Summary of 2025 Asia Outlook Stories

ICIS Editorial

13-Jan-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Asia Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025.

Click on a headline to read the full story.

2025 OUTLOOKS SUMMARY

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia naphtha Q1 sentiment upbeat on better demand
Asia’s naphtha market has rebounded from oversupply and weak demand, with sentiment expected to be lifted higher by gasoline buying interest, refinery maintenance and new cracker startups.

OUTLOOK ’25: New C2 capacity in SE Asia may transform landscape
While southeast Asian ethylene markets will see – by far – a smaller capacity expansion in 2025 compared to northeast Asia, expansion in the former is already shaping up to be significantly more impactful.

INSIGHT: NE Asia C2 oversupply makes for soft landing in 2025
Northeast Asia ethylene markets are facing a wave of new China-led capacities in 2025 that will tip the fundamental scales further into oversupply for the continent.

OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia, India brace for potentially more ethanolamines from China
Participants in southeast Asia and India are bracing for a potential deluge of Chinese cargoes flowing into their markets in the first quarter of 2025.

OUTLOOK ‘25: SE Asia PE to see sluggish start to 2025 as slow demand persists
The southeast Asian polyethylene (PE) market is expected to face a sluggish start to the new year, with strong pricing competition and slow demand likely to guide sentiment.

OUTLOOK ’25: China PE faces surge in domestic capacity, trade challenges
Despite expectations for a mild recovery in China’s polyethylene (PE) demand in 2025, supported by the country’s stimulus policies, a supply-demand imbalance is likely to exert pressure on both domestic and foreign PE markets.

OUTLOOK ‘25: South Asia PE, PP face supply pressure
India’s polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets are expected to face sustained pressure amid healthy domestic supply. However, strong domestic demand growth is likely to aid market rebalancing to some extent.

OUTLOOK ’25: Tourism, plant turnarounds, geopolitics to shape Mideast PP/PE markets
Weak market demand and an overall bearish sentiment were prevalent in both the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and East Mediterranean (East Med) polymer markets in Q4 2024.

OUTLOOK ’25: Demand for premium rPE, rPP cargoes from Asia to gain support from brands
Sustainability targets of major brand owners will continue to lend support to the uptake of high-quality recycled polyolefins with certifications, in 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia C3 poised for sustained capacity expansions, increased spot talks
Oversupply has been a running theme for the Asian propylene (C3) market for the past few years, as many C3 plants started up in the post-pandemic period while consumer demand struggled to keep up as economic recovery slowed.

OUTLOOK ’25: China propylene market may enter a new cycle on fewer new PDH units expected
China’s propylene market will continue to see new units come onstream in 2025, and the market may enter a new phase of structural transformation with the new capacities mainly coming from steam crackers and propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units.

OUTLOOK ’25: Supply overhang maintains pressure on SE Asia PP market
Southeast Asia’s polypropylene (PP) market will continue to see pressure from oversupply, which will lengthen further as new projects in China commence commercial operation.

OUTLOOK ’25: China’s PP supply-demand imbalance to intensify, exports to continue
China’s polypropylene (PP) market is expected to become increasingly imbalanced in 2025, driven by continued export growth and a decline in imports.

OUTLOOK ’25: China BD supply and demand to increase, exports to balance market
In 2025, butadiene (BD) capacity in China will expand and supply tightness in the local market is expected to ease compared with 2024.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia ACN supply growth to outpace demand, margins under pressure
The acrylonitrile (ACN) market is likely to face another challenging year for regional producers with oversupply and competition from China to keep the wider Asia market under pressure.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia BDO remains a buyer’s market amid oversupply
The Asia 1,4-butanediol (BDO) market is expected to come under even more pressure, with capacities in China still increasing and demand not keeping up with the expansions.

OUTLOOK ’25: China BDO to remain mired in supply glut
China’s supply surplus in 1,4-butanediol (BDO) is expected to extend into 2025 amid a heavy schedule of new capacities – a situation that is likely to see domestic suppliers press for new solutions.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PBT demand weakness continues, capacities stay idled
In 2024, the Asian polybutylene terephthalate (PBT) market saw regional producers facing more competition from China-origin materials due to overcapacity there.

