MARKET COMMENT: Northwest Europe ammonia-to-hydrogen production costs hit 5-month high

Gary Hornby


LONDON (ICIS)–The ICIS Northwest Europe ammonia-to-hydrogen assessment continued its recent bullish trend and set a fresh five-month high in the process with ammonia pricing seeing remaining support amongst market participants.

The ammonia-to-hydrogen assessment posted a weekly increase for the eighth straight week, up €0.10/kg to come in at €4.64/kg, the highest value since early April this year and €0.80/kg higher than the multi-year low recorded as recently as mid-July.

Low carbon hydrogen produced via steam methane reforming (SMR) with carbon capture and storage (CCS) attached rose by a similar amount week on week, maintaining its solid discount, climbing €0.08/kg to stand at €3.13/kg on 7 September.

Baseload electrolysis, however, posted a hefty €0.40/kg drop on the week to €5.99/kg, back below the €6/kg mark for the first time since early August, with wholesale power pricing dropping on a weekly basis.


The ammonia market saw prices steady during early September after the recent increases in valuations caused by demand re-emerging from some global regions and production cuts.

In Asia, some enquiries for spot cargoes have been heard but there is a lack of availability, but demand is steady with weak demand from the chemicals sector but solid demand for fertilizer.

Production of ammonia is due to recover with scheduled maintenance in Saudi Arabia due to end in mid-September and Trinidad having restored gas supply to ammonia production facilities.


The ICIS Dutch TTF October ’23 contract saw bearish sentiment for the bulk of the early part of September with the market taking direction from news coming out of Australia regarding potential strikes at LNG export facilities.

Although Australian LNG does not travel as far as European shores, it is a key supplier to the Asian market, and any drop in Asian LNG volume deliveries could see LNG vessels being diverted away from Europe towards the likes of Japan and China.

October TTF dropped to trade just above the €30/MWh barrier mid-week, however, news of potential strikes resurfaced late Thursday which saw October changing hands around the €35/MWh mark.


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