MARKET COMMENT: Northwest Europe ammonia-to-hydrogen production dips heading into May

LONDON (ICIS)–The ICIS Northwest Europe ammonia-to-hydrogen assessment posted mild losses during week 17, falling back below the €4.50/kg barrier in the process amid a bearish energy complex.

The ammonia-to-hydrogen northwest Europe assessment fell by €0.14/kg on a weekly basis to be assessed at €4.47/kg on 27 April after pricing had been steady around the €4.60/kg mark for the bulk of April.

Natural gas-based hydrogen production methods dropped by a similar amount over the same time frame with some small decreases in value reported on the European gas hubs, with premiums relatively stable as a result just above the €1/kg mark.

However, baseload electrolysis in the Netherlands fell by close to €0.40/kg week on week with power pricing in Europe coming under pressure from French nuclear power generation optimism, standing at €6.03/kg on 27 April, still a solid €1.56/kg premium to the ammonia-to-hydrogen equivalent.

AMMONIA MARKET

In Europe, demand for ammonia continued to be seen as weak with limited requirement for both nitrates and urea.

Buying interest from Turkey that surfaced in mid-April has since eased, and demand into China has suffered on the back of increased port waiting periods at Zhanjiang.

Elsewhere, contract price settlement in Tampa for May posted a $55/tonne decrease to $380/tonne because of a lack of demand in the major regions.

GAS MARKET

The ICIS Dutch TTF May ’23 contract tracked broadly sideways during week 17, hovering just below €40/MWh with again no clear price direction available for market participants.

Storage injections continue to be over 50% slower than during the same time in 2022 with net injections for the 1-27 April gas days having average 2.5TWh/day this year against the 1.2TWh/day from the same period last year.

Nonetheless, stocks in Europe began the 27 April gas day at 670TWh, way up on an annual basis with the 367TWh from the same time in 2022.