OUTLOOK ’25: Uneven automotive sector growth weighs on Asia synthetic rubber demand
Import demand for various synthetic rubber grades in Asia – from styrene-butadiene-rubber (SBR), polybutadiene rubber (PBR) to acrylonitrile-butadiene-rubber (NBR) – will lean on how recovery and growth of major downstream industries behave.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PX looks to downstream demand growth, gasoline markets
The paraxylene (PX) markets in Asia may fare better in 2025 than in 2024 due to capacity expansions in the downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) sector amid controlled run rates at PX facilities.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia MX to face persistent headwinds from lackluster derivatives demand
The Asia mixed xylenes (MX) market is likely to see an extension of its existing demand struggles and bearish market sentiment going into 2025, with limited significant fundamental upturn expected in the long run.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia SM market focuses on China exports, contract-spot trade-offs
For Asia’s styrene monomer (SM) market players, the year 2024 was marked by squeezed margins, slow consumption recovery and a gradually transforming trade landscape.

OUTLOOK ’25: China styrene expansion slows, all eyes on trade flows
The pace of styrene capacity expansion in China is expected to slow in 2025, with only four units being put into operation including Shandong Chambroad Petrochemicals, Shandong Yulong PC, PetroChina Jilin and PetroChina Guangxi.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PS/EPS to see further competition and track SM changes
Despite slow global end-consumption recovery for polystyrene (PS) and expandable polystyrene (EPS), Asian suppliers’ margins remained at workable levels, with production adjustment and flexible inventory management in second-half 2024.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia benzene to begin new year on upbeat note
The benzene markets in Asia are expected to rebound in H1 2025 from the traditional slowdown seen in Q4 2024, on the back demand drivers from both the East and the West.

OUTLOOK ’25: China benzene to remain tightly balanced, supply growth to lag demand
China’s benzene market is expected to remain tightly balanced into 2025 on expectations of a rise in both supply and demand, although supply tightness may ease next year compared with 2024.

OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia toluene market gears up for volatility, demand likely modest
Asia toluene markets are bracing for a challenging trading environment, amid anticipated moderate demand in the first half of 2025 and increased supply.

OUTLOOK ’25: China toluene seeks export opportunities amid subsiding gasoline demand
The average price of China toluene during January-November 2024 fell by around 4% compared to the full-year average in 2023, according to ICIS data.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PET capacity additions to slow; trade flow shift continues
Asia’s polyethylene terephthalate (PET) new capacity expansions are expected to slow down in 2025, while the global trade flow may shift further with more trade restrictions against Chinese exports.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PTA supply growth to outstrip demand, margins under pressure
The purified terephthalic acid (PTA) market is expected to face a challenging year in 2025, with further expansion in supply, while demand is likely unable to catch up with the supply growth.

OUTLOOK ’25: China PTA supply glut to increase despite slowing capacity expansion
The capacity growth of China’s purified terephthalic acid (PTA) is expected to slow to about 8.3 million tonnes/year in 2025, down from 11.25 million tonnes/year in 2023. The 2024 capacity addition of 7.2 million tonnes/year was also lower than the 2023 level.

OUTLOOK ‘25: China MEG market to see limited new capacities, slowing demand growth
Planned new China monoethylene glycol (MEG) capacity for 2025 is still relatively limited, and fundamentals may not exert significant pressure, providing some support to the MEG market.

OUTLOOK ’25: China DEG supply remains high, cautious outlook for demand
Despite a lack of new capacity, domestic diethylene glycol (DEG) output still rose sharply in 2024 driven by improved co-product monoethylene glycol (MEG) margins.

OUTLOOK ’25: China’s capro self-sufficiency reshapes Asia trade
The caprolactam (capro) market in the Asia-Pacific region in 2024 saw China achieve self-sufficiency as it shifted its trade status from a net importer to a net exporter. China looks to solidify its position as a key exporter in the region with an additional 600,000 tonnes/year of capro capacity to come online in 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: China strengthens position in Asia-Pacific nylon trade
The Asia-Pacific nylon market in 2024 saw demand grow largely in the Chinese domestic market due to increased demand for industrial plastics.

