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HOUSTON (ICIS)–Canadian fertilizer producer Nutrien announced it is evaluating Geismar, Louisiana as the site to build the world’s largest clean ammonia facility, which it estimates could achieve output of 1.2m tonnes/year. The producer said the plan would build on the company’s expertise in low-carbon ammonia production and that clean ammonia will be manufactured using innovative technology to achieve at least a 90% reduction in CO2 emissions. Nutrien said the project will proceed to the front-end engineering design (FEED) phase, with a final investment decision expected in 2023. If approved, construction of the approximately $2bn facility would begin in 2024 with full production expected by 2027. The producer said the new clean ammonia plant would leverage low-cost natural gas, tidewater access to world markets, and high-quality carbon capture and sequestration infrastructure at its existing Geismar facility to serve growing demand in agriculture, industrial and energy markets. The plant is expected to be able to permanently sequester more than 1.8m tonnes of CO2 in dedicated geological storage each year. The company said the new plant will use auto thermal reforming technology to achieve the lowest carbon footprint of any plant at this scale and has the potential to transition to net-zero emissions with future modifications. “Our commitment to the development and use of both low-carbon and clean ammonia is prominent in our strategy to provide solutions that will help meet the world’s decarbonization goals, while sustainably addressing global food insecurity,” said Ken Seitz, Nutrien’s interim president and CEO. “Leadership in clean ammonia production will play a key role in achieving our 2030 Scope 1 and 2 emissions reduction goals, as part of our Feeding the Future Plan.” Nutrien said it has signed a term sheet with Denbury Inc. that would allow for expansion of the existing volume of carbon sequestration capability in the immediate vicinity at Geismar if selected as the final site of construction. Nutrien has also signed a letter of intent to collaborate with Mitsubishi Corporation for offtake of up to 40% of expected production to deliver to the Asian fuel market, including Japan, once construction is complete.

NEW YORK (ICIS)–A massive pile-up in inventories at key US big-box retailers may be a warning sign for chemicals demand, which has partly been propped up by the overbooking of orders. Walmart and Target disappointing Q1 results show huge inventory builds Retailers to start unwinding stocks through next couple quarters Retail destocking to trickle down to chemicals demand The Q1 downside earnings shocker at No 1 US retailer Walmart on 17 May was followed up by much of the same at Target on 18 May. The main culprit? A huge inventory build-up, as the companies misjudged consumer demand for certain products. Inflation was also a factor in the higher inventory numbers. Logistics tangles didn’t help either, as some products arrived too early and others too late. Walmart’s Q1 inventories rose 8.3% from Q4 2021 and a stunning 32.0% year on year to $61.2bn. Target’s Q1 inventories were up 8.5% quarter on quarter and 43.1% year on year. The magnitude of the retail earnings misses and huge inventory builds were a key factor in the collapse of the US stock market on 18 May. Chemical equities were also hit hard but suffered less than the overall market. For Walmart, inventories ballooned to 43% of total Q1 sales versus 34% in the year-ago period. Walmart saw US consumer spending shifting away from discretionary items such as apparel, patio furniture and landscaping supplies and more towards food and consumables. “Most of the increased inventory and related costs were related to buying over the past several quarters with a keen focus on in-stock, and now we’re in a short period of rightsizing it,” said Walmart chief financial officer Brett Biggs on the company’s Q1 earnings conference call. INVENTORY UNWIND ON ITS WAYThe period of “aggressive inventory buys” through the past several quarters is now over, and a big inventory unwind is on its way. Target’s inventories stood at 61% of Q1 sales versus 44% from a year ago. It underestimated the magnitude of the consumer shift away from certain goods and towards services, leading to burgeoning inventories in “bulky categories” such as kitchen appliances, TVs and outdoor furniture. These bulkier items tend to have a high chemicals component. Home and kitchen appliances use plastics such as polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), which have largely replaced