Summary of 2025 Asia Outlook Stories
ICIS Editorial
13-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Asia Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025.
Click on a headline to read the full story.
2025 OUTLOOKS SUMMARY
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia naphtha
Q1 sentiment upbeat on better demand
Asia’s naphtha market has rebounded from
oversupply and weak demand, with sentiment
expected to be lifted higher by gasoline buying
interest, refinery maintenance and new cracker
startups.
OUTLOOK ’25: New C2
capacity in SE Asia may transform
landscape
While southeast Asian ethylene markets will see
– by far – a smaller capacity expansion in 2025
compared to northeast Asia, expansion in the
former is already shaping up to be
significantly more impactful.
INSIGHT: NE Asia C2
oversupply makes for soft landing in
2025
Northeast Asia ethylene markets are facing a
wave of new China-led capacities in 2025 that
will tip the fundamental scales further into
oversupply for the continent.
OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia, India
brace for potentially more ethanolamines from
China
Participants in southeast Asia and India are
bracing for a potential deluge of Chinese
cargoes flowing into their markets in the first
quarter of 2025.
OUTLOOK ‘25: SE Asia PE
to see sluggish start to 2025 as slow demand
persists
The southeast Asian polyethylene (PE) market is
expected to face a sluggish start to the new
year, with strong pricing competition and slow
demand likely to guide sentiment.
OUTLOOK ’25: China PE
faces surge in domestic capacity, trade
challenges
Despite expectations for a mild recovery in
China’s polyethylene (PE) demand in 2025,
supported by the country’s stimulus policies, a
supply-demand imbalance is likely to exert
pressure on both domestic and foreign PE
markets.
OUTLOOK ‘25: South Asia
PE, PP face supply pressure
India’s polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene
(PP) markets are expected to face sustained
pressure amid healthy domestic supply. However,
strong domestic demand growth is likely to aid
market rebalancing to some extent.
OUTLOOK ’25: Tourism,
plant turnarounds, geopolitics to shape Mideast
PP/PE markets
Weak market demand and an overall bearish
sentiment were prevalent in both the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) and East
Mediterranean (East Med) polymer markets in Q4
2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: Demand for
premium rPE, rPP cargoes from Asia to gain
support from brands
Sustainability targets of major brand owners
will continue to lend support to the uptake of
high-quality recycled polyolefins with
certifications, in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia C3
poised for sustained capacity expansions,
increased spot talks
Oversupply has been a running theme for the
Asian propylene (C3) market for the past few
years, as many C3 plants started up in the
post-pandemic period while consumer demand
struggled to keep up as economic recovery
slowed.
OUTLOOK ’25: China
propylene market may enter a new cycle on fewer
new PDH units expected
China’s propylene market will continue to see
new units come onstream in 2025, and the market
may enter a new phase of structural
transformation with the new capacities mainly
coming from steam crackers and propane
dehydrogenation (PDH) units.
OUTLOOK ’25: Supply
overhang maintains pressure on SE Asia PP
market
Southeast Asia’s polypropylene (PP) market will
continue to see pressure from oversupply, which
will lengthen further as new projects in China
commence commercial operation.
OUTLOOK ’25: China’s PP
supply-demand imbalance to intensify, exports
to continue
China’s polypropylene (PP) market is expected
to become increasingly imbalanced in 2025,
driven by continued export growth and a decline
in imports.
OUTLOOK ’25: China BD
supply and demand to increase, exports to
balance market
In 2025, butadiene (BD) capacity in China will
expand and supply tightness in the local market
is expected to ease compared with 2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia ACN
supply growth to outpace demand, margins under
pressure
The acrylonitrile (ACN) market is likely to
face another challenging year for regional
producers with oversupply and competition from
China to keep the wider Asia market under
pressure.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia BDO
remains a buyer’s market amid
oversupply
The Asia 1,4-butanediol (BDO) market is
expected to come under even more pressure, with
capacities in China still increasing and demand
not keeping up with the expansions.
OUTLOOK ’25: China BDO to
remain mired in supply glut
China’s supply surplus in 1,4-butanediol (BDO)
is expected to extend into 2025 amid a heavy
schedule of new capacities – a situation that
is likely to see domestic suppliers press for
new solutions.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PBT
demand weakness continues, capacities stay
idled
In 2024, the Asian polybutylene terephthalate
(PBT) market saw regional producers facing more
competition from China-origin materials due to
overcapacity there.