OUTLOOK ’25: China caps ACN run rates, looks to increase exports
The supply of acrylonitrile (ACN) in China’s domestic market is expected to increase significantly in 2025, especially because Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical (ZRCC) and Sinochem Quanzhou are due to start up new units in the first half of the year.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia EDC suppliers to focus on contractual commitments amid suppressed demand
Asia’s ethylene dichloride (EDC) spot market is expected to remain structurally thin into 2025 due to lackluster downstream performance.

OUTLOOK ’25: Mideast PVC trade shifts expected amid India ADDs, China supply growth
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) supply is expected to improve in the coming year with new capacities to the tune of 2 million tonnes slated to come online in China.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia caustic soda demand growth likely to be uneven
Asia’s caustic soda spot market holds an optimistic demand outlook for certain markets, but players acknowledge that difficulties remain as market players head into 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Producers tweak Asia VAM plants as China supply-demand rebalances
Tightening supply is expected to support vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) spot prices in Asia amid differing downstream demand outlooks for China and other major Asia markets.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia MMA trade flows shift significantly
The winds of change are blowing hard for the methyl methacrylate (MMA) industry in Asia, with market players having witnessed significant shifts in trade flows and price influences in 2024.

OUTLOOK ’25: China MMA to face export opportunities amid capacity changes worldwide
Global supply and demand growth for methyl methacrylate (MMA) is expected to be roughly balanced in 2025, with capacity growth mainly concentrated in China and the US.

OUTLOOK ’25: New capacity to weigh on Asia phenol/acetone market
Asia’s phenol/acetone to feedstock spread may remain in the negative territory for the fourth consecutive year amid new capacities and a gloomy demand outlook even as the industry undergoes capacity consolidation.

OUTLOOK ’25: China phenol to face persistent supply-demand challenges
China’s phenol capacity will continue to expand in 2025, but this will meet limited demand increases due to downstream margin pressure.

OUTLOOK ’25: China’s acetone market to see increases in both supply and demand
In 2025, both supply and demand for acetone in China are expected to increase, but there are market concerns that issues in some downstream sectors may limit the actual demand growth.

OUTLOOK ’25: China to dominate growth of Asia EVA supply, demand
2024 marked the year that China shifted to lower imports of ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA), and 2025 is set to see capacity additions in China increasingly meet demand growth – mainly from the downstream photovoltaics (PV) sector.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PO imports demand likely to weaken further
Asia’s propylene oxide (PO) import markets are likely to face further weakening in demand in 2025, with supply in China set to lengthen.

OUTLOOK’25: China PO market faces challenge of oversupply
China’s propylene oxide (PO) capacity is expected to continue to grow in 2025 even as downstream capacity expands. Players largely hold the view oversupply will continue.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia polyols demand outlook mixed but pessimism dominant
Demand in the Asian region for slabstock polyether polyols is expected to be flat for the first half of 2025, with the outlook for H2 hazy but largely pessimistic.

OUTLOOK ’25: Middle East polyols face supply pressures
The Middle East polyols markets are expected to remain under pressure in 2025 due to persistent excess supply, relatively weak demand, and ongoing supply chain disruptions. These challenges are compounded by the addition of new polyols and propylene oxide (PO) capacities, macroeconomic uncertainties, and the volatility of upstream feedstock markets.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia isocyanates demand likely hampered, supply lengthy
Asian import markets of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and toluene diioscyanate (TDI) are set to face lengthy supply in 2025, and the downstream sectors are likely to continue facing headwinds.

OUTLOOK ’25: Middle East isocyanates face demand, freight challenges
In 2024, the isocyanates market in the Middle East experienced significant disruptions in shipping and supply chains due to a prolonged regional conflict. Despite these challenges, imports of polymeric methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (PMDI) increased year on year, while export volumes remained steady. Toluene diisocyanate (TDI) trade volumes were largely stable across both imports and exports.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asian PC market downturn to persist
Asia’s polycarbonate (PC) market is expected to remain downbeat in the next quarter as import demand is anticipated to be subdued but supplies will stay persistently high.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia’s bisphenol A market faces challenges in 2025
Asia’s bisphenol A (BPA) market will remain hampered by ample supplies and weak demand through the first quarter of 2025 as trade wars impact exports of countries involved in the conflict and further erode consumer confidence.