metals, ceramics and glass for electrical appliances such as food blenders, according to website Kitchen Buds. TVs likewise use ABS and high impact PS (HIPS), along with polycarbonate (PC) and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA). Outdoor furniture such as tables, chairs, benches and table lamps contain a good amount of high density polyethylene (HDPE) as well as PMMA. Target sees consumer spending instead shifting to categories such as food and beverage, beauty and personal care, and household essentials. “Our team is focused on doing everything necessary to ensure we enter the fall season with an appropriate level of inventory by category,” said Michael Fiddelke, chief financial officer of Target. It will likely take several quarters for the big inventory builds to normalise (Walmart also estimates a couple of quarters), and impairments are also probable, especially for seasonal items. GOODS INFLATION MAY EASEOn the bright side, bloated inventories will likely lead to price markdowns as retailers look to move excess stock. Walmart estimates it took a $100m hit to gross profit in Q1 from higher-than-normal markdowns. Management would not quantify potential gross margin impact in the coming quarters. Target likewise marked down items to move inventory in Q1. CONSUMER SPENDING STILL HEALTHYOn a macro level, US retail sales overall rose 0.9% in April from March and was up 8.2% year on year – not surprising given the level of inflation. “A good leading indicator is combined sales for furniture and furnishings (0.7% gain month on month), and electronics and appliances (1.0% gain month on month), and it was a good showing here. Consumers are still in the game,” said ICIS senior economist Kevin Swift. “However, the inventory figures for those companies (Walmart, Target) are worrisome, and could result in destocking,” he added. The US consumer is clearly still spending, and the year-on-year gains in overall sales for both Walmart and Target bear that out. But what is just as clear is that retailers severely overestimated the magnitude of consumer demand for goods – the so-called bulkier goods in particular. It’s shocking to see some of the largest US big box retailers caught so flat-footed on inventory management when you’d expect this to be a core capability. Perhaps it would be slightly less shocking if one paid more attention to ecommerce retailer Amazon’s Q1 earnings results on 28 April where it saw inventories rise 7% from Q4, and 47% year on year to $35.0bn. Shares of Walmart fell 11.4% when it announced earnings on 17 May, and declined a further 6.8% on 18 May. Target’s stock plunged almost 25% on its earnings announcement on 18 May, underscoring the market’s surprise. CHEMICALS TO FEEL DESTOCKING IMPACTUS chemicals companies mostly reported solid Q1 earnings, with essentially no signs of demand destruction even in the face of continuing price hikes. This could be due to customers overbooking orders and continuing to build inventory given the dismal state of the supply chain. Panellists at the 12th ICIS World Surfactants Conference on 10 May indicated that the trend of buyers overbooking to ensure sufficient supply is unlikely to end anytime soon as logistics constraints persist. However, the burgeoning inventories at big box retailers may be the canary in the coal mine. As retailers wind down inventories in the quarters ahead, this impact should start to be felt down the supply chain, all the way down to chemicals and plastics. Insight article by Joseph Chang Thumbnail shows a store. Image by Andy Wong/AP/REX/Shutterstock

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US-listed shares of chemical companies fell on Wednesday as the general stock market posted steep declines after retailers complained about rising costs. The table shows the major indices followed by ICIS. 18-May Change % Dow Jones Industrial Average 31,490.07 -1,164.52 -3.57% S&P 500 3,923.77 -165.08 -4.04% Dow Jones US Chemicals Index 837.06 -24.01 -2.79% S&P 500 Chemicals Industry Index 838.59 -23.77 -2.76% Stocks fell after major US retailer Target reported its Q1 earnings. Its operating margin rate was 5.3%, well below expectations because of the company’s efforts to reduce excess inventory as well as higher costs for freight and transportation, the company said. For the second quarter, the operating margin should remain low, varying  widely from 5.3%, the company said. For all of 2022, the operating income margin rate should be 6%. For comparison, Target expects its long-term margin to be at least 8%. Shares of Target fell by nearly 25%. On Tuesday, US retailer Walmart said in its Q1 