Taiwan crackers to run at 60-70% of capacity in 2025 – PIAT

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Taiwan’s ethylene crackers are expected to run at 60-70% of capacity on average this year amid heightened regional competition and weak downstream demand, according to the Petrochemical Industry Association of Taiwan (PIAT).

Economic uncertainty, US tariffs and geopolitical risk are pressure points for the industry, the industry body said in a report released at the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025 on 15-16 May in Bangkok.

Taiwan’s ethylene capacity is about 4.0 million tonnes; while its propylene capacity is about 3.4 million tonnes, according to PIAT.

Despite a potential short-term rebound in prices for Taiwan’s petrochemical sector in 2025, continued capacity extensions in China will “intensify market price competition”, PIAT said.

For 2025, it forecasts a 2.7% growth for both supply and demand of ethylene, with a projected 61% surge in exports.

Propylene, on the other hand, is expected to post a 2.2% contraction in both supply and demand, with exports expected to more than double.

Ethylene	(in tonnes)	2024	2025 (estimated)	change
Supply	Production	2,596,243	2,650,000	2.1%
	Import	228,176	250,000	9.6%
	Total	2,824,419	2,900,000	2.7%
Demand	Domestic	2,818,820	2,891,000	2.6%
	Export	5,599	9,000	60.8%
	Total	2,824,419	2,900,000	2.7%
Year End Capacity (tonnes/year)		4,005,000	4,005,000
Propylene	(in tonnes)	2024	2025 (estimated)	change
Supply	Production	2,315,130	2,363,700	2.1%
	Import	309,100	202,600	-34.5%
	Total	2,624,230	2,566,300	-2.2%
Demand	Domestic	2,566,418	2,400,500	-6.5%
	Export	57,812	165,800	186.8%
	Total	2,624,230	2,566,300	-2.2%
Year End Capacity (tonnes/year)		3,370,500	3,370,500

Source: PIAT

China is expected to increase its 2025 ethylene capacity by approximately 7.8 million tonnes, or by 15%, to 60.99 million tonnes.

But ethylene derivative consumption is expected to grow at a slower rate of 12.6%, and ethylene demand is expected to rise by just 6%, PIAT said, posing a challenge for neighboring suppliers that have historically relied on exports to China.

Taiwanese producers have either reduced operating rates or remained idle over the past three years, while ethylene exports to China dropped to zero last year.

“Given weak downstream demand and regional competition, cracker utilization rates are expected to average 60%-70% in 2025,” PIAT said in the report.

Meanwhile, Taiwan’s demand for propylene is expected to weaken further due to weak downstream demand, particularly for polypropylene (PP) and epichlorohydrin (ECH).

China’s ongoing capacity expansion also continues to pressure Taiwanese producers, said the PIAT.

Since 2024, Taiwan’s propylene exports to China have been subject to tariffs, posing a challenge for accessing the Chinese market.

According to PIAT data, major petrochemical production dropped 2.39%, exports were down by 4.3% and demand fell by 1.1% in 2024 from the previous year.

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Thumbnail image At the port city of Keelung, Taiwan on 20 March 2025. (RITCHIE B TONGO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)