OUTLOOK ’25: China BPA capacity to expand further, export outlets sought
New Chinese bisphenol A (BPA) capacities are expected to come into operation in 2025, which may reduce the country’s reliance on imports and help China turn into a major exporter to broader Asia.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia’s MA demand anticipated to pick up in Q1 on stimulus measures
Asia’s maleic anhydride (MA) demand is expected to strengthen in early 2025 on restocking ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. China’s planned economic stimulus measures to boost its domestic economy is likely to lend positive support to MA demand.

OUTLOOK ’25: SE Asia to drive phthalic anhydride demand in early 2025
Sellers of lower priced Chinese origin phthalic anhydride (PA) material are expected to focus on southeast Asia post Lunar New Year, where demand is expected to remain firm in the first quarter of 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: China plasticizers demand to remain subdued amid ample domestic supply
China’s import market for plasticizers will likely continue to see thin trade in 2025, as demand for imports has steadily dwindled amid ample domestic supplies.

OUTLOOK ’25: China 2-EH to face supply-demand headwinds in Q1
China’s 2-ethyl hexanol (2-EH) market will face a challenging year in 2025, particularly in the first quarter, as a result of more ample supply and uncertainty in downstream demand.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia to become net MIBK exporter in new year
An excess methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) capacity emerging in Asia has dampened spot prices in the region and widened the arbitrage for trade across the Atlantic heading into 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia acetic acid supply glut to balloon on capacity expansion
Asia acetic acid supply is likely to outstrip demand on the back of China’s significant capacity growth into 2025, prompting producers to review regional plant run rates and supply contracts.

OUTLOOK ‘25: China acetic acid to rely on cost support amid supply growth
While China’s acetic acid market experienced fluctuations in 2024 , the mismatch in the growth of upstream and downstream capacities allowed acetic acid suppliers to maintain relatively healthy margins for most of the time.

OUTLOOK ’25: China acrylic acid supply to rise, exports and run rates monitored
China’s acrylic acid market is expected to see increasing supply in 2025 due to start-ups of new plants, and participants may turn their attention to the export market in the face of weak growth potential in domestic demand.

OUTLOOK ’25: China NBA supply to remain limited, demand to pick up in Q1
China’s domestic n-butanol (NBA) supply may remain tight in the first quarter of 2025, due to no unit start-up plans, multiple scheduled maintenance outages and low import volumes, while the launch of new downstream capacities may boost demand.

OUTLOOK ’25: Lack of demand outlets may limit growth for Asia adipic acid
Asia’s adipic acid markets have been through a tough 2024 on both demand and supply fronts.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia LAB remains stagnant, continues to underperform mid-cut fatty alcohols
The Asia linear alkylbenzene (LAB) market remained mostly flat in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the malaise in the market looks set to continue into 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia ABS, SAN to start year on upbeat note
The acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) markets in Asia are expected to start the new year on an upbeat note after festivity-driven trades, amid caution about possible tariffs on exports to the US.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia melamine demand could gain momentum, H2 ’25 capacity additions monitored
Asia’s melamine market could see some support in early 2025 from improving demand in China’s export market as buyers replenish inventories ahead of the Lunar New Year at end-January.

OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia IPA margin pressure to persist amid new capacity
Isopropanol (IPA) makers in Asia are bracing for a challenging start to 2025 as production margins remain poor and upcoming new capacity in China could disrupt market balance.

OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia MEK tight supply may ease; cost pressure to persist
Asia’s methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) markets gleaned support from tightened China supply in H2 December.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia glycol ethers face demand headwinds, BG may tighten in Q2
The butyl glycol (BG) markets in Asia could see ample supply against a backdrop of tepid demand in Q1 2025, but supply could tighten in Q2.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia ECH, LER oversupply to endure, ADD investigations to shape trade flows
Asia’s epichlorohydrin (ECH) and liquid epoxy resins (LER) markets will continue to grapple with regional oversupply, while antidumping duty (ADD) investigations of Asian LER makers in the US and Europe will shape trade flows.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia fatty acids demand to remain tepid in Q1 on upstream oil palm volatility
Asia’s fatty acids demand for the first quarter of 2025 is expected to be tepid, due to volatility in the upstream oil palm complex and weak consumer confidence.

