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Crude Oil30-Apr-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Economic growth in the eurozone
expanded in Q1, with GDP growing by 0.4%
compared with the previous quarter, according
to official data on Wednesday.
The economy also grew in the wider EU, with
seasonally adjusted GDP increasing by 0.3%,
statistics agency Eurostat said in a flash
estimate, which is subject to revision.
2024 Q2
2024 Q3
2024 Q4
2025 Q1
Eurozone
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.4
EU
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
Ireland (+3.2%) saw the highest increase
compared with the previous quarter, followed by
Spain and Lithuania (both +0.6%). Hungary
(-0.2%) was the only member state to record a
decrease, Eurostat said.
On a year-on-year basis, Q1 GDP rose by 1.2% in
the eurozone and by 1.4% in the EU.
Crude Oil30-Apr-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s manufacturing
activity shrank in April as export orders
weakened amid the intensifying trade war with
the US, official data showed on Wednesday.
New orders, production indexes down from
March
Caixin PMI down to 50.4 in April from 51.2
in March
2% of China’s GDP directly affected by US
tariffs – Nomura
The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI)
dropped to 49.0 in April, down from the March
reading of 50.5, which was the highest in 12
months, data from the National Bureau of
Statistics (NBS) showed.
A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in
the manufacturing sector, while a reading below
50 signals contraction.
Reciprocal trade tensions escalated in April as
punishing US tariffs of up to 145% on many
Chinese goods took effect, prompting Beijing to
retaliate with fresh duties of up to 125% on
imports from the US.
China’s
exports soared over 12% in March as
businesses rushed out shipments to front-run
the implementation of steep tariffs.
Production and demand slightly declined
compared to the previous month, indicating a
slowdown in both manufacturing and new orders,
according to the NBS.
The new order index dipped to 49.2%, down 2.6
percentage points from March, while the
production index went down to 49.8%, slowing by
2.8 percentage points from the previous month.
Key sectors, including equipment manufacturing,
high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods,
declined in April.
The non-manufacturing PMI was down to 50.4% in
April from 50.8% in the prior month, and the
composite PMI stood at a higher 51.4 in March
as compared to February’s 51.1.
Separately, the monthly PMI figure by private
news outlet Caixin fell to a low of 50.4 in
April from 51.2 in March, the lowest reading
since January.
Caixin’s manufacturing PMI survey focuses on
smaller, export-oriented companies, with a
greater emphasis on private sector firms.
“A renewed fall in new export orders … often
attributed to the impact of tariffs, led to a
slower and only marginal rise in total new
work. As a result, production growth likewise
eased on the month,” Caixin said.
As business optimism fell, firms also lowered
inventory levels, while job cuts also resumed
amid reduced capacity pressures, Caixin added.
Both supply and demand grew at a slower clip
despite continued market improvements, while
new export orders declined at the fastest rate
since July 2023 due to US tariffs of 145%, said
Wang Zhe, a senior economist at Caixin Insight
Group.
“The impact of the tariffs on the supply side,
however, was relatively limited. Manufacturers
continued to absorb existing orders, keeping
the gauge measuring output in expansionary
territory for the 18th consecutive month,” Wang
said.
A cloudy market outlook is resulting in subdued
business and consumer confidence are subdued,
making it harder to boost domestic demand.
“The ripple effects of the ongoing China-US
tariff standoff will gradually be felt in the
second and third quarters. As such,
policymakers should be well prepared, with
action taken sooner rather than later,” Wang
said.
Despite the deepening trade conflict, the path
to de-escalation through dialogue remains
unclear.
While some reports have surfaced suggesting
potential negotiations or a tiered approach to
tariff reduction from the US side, conflicting
statements from US officials and denials from
Beijing indicate that formal, substantive trade
talks are not currently underway.
TARIFFS TO DAMPEN GROWTH
“Assuming a 50% loss of exports to the US,
China might lose ~1.1% of GDP directly in the
near term. The actual loss will surely be
larger as the shock ripples through to other
sectors, especially the services sectors that
facilitate merchandise exports,” said
Japan-based Nomura Global Markets Research in a
note on 28 April.
“The US and China could reach a deal, but the
timing, scale, and content of such a deal
during this game of chicken is very uncertain,
as political leaders resist being the first to
blink.”
