agency Reuters reported.

Some 1.25m people have been rendered homeless due to moderate to severe damage or complete collapse of residential buildings.

The World Bank estimates that 81% of the estimated damages occurred in Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Gaziantep, Malatya and Adıyaman provinces, which are home to around 6.45m people, or around 7.4% of Turkey’s total population.

Direct damages to residential buildings account for 53% or $18bn of the total damage, with 28% of damage in non-residential buildings such as health facilities, schools, government buildings, and private sector buildings, and 19% of damage related to infrastructure such as roads and water supply.

The earthquakes also disrupted petrochemical production and logistics in the country, with break bulk vessels for transportation being used instead of the usual container shipments amid port congestion.

SASA Polyester announced on 22 February a one-month checks and maintenance suspension of a dimethyl terephthalate (DMT) production line in the aftermath of the earthquakes.

Turkish Koksan and Thai Indorama Ventures Ltd (IVL), which have PET operations in Turkey, have declared force majeure to their feedstock suppliers in the immediate aftermath of the earthquakes. Koksan’s PET plant in Gaziantep is operational.

Europe’s caustic soda and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) exports into Turkey almost ground to a halt in early February.

Turkey is a major European export market for caustic soda and PVC, with the US among its biggest suppliers. The country is also the fourth largest polypropylene (PP) consumer globally and the second largest PP importer in the world.

Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

Thumbnail image: Debris in Kahramanmaras caused by deadly quakes in Turkey. 15 February 2023 (By Tunahan Turhan/SOPA Images/Shutterstock)