MARKET COMMENT: Northwest Europe ammonia-to-hydrogen assessment nears €5/kg

LONDON (ICIS)–The ICIS ammonia-to-hydrogen assessment climbed once again week on week as EU market participants sourced supply via Algeria. However, general supply availability at a global level and stable demand means importing hydrogen via ammonia remains cheaper on a cost basis than domestic electrolytic hydrogen production.

The assessment reached €4.91/kg of hydrogen on 14 September, its highest level since 16 March 2023, ICIS data showed.

The ammonia-to-hydrogen assessment reflects the cost of importing fossil-based ammonia to northwest Europe and then decomposing that ammonia into hydrogen. The ammonia price referenced is the ICIS CFR Northwest Europe Duty Unpaid assessment, published every working Thursday.

Some demand for ammonia spot supply lifted prices in Europe in week 37, as market participants aimed to secure a cargo from Algeria to meet demand.

Adding to the slight uptick in ammonia prices was the fact that domestic producers continued to deliberate on whether to ramp up production amid relatively stable gas prices or to continue to rely on imports.

European gas prices saw an uptick earlier in week 37 as US Freeport LNG, located on the US Gulf Coast, witnessed a drop in feedgas flows to the terminal. However, European gas benchmarks, such as the ICIS TTF front month, began to ease by Friday intra-day trading.

Ammonia spot cargo prices could also ease in coming weeks, with buying interest minimal and demand relatively lacking. This could keep the difference between imported ammonia-to-hydrogen and Dutch low carbon hydrogen via an autothermal reformer (ATR) within €2.00/kg hydrogen.