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo
Jiakun said on 29 April that the tariff war
“was initiated by the US”, adding that the US
“should seek dialogue based on equality,
respect and mutual benefits” and cease its
threats and pressures.
He was responding to US Treasury Secretary
Scott Bessent saying on 28 April that he
believed “it’s up to China to de-escalate,
because they sell five times more to us than we
sell to them”.
Thumbnail image shows Qingdao port in
Shandong province (Source:
Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
Visit the ICIS
Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on
chemicals and energy
Focus article by Jonathan Yee
Speciality Chemicals29-Apr-2025
BARCELONA (ICIS)–The trade war is already
hurting consumer and business sentiment and may
help cause a global recession as demand
collapses amid rampant chemicals overcapacity.
US retailers fear empty shelves, fueling
inflation
Uncertainty, chaos is hurting business,
dampening consumer sentiment
China chemicals demand growth could be
negative in 2025
China may exempt $46 billion of US goods
from tariffs including ethane, polyethylene
(PE), styrene polymers
Huge drop in May bookings for China imports
through US ports
Power back to normal in Spain after
nationwide outage on 28 April, chemical plants
restarting
System should be resilient to adapt to
swings in solar and wind production
In this Think Tank podcast, Will
Beacham interviews John
Richardson from the ICIS market
development team, Paul Hodges,
chairman of New Normal Consulting and ICIS gas
and cross-commodity expert Aura
Sabadus.
Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
presenter and interviewees, and do not
necessarily represent those of ICIS.
ICIS is organising regular updates to help
the industry understand current market trends.
Register here .
Read the latest issue of ICIS
Chemical Business.
Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s
ICIS
blogs.

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Acrylate Esters29-Apr-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Europe’s oxo-alcohols and
derivatives markets have been largely
characterized by uncertainty and cautious
behavior.
Offtake from the coatings sector but increases
in spring, but sentiment is subdued as players
are struggling to plan amid ongoing tariff
uncertainty and wider economic weakness.
Oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate reporter Marion
Boakye joins acrylate esters editor Mathew
Jolin-Beech and glycol ethers editor Cameron
Birch to discuss current conditions along the
oxo-alcohols value chain.
Speciality Chemicals29-Apr-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–There are signs of a resilient
undercurrent of demand for sustainable
chemicals that could accelerate over the coming
years in spite of tough economic conditions for
businesses and consumers, according to
Accenture’s chemicals lead.
Spending on capital goods has diminished since
the consumer purchasing spree during the
COVID-19 lockdown years, with manufacturing in
Europe on a contraction footing for most of the
last three years.
Hopes for a slow build back to a stronger
market cycle this year have been diminished in
the face of the economic hit from trade
tensions, but sustainable products demand has
been a more resilient sub-set of chemicals
products.
The sector is defined by Accenture as chemicals
for the manufacture of more
environmentally-friendly products and
conventional products that feed into the wider
sustainability trend, such as materials for the
solar photovoltaic or electric vehicle sectors.
“What is becoming clearer and clearer is the
end user still is asking for environmentally
friendly, sustainable products. All the brand
owners, OEMs, made their commitments and that
is pulling through the value chain,” said Bernd
Elser, global head of Accenture’s chemicals and
natural resources practice.
The professional services firm projects that the
market for “sustainability-related” chemicals
will grow from $340 billion in 2023 to $570
billion by 2028, driven by downstream moves
such as L’Oreal’s commitment to 95% bio-based
ingredient and H&M targeting 100%
sustainable packaging by 2030.
51% of respondents of a consumer survey carried
out by the firm in 2023 reported being
motivated to purchase and consume more
eco-friendly products. The number of consumers
willing to pay a premium for green products is
accelerating in the US, according to a series
of surveys by PDI Technologies.
The percentage of respondents claiming to be
willing to pay more for sustainable products
increased from 66% to 68% between 2022 and
2023, up to 80% in 2024.
“There is a price premium for certain segments
if you look at the announcements of brand
owners and OEMs, which I think is amazing,
because if you’ve followed that sector, we
didn’t see these announcements a few years
back. So no one would admit there’s a decent
market segment which is willing to pay,” Elser
said.
