MARKET COMMENT: Northwest Europe ammonia-to-hydrogen production costs drop below €5/kg

LONDON (ICIS)–The ICIS Northwest Europe ammonia-to-hydrogen assessment fell back below the €5/kg mark for the first time in almost two years during week 12 as ammonia pricing slid further down in value.

The ammonia-to-hydrogen northwest Europe assessment fell by another €0.23/kg week-on-week to €4.80/kg on 23 March, the first time the assessment has been below €5/kg since the latter part of June 2021.

Natural gas-based hydrogen production methods also posted losses in their value. However, with the key TTF hub largely steady during the week, losses were limited and not as pronounced as those on the ammonia-to-hydrogen assessment.

Both front-month based unabated steam methane reforming (SMR) and low carbon autothermal reforming (ATR) hydrogen production held discounts of €1.09-€1.40/kg below imported ammonia-for-hydrogen.

AMMONIA MARKET

Global demand for ammonia has remained subdued, with no shortage of the product in northwest Europe and weak demand for finished products.

Weaker gas hub prices have seen ammonia production continue to increase after dropping during the high hub price, limiting requirements for imports and lending itself to a loose market.

However, demand expectations could potentially return in Turkey, where enquiries for product have been heard as a result of the low prices.

GAS MARKET

The ICIS Dutch TTF April ’23 contract was largely rangebound during the week, hovering around the €43/MWh mark with prompt prices on the NBP finding support at 100p/therm.

Predominantly mild temperatures are forecast to remain over much of Europe heading into the beginning of April. Nonetheless, some support has come from weaker LNG regasification rates in France due to strike action.

With the Summer ’23 contract due to expire at the end of March and a large storage overhang on the horizon, there is potential for some volatility during week 13 as market participants decide to close out the front season or take volume into spot delivery.