OUTLOOK ’25: Uneven
automotive sector growth weighs on Asia
synthetic rubber demand
Import demand for various synthetic rubber
grades in Asia – from styrene-butadiene-rubber
(SBR), polybutadiene rubber (PBR) to
acrylonitrile-butadiene-rubber (NBR) – will
lean on how recovery and growth of major
downstream industries behave.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PX
looks to downstream demand growth, gasoline
markets
The paraxylene (PX) markets in Asia may fare
better in 2025 than in 2024 due to capacity
expansions in the downstream purified
terephthalic acid (PTA) sector amid controlled
run rates at PX facilities.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia MX to
face persistent headwinds from lackluster
derivatives demand
The Asia mixed xylenes (MX) market is likely to
see an extension of its existing demand
struggles and bearish market sentiment going
into 2025, with limited significant fundamental
upturn expected in the long run.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia SM
market focuses on China exports, contract-spot
trade-offs
For Asia’s styrene monomer (SM) market players,
the year 2024 was marked by squeezed margins,
slow consumption recovery and a gradually
transforming trade landscape.
OUTLOOK ’25: China
styrene expansion slows, all eyes on trade
flows
The pace of styrene capacity expansion in China
is expected to slow in 2025, with only four
units being put into operation including
Shandong Chambroad Petrochemicals, Shandong
Yulong PC, PetroChina Jilin and PetroChina
Guangxi.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PS/EPS
to see further competition and track SM
changes
Despite slow global end-consumption recovery
for polystyrene (PS) and expandable polystyrene
(EPS), Asian suppliers’ margins remained at
workable levels, with production adjustment and
flexible inventory management in second-half
2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia benzene to begin new year on
upbeat note
The benzene markets in Asia are expected to
rebound in H1 2025 from the traditional
slowdown seen in Q4 2024, on the back demand
drivers from both the East and the West.
OUTLOOK ’25: China benzene to remain tightly
balanced, supply growth to lag demand
China’s benzene market is expected to remain
tightly balanced into 2025 on expectations of a
rise in both supply and demand, although supply
tightness may ease next year compared with
2024.
OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia toluene market gears up for
volatility, demand likely modest
Asia toluene markets are bracing for a
challenging trading environment, amid
anticipated moderate demand in the first half
of 2025 and increased supply.
OUTLOOK ’25: China toluene seeks export
opportunities amid subsiding gasoline
demand
The average price of China toluene during
January-November 2024 fell by around 4%
compared to the full-year average in 2023,
according to ICIS data.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PET capacity additions to
slow; trade flow shift continues
Asia’s polyethylene terephthalate (PET) new
capacity expansions are expected to slow down
in 2025, while the global trade flow may shift
further with more trade restrictions against
Chinese exports.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PTA supply growth to outstrip
demand, margins under pressure
The purified terephthalic acid (PTA) market is
expected to face a challenging year in 2025,
with further expansion in supply, while demand
is likely unable to catch up with the supply
growth.
OUTLOOK ’25: China PTA supply glut to increase
despite slowing capacity expansion
The capacity growth of China’s purified
terephthalic acid (PTA) is expected to slow to
about 8.3 million tonnes/year in 2025, down
from 11.25 million tonnes/year in 2023. The
2024 capacity addition of 7.2 million
tonnes/year was also lower than the 2023 level.
OUTLOOK ‘25: China MEG market to see limited
new capacities, slowing demand growth
Planned new China monoethylene glycol (MEG)
capacity for 2025 is still relatively limited,
and fundamentals may not exert significant
pressure, providing some support to the MEG
market.
OUTLOOK ’25: China DEG supply remains high,
cautious outlook for demand
Despite a lack of new capacity, domestic
diethylene glycol (DEG) output still rose
sharply in 2024 driven by improved co-product
monoethylene glycol (MEG) margins.
OUTLOOK ’25: China’s capro self-sufficiency
reshapes Asia trade
The caprolactam (capro) market in the
Asia-Pacific region in 2024 saw China achieve
self-sufficiency as it shifted its trade status
from a net importer to a net exporter. China
looks to solidify its position as a key
exporter in the region with an additional
600,000 tonnes/year of capro capacity to come
online in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: China strengthens position in
Asia-Pacific nylon trade
The Asia-Pacific nylon market in 2024 saw
demand grow largely in the Chinese domestic
market due to increased demand for industrial
plastics.