“But if you look at what the consumer is asking
for and what the brand owners are publicly
stating, I think something is changing in the
market,” he added.
SECTOR HESITANCE
Other analyst firms have produced data over the
last few years showing that, in terms of
upstream chemicals investment and
publicly-announced end user demand, the sector
lags many other industries such as steel.
The grim market conditions for European
manufacturing, slower than expected growth in
the electric vehicle market and the worst
downsizing in decades for sectors like German
automotive may be a driver of industry
hesitance.
With bottom cycle market conditions persisting
for years and spending, it is understandably
difficult to commit to large-scale new capital
expenditure in the face of deep widespread
cost-cutting.
Several large consumer names have also begun to
soft pedal their sustainability targets, with
Coca Cola shifting its 2030
goals to 2035, and reducing the target for
recycled content in its packaging from 50% to
35-40%.
Despite some softening in company targets, the
direction of travel remains for demand to
continue to firm over the next few years,
pointing to a likely period of supply imbalance
as end user companies draw closer to their
stated deadlines.
“We’re still left with a big gap if you look at
company announcements, especially of brand
owners; they communicated targets which require
significant supplies, and they set targets with
very aggressive timelines,” Elser said.
“I still think that there is a significant
supply demand imbalance, where the communicated
demand is a lot bigger than what you find in
real capacity out there,” he added.
SLOW RAMP-UP
Despite the likelihood of an uptick in
sustainability-related demand as 2030 and the
various decarbonization and sustainability
targets tied to it draws closer, the odds of a
sharp shift in chemicals production trends is
unlikely, according to Elser.
“I think there will not be a big jump all at
once, the market is not changing from one day
over the next,” he said.
“This is an asset-intensive industry, it takes
six, seven years to build a large-scale asset.
So I wouldn’t expect that kind of disruption,
which you may see in other sectors,” he added.
A potentially more bullish factor on supply is
the case of small and medium size producers,
where specific developments could be harder to
track than multinationals, but could be an
under-represented source of product.
“We don’t have the full view on the market,
especially if you talk about mid and smaller
companies, it might be harder to get the full
transparency on demand,” Elser said.
Given the timeline to greenlight, construct and
bring onstream substantial new capacity, the
window for new facilities to be announced in
time for 2030 is narrowing.
Despite still limited large-scale greenfield
investment, options like mass balance,
sustainable drop-in feedstock alternatives for
existing plants, and retrofitting existing
infrastructure could mean the supply gap may
not be as cavernous as it may look on paper.
“Let’s not forget, you still have that whole
angle of mass balancing, which gives you a bit
of room, where you use an existing asset, you
feed in a certain share of recycled, renewable
feedstock,” Elser said.
“If you look at announcements, product
launches, new solutions which are
sustainability related, there are thousands out
there. And if you look at large-scale capacity
announcements, not a lot.”
These more incremental shifts present a means
of taking the temperature of market demand
without having to commit hundreds of millions
of euros to a large-scale new unit.
“There must be a huge area where you do mass
balancing, or basically find ways to do that
with existing assets, which, I think it’s
logical if you want to test the market and try
to grow into that market,” he added.
Insight by Tom Brown
Petrochemicals29-Apr-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Europe melamine editor Melissa
Hurley interviews senior editor Sylvia
Traganida, deputy managing editor Deepika
Thapliyal, and market reporters Joy Foo and
Connor Phillips.
Market factors to consider ahead of May:
Asia melamine market grappling with weak
demand and increasing supply
Asia exports dropped in March but expected
to flow into Europe in May/June
Reduced melamine supply in Europe offset by
ongoing sluggish demand conditions
No tariff impact on US melamine so far
Global urea demand expected to slow from H2
May
China not resuming urea exports yet despite
the domestic season ending
Subdued European ammonia demand; waiting
for nitrates market to pick up
Natural gas TTF prices soften, but European
fertilizer producers reluctant to ramp up
production due low demand
To listen in a separate window, click here.
Additional reporting from Sylvia Traganida,
deputy managing editor Deepika Thapliyal,
market reporters Joy Foo and Connor
Phillips.
Ethylene29-Apr-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Borouge has
announced a series of expansion projects to
boost growth worth $165 million-$200 million in
earnings, the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
polymers major said on 28 April.
