Brazil’s grain harvest expected at record 322 million tonnes, up 8%
Jonathan Lopez
22-Jan-2025
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s fertilizers-intensive agricultural sector is expected to produce 322.3 million of grains, pulses, and oilseeds in the 2024-2025 harvest, up 8.2% year on year, according to the National Supply Company (Conab).
Soybean production will continue dominating Brazil’s agro sector as exports are expected to keep rising, with a sharp recovery in output after a lower-than-expected harvest in the previous period.
In 2024-2025, Brazil’s is expected to produce more than 166 million tonnes of soybean, up by more than 11% from the prior harvest.
The country’s warm weather and its fertile land allows for two harvests a year in some grains, such as corn for which total production is expected at 119.6 million tonnes in 2024/2025, up 3.3%.
Rice output is also expected to rise sharply in the current cycle, up 13.2% to 11.99 million.
The 2023-2024 cycle was greatly disrupted by weather events such the historic floods in Rio Grande do Sul state in May 2024 as well as high temperatures and a severe drought in other parts of the country.
In 2024, Brazil’s harvest stood at 292.7 million tonnes, down 7.2% from 2023.
“After a year of crop failure, the current cycle tends to recover the average productivity of crops. For this season, an average yield of 3,509 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) is expected, compared to 3,201 kg/ha recorded in 2023/2024,” said Conab.
“The planting of the oilseed occurred in a concentrated manner, mainly from the end of October. As a result, the harvest should also occur, for the most part, from the end of January. The weather conditions, in the period analyzed, have been favorable for the crop so far.”
WORLD BREADBASKET
After
dips in the previous cycle, Brazil’s grain
exports, which have made it a key breadbasket
for the world’s markets, are expected to regain
much of the ground lost.
In 2024-2025, soybean exports are expected at 105.47 million tonnes, up from the prior cycle’s 98.6 million tonnes. Among others, China is one of the key consumers of Brazilian soybean, which the country uses mostly to feed livestock.
Corn exports are expected to fall as domestic consumption rises, said Conab, with shipments overseas expected at 34 million tonnes, down from 38.5 million tonnes – the result of a higher, 86.4 million tonnes consumption by Brazilian consumers, up from 83.57 million tonnes in the previous cycle.
“An important addition to rice on Brazilians’ plates, total bean production is also expected to grow by 4.9%, estimated at 3.4 million tonnes, the second largest harvest in the last 15 years, behind only the 2013/2014 season,” said Conab.
“The result reflects both the increase in area and productivity. In the first legume harvest alone, the harvest is expected to increase by 15.5%, estimated at just over 1 million tonnes. The harvest of this first cycle of the crop is underway, with 19.4% completed in the first week of January.”
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