OUTLOOK ’25: China caps ACN run rates, looks to
increase exports
The supply of acrylonitrile (ACN) in China’s
domestic market is expected to increase
significantly in 2025, especially because
Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical (ZRCC)
and Sinochem Quanzhou are due to start up new
units in the first half of the year.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia EDC suppliers to focus on
contractual commitments amid suppressed
demand
Asia’s ethylene dichloride (EDC) spot market is
expected to remain structurally thin into 2025
due to lackluster downstream performance.
OUTLOOK ’25: Mideast PVC trade shifts expected
amid India ADDs, China supply growth
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) supply is expected to
improve in the coming year with new capacities
to the tune of 2 million tonnes slated to come
online in China.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia caustic soda demand growth
likely to be uneven
Asia’s caustic soda spot market holds an
optimistic demand outlook for certain markets,
but players acknowledge that difficulties
remain as market players head into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Producers tweak Asia VAM plants as
China supply-demand rebalances
Tightening supply is expected to support vinyl
acetate monomer (VAM) spot prices in Asia amid
differing downstream demand outlooks for China
and other major Asia markets.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia MMA trade flows shift
significantly
The winds of change are blowing hard for the
methyl methacrylate (MMA) industry in Asia,
with market players having witnessed
significant shifts in trade flows and price
influences in 2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: China MMA to face export
opportunities amid capacity changes
worldwide
Global supply and demand growth for methyl
methacrylate (MMA) is expected to be roughly
balanced in 2025, with capacity growth mainly
concentrated in China and the US.
OUTLOOK ’25: New capacity to weigh on Asia
phenol/acetone market
Asia’s phenol/acetone to feedstock spread may
remain in the negative territory for the fourth
consecutive year amid new capacities and a
gloomy demand outlook even as the industry
undergoes capacity consolidation.
OUTLOOK ’25: China phenol to face persistent
supply-demand challenges
China’s phenol capacity will continue to expand
in 2025, but this will meet limited demand
increases due to downstream margin pressure.
OUTLOOK ’25: China’s acetone market to see
increases in both supply and demand
In 2025, both supply and demand for acetone in
China are expected to increase, but there are
market concerns that issues in some downstream
sectors may limit the actual demand growth.
OUTLOOK ’25: China to dominate growth of Asia
EVA supply, demand
2024 marked the year that China shifted to
lower imports of ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA),
and 2025 is set to see capacity additions in
China increasingly meet demand growth – mainly
from the downstream photovoltaics (PV) sector.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PO imports demand likely to
weaken further
Asia’s propylene oxide (PO) import markets are
likely to face further weakening in demand in
2025, with supply in China set to lengthen.
OUTLOOK’25: China PO market faces challenge of
oversupply
China’s propylene oxide (PO) capacity is
expected to continue to grow in 2025 even as
downstream capacity expands. Players largely
hold the view oversupply will continue.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia polyols demand outlook mixed
but pessimism dominant
Demand in the Asian region for slabstock
polyether polyols is expected to be flat for
the first half of 2025, with the outlook for H2
hazy but largely pessimistic.
OUTLOOK ’25: Middle East polyols face supply
pressures
The Middle East polyols markets are expected to
remain under pressure in 2025 due to persistent
excess supply, relatively weak demand, and
ongoing supply chain disruptions. These
challenges are compounded by the addition of
new polyols and propylene oxide (PO)
capacities, macroeconomic uncertainties, and
the volatility of upstream feedstock markets.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia isocyanates demand likely
hampered, supply lengthy
Asian import markets of methylene diphenyl
diisocyanate (MDI) and toluene diioscyanate
(TDI) are set to face lengthy supply in 2025,
and the downstream sectors are likely to
continue facing headwinds.
OUTLOOK ’25: Middle East isocyanates face
demand, freight challenges
In 2024, the isocyanates market in the Middle
East experienced significant disruptions in
shipping and supply chains due to a prolonged
regional conflict. Despite these challenges,
imports of polymeric methylene diphenyl
diisocyanate (PMDI) increased year on year,
while export volumes remained steady. Toluene
diisocyanate (TDI) trade volumes were largely
stable across both imports and exports.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asian PC market downturn to
persist
Asia’s polycarbonate (PC) market is expected to
remain downbeat in the next quarter as import
demand is anticipated to be subdued but
supplies will stay persistently high.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia’s bisphenol A market faces
challenges in 2025
Asia’s bisphenol A (BPA) market will remain
hampered by ample supplies and weak demand
through the first quarter of 2025 as trade wars
impact exports of countries involved in the
conflict and further erode consumer confidence.