earnings report that inflation in the US, especially for food and fuel, put more pressure on the company’s margin mix and operating costs than it expected. For the first quarter, operating expenses as a percentage of net sales rose by 45 basis points, mainly because of higher wages in Walmart’s US operations. Walmart lowered its earnings guidance for the second quarter and for the full year. Walmart shares have fallen by more than 17% in the past five days. Rising costs and excess inventory could slow down demand for goods – although most chemical companies had not noted any demand destruction when they discussed their first-quarter earnings. Attempts to lower inflation by the Federal Reserve could slow down the economy as well. It raised its benchmark interest rate by half a point at its last meeting in May, and similar hikes are expected for the rest of the year. The following table shows the US-listed shares of chemical companies followed by ICIS. Name $ Current Price $ Change % Change AdvanSix 45.97 -1.24 -2.62 Avient 47.09 -1.15 -2.37 Axalta Coating Systems 25.47 -1.00 -3.78 Braskem 17.09 -0.83 -4.63 Celanese 150.85 -4.66 -3.00 Dow 68.74 -1.23 -1.76 DuPont 64.29 -2.12 -3.19 Eastman 103.84 -3.07 -2.87 HB Fuller 66.91 -0.12 -0.19 Huntsman 35.57 -0.95 -2.60 Ingevity 67.48 -0.23 -0.34 Kronos Worldwide 16.43 0.00 0.00 LyondellBasell 110.20 -1.20 -1.08 Methanex 49.78 -1.28 -2.50 NewMarket 336.04 -3.79 -1.12 Olin 62.89 -2.34 -3.59 PPG 119.40 -4.93 -3.97 RPM International 84.22 -2.66 -3.06 Sherwin-Williams 258.51 -10.75 -3.99 Stepan 107.67 -0.63 -0.58 Chemours 41.39 -1.43 -3.34 Trinseo 45.44 -0.64 -1.39 Tronox 17.66 -0.70 -3.81 Univar Solutions 28.38 -0.66 -2.26 Venator Materials 1.76 -0.11 -5.88 Westlake 130.95 -5.34 -3.92 Thumbnail shows a stock-market chart. Image by Shutterstock. 

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Verde AgriTech has released the results of its pre-feasibility study for the Cerrado Verde project in Brazil, which outlines plans for a third plant at the site and replaces the prior study completed in December 2017. Currently Verde operates Plant 1 with a capacity of 600,000 tonnes per year with Plant 2 on track for commissioning in Q3 with an additional annual capacity of 2.4m tonnes. Plant 3 is expected to add 10m tonnes/year at a cost of $52.77m with construction currently planned to begin in 2023. Verde said the cost of Plant 3 is expected to be covered by accumulated cashflow generated by sales up to Q2 2023, without need for equity or debt financing. The study presented Verde with three distinct production scenarios with the first being annual production of 10m tonnes/year, which would represent 13.51% of the Brazilian potash market demand projected for 2025. The second case was for output of 23m tonnes, which would be an estimated 31.07% of the Brazilian demand projected for 2025. The last scenario would see there be annual production of 50m tonnes, which would be approximately 54.97% of the estimated market demand for 2030. The mineral resource from this study remains unchanged from the 2017 version with there being a combined measured and indicated mineral resource of 1.47bn tonnes at 9.28% potash grade and an inferred mineral resource of 1.85bn tonnes at 8.60% potash grade. Currently Brazil ranks second in the world for potash consumption but is first in terms of imports as the country relies on inbound shipments for more than 96% of its potash needs.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US-listed shares of chemical companies were trading down sharply midday on Wednesday as the general stock market posted even steeper declines as retailers complained about rising costs. The table shows the major indices followed by ICIS. 18-May Change % Dow Jones Industrial Average 31,591.66 -1,062.93 -3.26% S&P 500 3,938.06 -150.79 -3.69% Dow Jones US Chemicals Index 840.87 -20.2 -2.35% S&P 500 Chemicals Industry Index 842.11 -20.25 -2.35% Stocks fell after major US retailer Target reported its Q1 earnings. Its operating margin rate was 5.3%, well below expectations because of the company’s efforts to reduce excess inventory as well as higher costs for freight and transportation, the company said. “Throughout the quarter, we faced unexpectedly high costs, driven by a number of factors, resulting in profitability that came in well below our expectations and well below where we expect to operate over time,” said CEO Brian Cornell. For the second quarter, the operating margin should remain low, varying  widely from 5.3%, the company said. For all of 2022, the operating income margin rate should be 6%. For comparison, Target expects its