Borouge’s second ethane unit’s nameplate
capacity will be boosted by an additional 15%,
or 230,000 tonnes/year, and is to be completed
in Q4 2028 by Linde Engineering, the company
said.
The fourth and fifth polyethylene (PE) units
will also be expanded by Target Engineering
Construction, increasing nameplate capacity by
about 30%, to 700,000 tonnes/year from 540,000
tonnes/year, for each unit.
The project is scheduled to be ready for
start-up in Q1 2027.
In total, polyolefins production capacity is
expected to be boosted to over 6.6 million
tonnes/year by 2028.
“… We are strategically positioned for
accelerated growth. The expansions of our
ethylene and polyethylene capabilities will
enable Borouge to meet growing market demands,
unlock new revenue streams, and further
strengthen our global market position,” said
Borouge CEO Hazeem Sultan Al Suwaidi.
Borouge is 54%-owned by Abu Dhabi National Oil
Co (ADNOC) and 36%-owned by Austria plastics
manufacturer Borealis.
Ammonia28-Apr-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–US farmers have completed 24%
of the intended corn plantings with soybeans
now at 18%, according to the latest crop
progress report from the US Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
The current pace of the corn crop does slightly
trail the 25% achieved in 2024 but is ahead of
the five-year average of 22%.
Texas continues to be the top state with 74% of
their corn planted, followed by North Carolina
at 60%.
There is now 5% of the corn crop that has
emerged, which is behind the 6% from last
season but is above the five-year average of
4%.
For soybeans, 18% of the crop is sowed, which
is ahead of both the 17% rate in 2024 and the
five-year average of 12%.
Louisiana remains the leading state with 70% of
their acreage completed, followed by
Mississippi at 54%.
Cotton plantings are 15% completed with sorghum
21% sowed, while spring wheat is at 30%.
Ethylene28-Apr-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News from the week ended 25 April.
US chemical stocks may already be
signaling recession –
analyst
Plunging US chemical stock prices may already
be signaling a recession by year-end 2025,
one Wall Street analyst said.
Fire, winter freeze push US Ascend
into bankruptcy
Ascend Performance Materials was already
reeling from overcapacity in China and an
industrial recession when its main complex
caught on fire and a freeze shut down its
operations in Texas – events that contributed
to the bankruptcy of the nylon 6,6 producer.
IMF cuts GDP growth forecasts for
China to 4.0%; India to
6.2%
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut
its growth forecasts for China, India and
other developing Asian economies following
latest escalation in US-led trade war.
US tariffs enlarge woes in Asia
chemical freight market
Vast uncertainty stemming from the US’ tariff
moves has squashed hopes of any near-term
recovery for Asia chemical tanker market.
Fitch Ratings lowers global auto
outlook due to tariffs, forecasts 6.7% fall
in US sales
Fitch Ratings lowered its global automotive
sector outlook to “deteriorating” from
“neutral”, and lowered its US sales forecast
by 6.7% to 15.2 million from 16.3 million
because of US tariffs on auto
imports.
Dow expands Europe asset review,
delays Canada cracker
project
Dow is to widen its strategic review of
European assets and delay work on its planned
Canada net-zero cracker project on the heels
of a first-quarter net loss.
Chems in longest slump in decades as
tariffs stifle demand – Dow
CEO
The chemical industry is facing
demand-stifling tariffs just as it is in one
of its longest downturns in decades, the CEO
of US-based Dow said on Thursday.
Mexico’s improved fortunes on US
tariffs propping up petchems demand – Entec
exec
Mexico’s chemicals fortunes seem to be
turning for the better after the country was
spared from the most punitive US’ import
taxes, according to an executive at chemicals
distributor major Ravago’s Mexican
subsidiary.
INSIGHT: China mulls tariff
exemptions for US ethane, other
chemicals
China is considering exempting from tariffs
some US goods worth about $46 billion,
including chemicals such as ethane,
polyethylene (PE) and styrene polymers.
LyondellBasell to mitigate tariff
impact with global supply network –
CEO
LyondellBasell has optionality to mitigate
tariff impacts with its global supply network
across the US, Europe, Middle East and China,
its CEO said.
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