OUTLOOK ’25: China BPA capacity to expand
further, export outlets sought
New Chinese bisphenol A (BPA) capacities are
expected to come into operation in 2025, which
may reduce the country’s reliance on imports
and help China turn into a major exporter to
broader Asia.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia’s MA demand anticipated to
pick up in Q1 on stimulus measures
Asia’s maleic anhydride (MA) demand is expected
to strengthen in early 2025 on restocking ahead
of the Lunar New Year holidays. China’s planned
economic stimulus measures to boost its
domestic economy is likely to lend positive
support to MA demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: SE Asia to drive phthalic
anhydride demand in early 2025
Sellers of lower priced Chinese origin phthalic
anhydride (PA) material are expected to focus
on southeast Asia post Lunar New Year, where
demand is expected to remain firm in the first
quarter of 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: China plasticizers demand to
remain subdued amid ample domestic
supply
China’s import market for
plasticizers will likely continue to see thin
trade in 2025, as demand for imports has
steadily dwindled amid ample domestic supplies.
OUTLOOK ’25: China 2-EH to face supply-demand
headwinds in Q1
China’s 2-ethyl hexanol (2-EH) market will face
a challenging year in 2025, particularly in the
first quarter, as a result of more ample supply
and uncertainty in downstream demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia to become net MIBK exporter
in new year
An excess methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK)
capacity emerging in Asia has dampened spot
prices in the region and widened the arbitrage
for trade across the Atlantic heading into
2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia acetic acid supply glut to
balloon on capacity expansion
Asia acetic acid supply is likely to outstrip
demand on the back of China’s significant
capacity growth into 2025, prompting producers
to review regional plant run rates and supply
contracts.
OUTLOOK ‘25: China acetic acid to rely on cost
support amid supply growth
While China’s acetic acid market experienced
fluctuations in 2024 , the mismatch in the
growth of upstream and downstream capacities
allowed acetic acid suppliers to maintain
relatively healthy margins for most of the
time.
OUTLOOK ’25: China acrylic acid supply to rise,
exports and run rates monitored
China’s acrylic acid market is expected to see
increasing supply in 2025 due to start-ups of
new plants, and participants may turn their
attention to the export market in the face of
weak growth potential in domestic demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: China NBA supply to remain
limited, demand to pick up in Q1
China’s domestic n-butanol (NBA) supply may
remain tight in the first quarter of 2025, due
to no unit start-up plans, multiple scheduled
maintenance outages and low import volumes,
while the launch of new downstream capacities
may boost demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: Lack of demand outlets may limit
growth for Asia adipic acid
Asia’s adipic acid markets have been through a
tough 2024 on both demand and supply fronts.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia LAB remains stagnant,
continues to underperform mid-cut fatty
alcohols
The Asia linear alkylbenzene (LAB) market
remained mostly flat in the fourth quarter of
2024, and the malaise in the market looks set
to continue into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia ABS, SAN to start year on
upbeat note
The acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and
styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) markets in Asia are
expected to start the new year on an upbeat
note after festivity-driven trades, amid
caution about possible tariffs on exports to
the US.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia melamine demand could gain
momentum, H2 ’25 capacity additions
monitored
Asia’s melamine market could see some support
in early 2025 from improving demand in China’s
export market as buyers replenish inventories
ahead of the Lunar New Year at end-January.
OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia IPA margin pressure to
persist amid new capacity
Isopropanol (IPA) makers in Asia are bracing
for a challenging start to 2025 as production
margins remain poor and upcoming new capacity
in China could disrupt market balance.
OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia MEK tight supply may ease;
cost pressure to persist
Asia’s methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) markets
gleaned support from tightened China supply in
H2 December.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia glycol
ethers face demand headwinds, BG may tighten in
Q2
The butyl glycol (BG) markets in Asia could see
ample supply against a backdrop of tepid demand
in Q1 2025, but supply could tighten in Q2.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia ECH,
LER oversupply to endure, ADD investigations to
shape trade flows
Asia’s epichlorohydrin (ECH) and liquid epoxy
resins (LER) markets will continue to grapple
with regional oversupply, while antidumping
duty (ADD) investigations of Asian LER makers
in the US and Europe will shape trade flows.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia fatty
acids demand to remain tepid in Q1 on upstream
oil palm volatility
Asia’s fatty acids demand for the first quarter
of 2025 is expected to be tepid, due to
volatility in the upstream oil palm complex and
weak consumer confidence.
