Atlantic hurricane season begins 1 June; first storm could emerge mid-May

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Meteorologists at AccuWeather are predicting a dynamic 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins 1 June, but noted that the first tropical storm of the year could emerge in just a couple of weeks.

“Around the middle of May, a large, slow-spinning area in the atmosphere could develop somewhere around Central America, overlapping with part of the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean,” Brian Lada, meteorologist and senior content editor, said. “This phenomenon, known as the Central American Gyre, can sometimes lay the groundwork for a tropical depression or tropical storm to take shape.”

AccuWeather said this is the best chance so far this year for the first named tropical storm of 2025 to develop, both in the Caribbean and in the eastern Pacific, although meteorologists currently say the odds of development are low.

Tropical storms and hurricanes pose significant risks to the North American petrochemical industry because many of the nation’s plants and refineries are along the US Gulf Coast in the states of Texas and Louisiana.

They can also disrupt oil and gas production in the US Gulf. In 2022, oil and natural gas production in the US Gulf accounted for about 15% of total US crude oil production and about 2% of total US dry natural gas production, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Even the threat of a major storm can disrupt oil and natural gas supplies because companies often evacuate US Gulf platforms as a precaution.

While the season runs from 1 June to 30 November, September has seen the most tropical depressions since 2000, as shown in the following chart.

The chart also shows that it is not that uncommon to see tropical depressions in May.

2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
AccuWeather predicts 13-18 named storms, with 7-10 likely to become hurricanes and 3-5 of those being major hurricanes, as shown in the following table.

The meteorological firm is predicting 3-6 of the hurricanes to have direct impacts to the US.

Hurricanes are rated using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, numbered from 1 to 5, based on a hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speeds, with a Category 5 storm being the strongest.

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Category	Wind speed
1	74-95 miles/hour
2	96-110 miles/hour
3	111-129 miles/hour
4	130-156 miles/hour
5	157+ miles/hour

Meteorologists also warn that the season could be like 2024 when several “super-charged” storms caused damage and loss of life.

In 2024, Beryl entered the record books as the earliest Category 5 on record, Helene pummeled the southeast US with catastrophic rain and flooding, and Milton tore across Florida with deadly flooding and dozens of tornadoes.

AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said one of the biggest factors for tropical development in 2025 is the abundance of warm water available to fuel storms.

Water temperatures across the ocean, as well as in the Gulf and Caribbean, are already well above historical averages and will continue to run warm throughout most of the year. This will prime storms for explosive development.

“A rapid intensification of storms will likely be a major story yet again this year as sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content (OHC) across most of the basin are forecast to be well above average,” DaSilva said.

The OHC measures not only the temperature of the water but also how deep the warm water extends, DaSilva said. A deep pool of warm water provides much more fuel for hurricanes than a shallow layer of warmth near the ocean’s surface.

AREAS MOST LIKELY FOR HURRICANE LANDFALLS
DaSilva said northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season, as shown in the following map.

“Atlantic Canada and the northeastern Caribbean are also at an increased risk of direct impacts,” DaSilva said.

Colorado State University’s Weather and Climate Research department said in its initial forecast on 3 April it is predicting 17 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes and four of them becoming major hurricanes.

CSU will update its forecast on 11 June, 9 July, and 6 August.

A hurricane season forecast is expected soon from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).