OUTLOOK ’25: Volatile feedstock to weigh on Asia fatty alcohol mid-cuts in Q1
Buyers and sellers of fatty alcohols mid-cuts in Asia are expected to tussle over the market’s trajectory in the first quarter of 2025 amid volatile feedstock palm kernel oil (PKO) prices.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia glycerine Q1 supply may rise on Indonesia mandate
Asia’s glycerine supply may increase in the first quarter of 2025 as Indonesia is poised to increase its biodiesel mandate to B40 in January 2025, up from B35 in 2024.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia soap noodles demand tepid in Q1 on upstream volatility
Asia’s soap noodles demand is likely to remain tepid in the first quarter of 2025 amid expected continued volatility in upstream crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel oil (PKO) markets.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia FAE demand to remain tepid in Q1 amid squeezed margins
Asia’s demand for fatty alcohol ethoxylates (FAE) is likely to remain stable in the first quarter of 2025, but spot offers may be revised up due to squeezed margins.

OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia Group II/III base oils supply to rise, demand to improve from March
An increase in the supply of Asia Group II base oils is expected to gain traction from around mid-2025, with supply of heavy grade 500/600N likely to remain relatively tighter than that of light grade 150N.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia Group I base oils to navigate supply tightness
Entering into 2025, structural supply tightness of Group I base oils will remain the key market driver.  Where substitution is more likely, such as for SN150 and SN500, price dynamics will also depend on supply length for Group II 150N and 500N. On the other hand, brightstock availability will be a challenge amid supply disruptions in 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: China base oils demand unlikely to rebound sharply; imports to fall further
Overall demand for base oils in China is unlikely to improve significantly in 2025, because the domestic economy will still face challenges. Base oils imports have been in a downtrend since 2020, and the market share of domestically produced cargoes has been continuously rising, which will extend into 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia’s oxo-alcohols market braces for oversupply, squeezed margins
Asia’s oxo-alcohols spot markets are poised for a rocky year ahead due to oversupply and weak derivative margins, while a large buy-sell gap between Chinese buyers and Asian exporters will likely lead to more merchant volumes.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia AA, acrylates to see increased competition, slow demand growth
The Asia glacial acrylic acid (AA) and acrylates market is going to see capacity expanding at a faster pace in 2025 than the expected demand growth in Asia.

OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia etac, butac demand skewed towards conservative in H1 2025
Asia ethyl acetate (etac) and butyl acetate (butac) markets are bracing for a challenging demand landscape over the first half of 2025, factoring in supply length and macroeconomic concerns.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia chemical freight unlikely to stir in Q1 2025
The chemical tanker market in Asia is expected to soften into Q1 2025, with lackluster demand persisting amid a likely warmer winter in the northern hemisphere.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia methanol demand still uncertain amid new capacities
The outlook for methanol in Asia continues to be uncertain, with factors such as additional capacity, seasonal gas issues and upcoming downstream demand expected to play a role in this.

OUTLOOK ’25: China’s methanol demand growth may outpace supply increase amid slowing expansion
China’s methanol market may remain balanced to tight in the first half of 2025, as supply increase may fall behind demand growth, but domestic and overseas supply are expected to sustain modest growth.

OUTLOOK ’25: Asia MTBE demand to depend on gasoline, China’s oversupply remains
The outlook for Asian methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) remains uncertain, with factors such as added supply in China, volatility in crude prices and demand for gasoline expected to impact market movements in the coming months.

OUTLOOK ’25: China MTBE supply-demand imbalance to intensify, exports remain key
More capacity expansions and a lack of growth in gasoline blending amid sluggish domestic gasoline demand will keep methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) producers in China under heavy pressure to maintain domestic sales in 2025, with exports still their main area for growth momentum.

OUTLOOK ‘25: China titanium dioxide makers poised for challenges ahead
Players in Asia’s spot titanium dioxide (TiO2) market are set to start the new year with two big questions.

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