OUTLOOK ’25: Volatile
feedstock to weigh on Asia fatty alcohol
mid-cuts in Q1
Buyers and sellers of fatty alcohols mid-cuts
in Asia are expected to tussle over the
market’s trajectory in the first quarter of
2025 amid volatile feedstock palm kernel oil
(PKO) prices.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia
glycerine Q1 supply may rise on Indonesia
mandate
Asia’s glycerine supply may increase in the
first quarter of 2025 as Indonesia is poised to
increase its biodiesel mandate to B40 in
January 2025, up from B35 in 2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia soap
noodles demand tepid in Q1 on upstream
volatility
Asia’s soap noodles demand is likely to remain
tepid in the first quarter of 2025 amid
expected continued volatility in upstream crude
palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel oil (PKO)
markets.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia FAE
demand to remain tepid in Q1 amid squeezed
margins
Asia’s demand for fatty alcohol ethoxylates
(FAE) is likely to remain stable in the first
quarter of 2025, but spot offers may be revised
up due to squeezed margins.
OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia Group
II/III base oils supply to rise, demand to
improve from March
An increase in the supply of Asia Group II base
oils is expected to gain traction from around
mid-2025, with supply of heavy grade 500/600N
likely to remain relatively tighter than that
of light grade 150N.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia Group I
base oils to navigate supply
tightness
Entering into 2025, structural supply tightness
of Group I base oils will remain the key market
driver. Where substitution is more
likely, such as for SN150 and SN500, price
dynamics will also depend on supply length for
Group II 150N and 500N. On the other hand,
brightstock availability will be a challenge
amid supply disruptions in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: China base
oils demand unlikely to rebound sharply;
imports to fall further
Overall demand for base oils in China is
unlikely to improve significantly in 2025,
because the domestic economy will still face
challenges. Base oils imports have been in a
downtrend since 2020, and the market share of
domestically produced cargoes has been
continuously rising, which will extend into
2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia’s
oxo-alcohols market braces for oversupply,
squeezed margins
Asia’s oxo-alcohols spot markets are poised for
a rocky year ahead due to oversupply and weak
derivative margins, while a large buy-sell gap
between Chinese buyers and Asian exporters will
likely lead to more merchant volumes.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia AA,
acrylates to see increased competition, slow
demand growth
The Asia glacial acrylic acid (AA) and
acrylates market is going to see capacity
expanding at a faster pace in 2025 than the
expected demand growth in Asia.
OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia etac,
butac demand skewed towards conservative in H1
2025
Asia ethyl acetate (etac) and butyl acetate
(butac) markets are bracing for a challenging
demand landscape over the first half of 2025,
factoring in supply length and macroeconomic
concerns.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia
chemical freight unlikely to stir in Q1
2025
The chemical tanker market in Asia is expected
to soften into Q1 2025, with lackluster demand
persisting amid a likely warmer winter in the
northern hemisphere.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia
methanol demand still uncertain amid new
capacities
The outlook for methanol in Asia continues to
be uncertain, with factors such as additional
capacity, seasonal gas issues and upcoming
downstream demand expected to play a role in
this.
OUTLOOK ’25: China’s
methanol demand growth may outpace supply
increase amid slowing expansion
China’s methanol market may remain balanced to
tight in the first half of 2025, as supply
increase may fall behind demand growth, but
domestic and overseas supply are expected to
sustain modest growth.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia MTBE
demand to depend on gasoline, China’s
oversupply remains
The outlook for Asian methyl tertiary butyl
ether (MTBE) remains uncertain, with factors
such as added supply in China, volatility in
crude prices and demand for gasoline expected
to impact market movements in the coming
months.
OUTLOOK ’25: China MTBE
supply-demand imbalance to intensify, exports
remain key
More capacity expansions and a lack of growth
in gasoline blending amid sluggish domestic
gasoline demand will keep methyl tertiary butyl
ether (MTBE) producers in China under heavy
pressure to maintain domestic sales in 2025,
with exports still their main area for growth
momentum.
OUTLOOK ‘25: China
titanium dioxide makers poised for challenges
ahead
Players in Asia’s spot titanium dioxide (TiO2)
market are set to start the new year with two
big questions.
Global News + ICIS Chemical Business (ICB)
See the full picture, with unlimited access to ICIS chemicals news across all markets and regions, plus ICB, the industry-leading magazine for the chemicals industry.
Contact us
Partnering with ICIS unlocks a vision of a future you can trust and achieve. We leverage our unrivalled network of industry experts to deliver a comprehensive market view based on independent and reliable data, insight and analytics.
Contact us to learn how we can support you as you transact today and plan for tomorrow.
READ MORE