long-term margin to be at least 8%. Rising costs and excess inventory could slow down demand for goods – although most chemical companies had not noted any demand destruction when they discussed their first-quarter earnings. Attempts to lower inflation by the Federal Reserve could slow down the economy as well. It raised its benchmark interest rate by half a point at its last meeting in May, and similar hikes are expected for the rest of the year. The following table shows the US-listed shares of chemical companies followed by ICIS. Name $ Current Price $ Change % Change AdvanSix 46.16 -1.05 -2.21 Avient 47.55 -0.68 -1.41 Axalta Coating Systems 25.56 -0.91 -3.44 Braskem 17.05 -0.88 -4.88 Celanese 151.98 -3.54 -2.27 Dow 68.91 -1.06 -1.51 DuPont 64.61 -1.8 -2.71 Eastman 104.57 -2.33 -2.18 HB Fuller 66.96 -0.07 -0.1 Huntsman 35.76 -0.76 -2.08 Ingevity 68.26 0.55 0.81 Kronos Worldwide 16.33 -0.10 -0.61 LyondellBasell 111.18 -0.22 -0.2 Methanex 50.07 -0.98 -1.92 NewMarket 338.07 -1.77 -0.52 Olin 63.25 -1.98 -3.04 PPG 119.84 -4.49 -3.61 RPM International 84.63 -2.25 -2.59 Sherwin-Williams 259.57 -9.69 -3.6 Stepan 108.48 0.18 0.17 Chemours 41.63 -1.19 -2.78 Trinseo 46.28 0.2 0.43 Tronox 17.67 -0.69 -3.76 Univar Solutions 28.56 -0.47 -1.62 Venator Materials 1.76 -0.11 -5.88 Westlake 131.72 -4.58 -3.36 Thumbnail shows a stock-market chart. Image by Shutterstock. 

HOUSTON (ICIS)–New Hope Energy has announced plans to build a chemical recycling facility in Texas, in conjunction with a partial offtake agreement with TotalEnergies. Similar to New Hope Energy’s original facility in Tyler, Texas, this new facility will utilise Lummus Technologies pyrolysis process technology and will be able to process 310,000 tonnes/year of mixed plastic waste. New Hope Energy will target mixed plastic waste feedstock from material recovery facility (MRF) mixed plastic bales, among other sources. The plant is expected to be online in 2025. TotalEnergies will receive 100,000 tonnes of pyrolysis oil, with the intention of manufacturing sustainable polymers for food-grade applications. This comes as Missouri is in the final stages of signing into law House Bill 2485, a piece of legislation which supports chemical recycling operations, which they deem “advanced recycling”. Should the bill become law, Missouri would be the 19th state to adopt such legislation, following Mississippi, Kentucky, West Virginia and South Carolina earlier this year. The terminology “advanced recycling” is opposed by many organisations as it can be misleading as to the physical process of recycling and the marketing qualities of the technology. Many chemical recycling technologies have existed for years, though only recently have companies commissioned production units. This bill will amend the legal definitions of chemical recycling processes such as pyrolysis, solvolysis, gasification and depolymerization such that they would no longer be categorised under categories like “solid waste processing” or “incineration”. This would mean the investment, construction and running of chemical recycling facilities covered under these laws could grant them funding, taxation or environmental regulation as a recycling facility rather than as a waste to fuel or disposal facility. Moreover, adopting the legal definition of recycling opens the door for chemically recycled material to be used in future post-consumer recycled content mandates or as marketable recycled material. Despite the legal support chemical recyclers estimate that it will take at least another seven to 10 years to reach true commercial scale, and the bulk of the industry remains at pilot stage. According to the ICIS Chemical Recycling Supply Tracker, based on company announcements, roughly 1 million tons of chemical recycling capacity was expected in the US by the end of 2021. This figure is expected to increase to 5 million tons by the end of 2025, prior to announcement of this facility. The capacity does not reflect the full extent of the future market. As with traditional recycling methods, chemical recyclers see the ability to source sufficient high-enough quality waste volumes and increasing collection and sorting infrastructure as the key challenges to growth. In order to tackle difficult to recycle plastic waste, several recyclers are exploring partnerships with chemical recycling companies. Unusable plastic waste produced or pre-sorted from the mechanical recycling process could be prime feedstock for chemical recycling facilities. As chemical recycling facilities continue to be announced, concerns are growing with respect to future feedstock supply. ICIS has launched a