INSIGHT: India anchors PVC future amid global market re-alignment

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s vinyl industry is entering a new era of accelerated growth and global relevance as it emerges as the single-largest contributor to global polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand expansion, even as the broader chemical industry faces overcapacity and trade re-alignments.

• India leads global PVC demand growth through 2030
• Rising imports, Chinese dominance raise trade and dumping concerns
• Domestic capacity, infrastructure push support long-term market expansion

At the Vinyl India 2025 conference held in Mumbai, senior executives and market watchers outlined India’s evolving role in global petrochemical dynamics, particularly as its PVC consumption is projected to double by 2030, fueled by urbanization, infrastructure programs, and a burgeoning middle class.

The south Asian country is set to become the world’s second-largest economy by 2050 based on analysts’ projections.

Its economic rise is bringing the PVC industry into sharper focus as a key enabler of infrastructure transformation.

“PVC is no longer just a material; it’s an infrastructure backbone,” said Unmesh Nayak, polymer chain president at Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd.

From pipes, cables, and fittings to flooring and films, vinyl products are essential to India’s economic growth.

STRUCTURAL SHIFT IN GLOBAL CHLOR-ALKALI MARKETS
While India’s PVC demand outlook remains bullish, global chlor-alkali players are navigating complex shifts in supply-demand dynamics.

A senior industry executive noted that caustic soda demand remains resilient due to its wide industrial use, while chlorine – which is primarily linked to PVC production – faces higher volatility and weaker margins.

Following price spikes for caustic soda, chlorine and PVC in 2021–2022, new investments – particularly in Asia – have triggered capacity overbuild, with a long market expected through to 2029. This imbalance is expected to benefit PVC buyers but continue to strain global margins.

Meanwhile, India’s energy imports, logistics costs, and new tariff structures are altering traditional trade flows.

US Gulf Coast vinyl exports face mounting challenges, even as India steps up to absorb rising global supply.

PVC TRADE FLOWS REBALANCE AMID GLOBAL GLUT
According to market experts, the global PVC market is set to grow by 16 million tonnes by 2034, a near one-third increase from 2024 levels. However, the center of gravity is shifting.

While China remains the largest demand driver, its role in capacity additions is waning. India, southeast Asia, and the Middle East are rising as new hubs.

India is expected to post the highest compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in PVC demand globally, backed by growth in construction, water management, and mobility. However, trade imbalances are creating new risks.

Chinese producers are increasingly exporting PVC in the form of finished goods – films, rods, sticks – nearly doubling exports to India since 2019.

Today, 95% of India’s PVC product imports come from China, raising concerns over the health of the domestic downstream industry.

“China is exporting its overcapacity through products, not resin,” noted the industry analyst. “This is easing domestic supply pressures in China but creating dependency risks for India.”

INDIA STRUCTURAL DEMAND OUTLOOK REMAINS ROBUST
Despite global headwinds, India’s structural story remains intact.

Tricon Energy president & CEO Ignacio Torras outlined how China’s chemical capacity has outpaced demand, with nearly 20% of its PVC capacity idle due to a real estate slowdown.

In stark contrast, India’s PVC consumption is on a steep upward curve.

“India has electrified every corner, internet access has reached 70% of the population, and 150 million more people will join the middle class within five years,” he said. “These trends will directly translate to PVC demand.”

India’s per capita PVC use is expected to rise from 2.6 to 5.0 kilogram (kg) by 2030, still well below China’s 16 kg – indicating significant headroom for growth.

Even amid margin pressure, as tracked by Tricon’s internal index, the executive maintained that India offers scale, resilience, and long-term opportunity.

GROWTH BUT NOT WITHOUT CHALLENGES
While the outlook is positive, challenges loom. Stakeholders repeatedly highlighted the need for:

Tariff safeguards to prevent dumping of cheap PVC and derivatives

Investment in downstream manufacturing to reduce reliance on finished product imports

Policy and institutional reforms to support rapid infrastructure rollout

Circularity and ESG (environment, social, governance) compliance, as sustainability becomes central to investment decisions

The National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) and other public sector initiatives are playing a catalytic role, but speakers emphasized that regulatory consistency and private-public coordination will be key to unlocking India’s full vinyl potential.

As the global industry braces for a prolonged phase of overcapacity and price volatility, India offers a unique growth engine – one that could reshape demand dynamics in both resin and downstream vinyl markets.

Insight article by Aswin Kondapally

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