Active Atlantic hurricane season likely to continue – NOAA

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to remain extremely active, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Thursday in an update to its previous forecast.

The only change to the previous forecast, which predicted the greatest number of hurricanes in the agency’s history, was a slight reduction in the number of named storms, from 17-25 to 17-24.

A storm is named once it has sustained winds of 39 miles/h (63 km/h).

“The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said. “NOAA’s update to the hurricane seasonal outlook is an important reminder that the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner, when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms tend to occur.”

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to support an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 90% probability of this result, NOAA said.

There is only a 10% chance of a near-normal season in 2024 and a negligible chance of a below-normal season.

Forecasters said the Atlantic Ocean basin is expected to be remarkably active due to several factors:

• Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
• Reduced vertical wind shear.
• Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds.
• An enhanced west African monsoon.

These conditions are expected to continue into the fall, NOAA said.

Of note, the dry Saharan air that prevented tropical storm development during portions of the middle of the summer is expected to subside in August.

Another factor this year is the possibility of La Nina developing in the coming months.

Hurricanes and tropical storms can disrupt the North American petrochemical industry because many of the nation’s plants and refineries are along the US Gulf Coast in the states of Texas and Louisiana.

In 2022, oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico accounted for about 15% of total US crude oil production and about 2% of total US dry natural gas production, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Even the threat of a major storm can disrupt oil and natural gas supplies because companies often evacuate US Gulf platforms as a precaution.

The updated hurricane forecast from Colorado State University’s (CSU’s) Weather and Climate Research department also predicted an extremely active season, expecting 23 named storms, 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs through 30 November.

See the Beryl and Gaemi: Impact on Chemicals topic page