new US recycled polyethylene (R-PE) commodity service covering prices for natural and mixed-coloured post-consumer HDPE bales on the East and West Coasts and bottle-derived or post-industrial recycled HDPE and LDPE resin, including blow molding grade flake and pellet, injection grade flake and film grade pellet. Additionally, this new service covers emerging trends in the mechanical recycling and polyolefin based chemical recycling markets. To subscribe to the new pricing service, or for further information, please contact clientsuccess@icis.com. In November 2021, ICIS launched a mixed plastic waste pricing service covering European prices for mixed-polyolefins waste bales, reject refuse-derived fuel (RDF) bales and reject materials recovery facility (MRF) bales. Along with this, the new service covers emerging trends in the chemical and mechanical recycling markets, as well as the burn-for-energy sector. To subscribe to the new pricing service, or for further information, please contact clientsuccess@icis.com.

LONDON (ICIS)–Germany must not reduce the use of biofuels from arable crops, the CEO of biofuels producer CropEnergies said on Wednesday, adding his voice to the country’s latest “fuel-versus-food” debate. The debate has been sparked by the surge in food prices in the wake of the Ukraine war. Federal environment minister Steffi Lemke wants to reduce production of biofuels from edible crops – thus freeing up more agricultural land for food production, which should help dampen the rise in food prices. “This discussion completely misses the point,” said Stephan Meeder, CEO of CropEnergies. Modern ethanol biorefineries process less than 4% and thus only a small proportion of the grain grown in the EU, he said. Furthermore, the grain they use was unsuitable for food, due to its low quality, he said. “It has been proven that the blending of renewable ethanol in Germany and Europe has no relevant impact on international grain prices,” he said. Moreover, fuel ethanol is only one part of the total production of a biorefinery, he said. One tonne of grain yields 300kg of ethanol, along with 400kg of animal feed and 300kg of biogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), he said. As such, biofuels production helps reduce imports of oil, and it provides protein feed for animals, replacing soy imports, he said. Furthermore, a move away from the use of biofuels would have a serious impact on the achievement of climate targets in the transport sector, in particular, he said. “In 2020, all biofuels placed on the market saved 13m tonnes of CO2 in Germany alone,” he said. “It is absurd that a green environment minister, of all people, is now putting this essential contribution to climate protection up for discussion,” Meeder said. Minister Lemke is a member of the Green Party. CYNICAL AND ABSURD Elmar Baumann, director general of German biofuels industry trade group VDB, said that Lemke’s proposals were “cynical”. The minister seemed to be using the Ukraine war and the high food prices as a pretext to please “a misguided clientele” that has been politicising the use of biofuels for many years, he said. He noted that biodiesel production also yields glycerine as a co-product, which is needed in many applications in the food, pharmaceutical and cosmetics sectors. A reduction of biodiesel production would imply a reduction in the availability of glycerine. The industry would then have to go back to producing fossil-based glycerine, which was an“absurd idea” in terms on climate and environmental policies, he added. The CEO of another German biofuels producer, Verbio, also criticised the minister’s plans. Without biofuels, Germany could not achieve its goal of becoming independent from Russian oil and gas, Claus Sauter said in a statement on Tuesday. He noted that biofuels were important in ensuring the future of the PCK Schwedt refining complex in eastern Germany, where Verbio has an ethanol plant. The Schwedt refining site will be immediately affected as Germany moves to ban imports of Russian oil. According to an internal environment ministry paper, Germany could phase out the use of biofuels, produced from food crops, by 2030, German news media reported on Wednesday. A European non-government organisation, Transport & Environment (T&E), said in a recent study, “Food not fuel: Why biofuels are a risk to food security”, that despite the Ukraine war impact on food prices, Europe turns 10,000 tonnes/day of wheat – the equivalent of 15m loaves of bread based on a typical 750g loaf – into ethanol for use in cars. Front page picture: Field of rapeseed – which can be used as feedstock for biofuels – in Germany; archive image Source: Guenter Fischer/imageBROKER/Shutterstock Please visit the ICIS Ukraine topic page

LONDON (ICIS)–UK inflation rose to a 40-year-high in April as energy and fuel costs continued to rise, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Wednesday. April’s 9% rise in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), which excludes housing costs, is the highest level since 1982, based on indicative ONS modelling for earlier periods which pre-date its current CPI series. The rise in April was up from 7% in March. UK households have faced higher energy, food and petrol costs as crude oil and gas prices have continued to rise, partly driven by the war in Ukraine. Also on 1 April, the UK government’s energy regulator Ofgem (Office of Gas and Electricity Markets) raised the price cap which limits the price energy suppliers can charge consumers. In the transport sector, costs rose as petrol prices were driven up by higher crude oil values. “Average petrol prices stood at 161.8 pence per litre in April 2022, compared with 125.5 pence per litre a year earlier. The April 2022 price is the highest recorded,” the ONS said in a statement. The Bank of England raised its key interest rate on 5 May to the highest level in more than a decade in a bid to curb escalating inflation levels. UK Q1 GDP data from the ONS on 12 May showed 0.8% growth for the quarter but contracted in March as consumer spending slowed due to a surge in living costs.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–UAE-based polyolefins producer Borouge on Wednesday said that it is planning to launch an initial public offering (IPO) and list on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) by early June this year. The IPO will consist of around 3bn ordinary shares, representing 10% of Borouge’s shares held by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Austria-based producer Borealis. The subscription period for the UAE retail offering will be from 23-28 May, while that for qualified investors will be from 23-30 May. The shares are expected to be admitted for trading on the ADX on 3 June. Borouge is a joint venture between ADNOC and Borealis. Post-IPO, ADNOC will have a 54% stake in Borouge, while Borealis’ stake will be 36%. Its production capacity currently stands at around 2.7m tonnes/year of polyethylene (PE) and 2.2m tonnes/year of polypropylene (PP), according to the company. In the first quarter of 2022, the company started up its fifth 480,000 tonne/year PP unit at its Ruwais site. The fifth PP unit boosted Borouge’s overall polyolefins production capacity to 5m tonnes/year. Development of the company’s phase four project at the Ruwais complex is underway. The $6.2bn Borouge 4 project is expected to be completed in 2025 and will boost the site’s polymers capacity to 6.4m tonnes/year. Borouge’s sales volumes from its consumer solutions and infrastructure solutions units totaled 2.5m tonnes/year and 1.7m tonnes/year in 2021. The company’s polymer products were mainly sold in Asia, representing about 59% of total sales volumes, as well as the Middle East and Africa – which, combined, accounted for around 33% of overall sales volumes. “Global polyolefins demand in Borouge’s markets is forecasted to account for approximately 86% of global polyolefin demand growth between 2022 and 2026, resulting in a forecasted 1.2x GDP growth in consumer solutions and approximately 1.4x GDP growth in infrastructure solutions,” the company said. (adds details throughout)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–UAE-based polyolefins producer Borouge on Wednesday said that is planning an initial public offering (IPO), and to list the company on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) by early June this year. The offering will consist of around 3bn ordinary shares representing 10% of the petrochemical producer’s issued share capital, Borouge said in a statement. The offering will run from 23 May to 28 May for retail investors. The company expects its shares to be admitted for trading on the ADX on 3 June. Borouge is a 50:50 joint venture between Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Austria-based producer Borealis. Under the IPO plan, ADNOC will hold a 54% shareholding in Borouge, while Borealis’ stake will be 36% in the joint venture firm. Borouge’s production capacity currently stands at around 2.7m tonnes/year of polyethylene (PE) and 2.2m tonnes/year of polypropylene (PP), according to the company. The company in March this year started up its new 480,000 tonne/year fifth polypropylene (PP) unit at its Ruwais site.